Oscar Picks & Predictions 2008-09
My annual thing and I've waited until within hours of the show to carve my picks and predictions in stone! Usually I have this done pretty well in advance.
Oh yeah ... I only do the big categories.
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Violet Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
My choice: Henson
My prediction: Cruz
OK, I didn't see Vicky Cristina Barcelona. I'm sure Cruz was great. I've sworn off Woody Allen films ever since the whole pervy Soon Yi thing. I loved TCCOBB and Henson was amazing. Giving Henson this award would be the most appropriate way of acknowledging what an awesome film TCCOBB is, and she deserves it for developing a truly unique character that added so immensely to the charm and humanity of her film.
Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder (seriously?)
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Health Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
My choice: Ledger
My prediction: Ledger
Ledger's performance in The Dark Knight was astounding and he won't get another shot at an Oscar. It's his, and it's deserved. It's also time for Brolin to win a gold man, but I don't think it's his year or the right film: If you give this award to Brolin, then it doesn't make sense unless you give one to Penn too. Which would be fine with me.
Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Kate Winslet, The Reader
Meryl Streep, Doubt
My choice: Winslet
My prediction: Winslet
I didn't see Leo's performance, but we all know nobody did and she won't win. So the real contenders here are the other four. Many think Winslet deserves it because she's been nominated so many times and never won. I think she deserves it because she was flat-out incredible in this amazing film. Her performance was a huge contribution to its power. That said, Streep was absolutely riveting in Doubt, but hey, she's already got a wall full of Oscars, which would make her win just boring. Except maybe to her.
Best Actor
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
My choice: Penn
My prediction: Rourke; possibly Langella
Rourke has the buzz, but Langella has the pedigree. I say give it to Penn. His performance was the most true and most skillful. I think you can make a case for Langella and Pitt too -- face it, if there's ever going to be a performance to give Pitt an Oscar for, it's this one. But given the field, I have to go with Penn. And yeah, I didn't see Jenkins' performance. Meant to but I never made it.
Best Director
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant, Milk
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
My choice: Van Sant
My prediction: Daldry
I think it's going to Daldry and I have no problem with that. I just hate to see Milk get shut out of the big awards, and I don't think Penn or Brolin will win.
Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
My choice: Tie: Milk or The Reader
My prediction: Slumdog Millionaire.
Yeah, Slumdog was a great movie, but not as great as Milk or The Reader, which were both absolutely phenomenal. But Slumdog will win -- it has the momentum. India deserves some really great things after the horror of Mumbai, and I don't begrudge them this award. I just don't think it was the best film of the year, but go anyway. It's really worth seeing. But if anything's gonna upset Slumdog, it'll be Milk, and I'll be delighted.
Oh yeah ... I only do the big categories.
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Violet Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
My choice: Henson
My prediction: Cruz
OK, I didn't see Vicky Cristina Barcelona. I'm sure Cruz was great. I've sworn off Woody Allen films ever since the whole pervy Soon Yi thing. I loved TCCOBB and Henson was amazing. Giving Henson this award would be the most appropriate way of acknowledging what an awesome film TCCOBB is, and she deserves it for developing a truly unique character that added so immensely to the charm and humanity of her film.
Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder (seriously?)
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Health Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
My choice: Ledger
My prediction: Ledger
Ledger's performance in The Dark Knight was astounding and he won't get another shot at an Oscar. It's his, and it's deserved. It's also time for Brolin to win a gold man, but I don't think it's his year or the right film: If you give this award to Brolin, then it doesn't make sense unless you give one to Penn too. Which would be fine with me.
Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Kate Winslet, The Reader
Meryl Streep, Doubt
My choice: Winslet
My prediction: Winslet
I didn't see Leo's performance, but we all know nobody did and she won't win. So the real contenders here are the other four. Many think Winslet deserves it because she's been nominated so many times and never won. I think she deserves it because she was flat-out incredible in this amazing film. Her performance was a huge contribution to its power. That said, Streep was absolutely riveting in Doubt, but hey, she's already got a wall full of Oscars, which would make her win just boring. Except maybe to her.
Best Actor
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
My choice: Penn
My prediction: Rourke; possibly Langella
Rourke has the buzz, but Langella has the pedigree. I say give it to Penn. His performance was the most true and most skillful. I think you can make a case for Langella and Pitt too -- face it, if there's ever going to be a performance to give Pitt an Oscar for, it's this one. But given the field, I have to go with Penn. And yeah, I didn't see Jenkins' performance. Meant to but I never made it.
Best Director
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant, Milk
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
My choice: Van Sant
My prediction: Daldry
I think it's going to Daldry and I have no problem with that. I just hate to see Milk get shut out of the big awards, and I don't think Penn or Brolin will win.
Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
My choice: Tie: Milk or The Reader
My prediction: Slumdog Millionaire.
Yeah, Slumdog was a great movie, but not as great as Milk or The Reader, which were both absolutely phenomenal. But Slumdog will win -- it has the momentum. India deserves some really great things after the horror of Mumbai, and I don't begrudge them this award. I just don't think it was the best film of the year, but go anyway. It's really worth seeing. But if anything's gonna upset Slumdog, it'll be Milk, and I'll be delighted.