Good Fairy of Monetary Policy Killed in Train Wreck!
Last September I wrote an analysis piece.
http://grndexter.livejournal.com/105429.html
IN it I wrote that the people who know what's going on economically are: "...hoping the Good Fairy of Monetary Policy appears and grants them some free wishes." Well... like I said then and as the title of this piece indicates - it ain't gonna happen.
If you haven't read that post, you might want to do so.
Here's where we are NOW. If you take a bucket and start pouring water into it, no matter how slowly you pour, as long as you're pouring faster than the evaporation rate, eventually that bucket is going to fill up. Reasonable people would then stop pouring, and only pour more money... I mean water... into the system... I mean bucket, when the water is used by someone or it evaporates below a pre-determined optimum water level.
But as indicated in the above referenced piece, BBB (Bungling Ben Bernanke) hasn't been pouring water into the bucket. He has a 5 gallon bucket and a 2" hose, and he's got the hose running full blast! QE? Too much money, too fast. Buying Treasury notes? Too much money too fast. Government spending supported by FED loans? Open the valve!!! MORE MORE FASTER FASTER!!! ie Greenspaz and BBB have made a hell of a mess. Damned water/money EVERYWHERE!
Of course, leaving the simile, when you create that much money, the pressure of it will sooner or later find holes to leak through and it will go where you don't want it to go. When you start to see references to hyper-inflation in the popular press (as lately) you KNOW you're in the soup because if non-economists can see it (finally), then it has become the elephant on the bathroom scale! And if it's THAT obvious, then people will have what they call, "inflationary expectations" which means they'll start looking for higher wages to pay the higher inflationary prices. (And no, Ben - inflationary expectations do NOT create inflation. They are a RESULT of it.) So BBB has been pouring all that money into the overseas markets while controlling the domestic banks - trying to create a "recovery" without letting the inflationary cat out of the bag.
But the global economy is just that - it's GLOBAL. Ben's sneaky-pete secret overseas hyper-inflation is sneaking back to domestic markets. So... as I said and have been saying for some time - hyper-inflation is upon us!
But here's the wrinkle in the sheets that should keep you from sleeping. When most people consider economic and monetary phenomena like inflation and monetary policy - they forget that the US Dollar (USD)is in a unique position in the global system. The USD is the principle Reserve Currency of a huge part of the world. What that means is that nations all over the world use Dollars to back-up their currency - they establish the value of their currency by holding USDs in their vaults/on their global balance sheets.
Now, let's go back to BBB and his bucket and hose. Here's what the status of reserve currency means when we start talking about inflation and hyper-inflation... picture BBB standing there with his hose running full blast into a 5 gallon bucket... at the foot of the Hoover Dam. The water behind the dam represents the number of US Dollars being held in reserve around the world.
So... now picture nations losing faith in the dollar's value, caused by, saaaay a little hyper-inflation. Do these nations want the value of THEIR currency to lose value as the USD goes into hyper-inflation? Oh HELL no! So what do they do? What they're doing is they have begun to switch from just using dollars, to using a "market basket" of currencies as reserve. This is a transition phase between using the USD and using something else. During the transition phase. They're opening the spill gates on the Hoover Dam and people Are starting to notice the rising levels of water. So they start to fear that maybe the dam isn't so sturdy as they thought, and they start climbing the sides of the canyon below the dam. As they climb, they change the percentage of their currency mix held in reserve - using less and less USDs. And as they use less and less USDs, the spill gates open wider and wider... until eventually the dam itself (international monetary policy) can't handle the pressure and breaks - and you get a FLOOD of dollars roaring down stream in a spectacular display, you get a tidal wave of cheap money!
And the USD is destroyed.
The process has already started and I believe it may have gone too far to stop. One thing is certain - UNLESS BBB changes his policies and SOON!, and UNLESS the US government STOPS SPENDING NOW!, I'm looking for ways to get up that canyon wall faster!
(And as a side note - the way out isn't through other currencies - when the USD goes, unless the other nations have taken some extraordinary steps - they'll go too.)
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts