Is Poker closer to Fortune Telling than Chess?

Jan 27, 2010 12:12

Poker is a game wherein a deck of 52 cards of 13 ranks of cards identically copied to 4 'suits.' These cards are distributed to the players in a set quantity, some cards may be visible to all players while some cards may be visible only to the player to whom the card was dealt. The players then place bets on whether they think that the cards which they were dealt are of higher arbitrary value than the cards which were dealt to all other players. If a player does not think that they can win a hand, they may forfeit their current bet & remove themselves from further play in that hand. After a certain point, additional cards may be dealt to remaining players or cards may be traded in by remaining players for different randomly selected cards. If all players except one fail to meet current bets, the remaining player gains all bets. If more than one player satisfies all bets, then hands are displayed and the player with the highest valued hand wins all bets.

One of the simplest forms of Poker involves 5 cards dealt to each player, shown only to that player. A small bet is added by each player before cards are dealt, then each player may meet current bets, meet current bets and add a bet, or resign from the hand. This continues an arbitrary number of times around, then the bets are resolved as above.

In this version of Poker, the player's knowledge of their opponents' hands is extremely thin, as it is the number of hands possible discluding those which the player holds in their own hand. Thus, on a purely mechanical level, this form of Poker is a game of solitaire: what is the probability that your hand is stronger than the other possible hands with this specific number of opposing hands?

For information on the hands of an opponent, one must look outside of the mechanics of the game. It becomes a social game, of determining what your opponent has in their hand by watching for social cues (do they scratch their ear when they have a good hand?) and their patterns of play (do they often bet heavily on a weak hand hoping to 'bluff' the other players?). This is a metagame of Poker, an emergent play not directly supported by the rules of the game. But, without this metagame, Poker is just a solitaire game which happens to have people taking the place of the unknown opposing hands.

In Chess, there is no random chance. All of the pieces' positions and movement patterns are known. It is possible to know the play patterns of your opponent, but that is most useful in determining what to study for acting against them, not in play itself (this is arguable, but as chess is essentially the same game without knowledge of the opponent's history, I will take it as rote). Therefore, there is no metagame to Chess, it is a purely mechanical game.

In fortune telling, knowledge of one's target is essential. If you have prior knowledge and experience with a client, you will have an advantage both in the types of readings which they expect (do they like vague mystery?) and of knowing better how to gauge their reactions (Do they flinch when you mention their husband?). Whether using astrology, tarot, or the entrails of a cat, the mechanism is unimportant, it is just a way of focusing the client and a way of focusing yourself on the client. Fortune telling is pure metagame.

So, is Poker exactly the same as fortune telling? If you can read the other person well they give you money? No, as there are important mechanics. But, the mechanics are arguably less important than the metagame. As the mechanics are everything in Chess and the metagame is everything in fortune telling, I would argue that Poker is closer in spirit and action to fortune telling than Chess.
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