North Carolina voters opposed to anti-gay marriage amendment?

[tko_ak]

A new poll has found that voters in North Carolina - a southern state - are narrowly divided on a constitutional ban of gay marriage. The Elon University poll, which has a margin of error of 4% and 620 participants, found that 43% of respondents support a hypothetical ban, while 50% are opposed. The poll is in response to the state GOP calling for

Comments

[tko_ak]

Yes (although Arizona rejected theirs in 2006, and passed it in 2008). You don't have to sell me on the reality that these amendments pass in both red states and blue states.

That said, they tend to pass by overwhelming margins in southern states. Margins of anti-gay marriage amendments:

Northern states, 2004:

Michigan - 59-41% (Kerry)
Montana - 67-33% (Bush)
North Dakota 73-27% (Bush)
Ohio - 62-38% (Bush)
Oregon - 57-43% (Kerry)
Utah - 66-34% (Bush)

2006:

Colorado - 56-44%
Idaho - 63-37%
South Dakota - 52-48%
Wisconsin - 59-41%

2008:

California - 52-48%
Arizona: 56-44%

Average "Yes" vote for northern states: 60%
---------

Southern states, 2004 (all went for Bush):

Arkansas - 75-25%
Georgia - 76-24%
Kentucky - 75-25%
Mississippi - 86-14%
Oklahoma - 76-24%

2006:

South Carolina - 78-22%
Tennessee - 81-19%
Virginia - 57-43%

2008:

Florida - 62-38%

Average "Yes" vote for southern states: 74%

Obviously, the averages don't mean much because they don't take into account that there are differences in the number of "northern" and "southern states," or how many votes were cast. Still, a 14% difference is a statistically significant difference.