Obama needs but one swing state to win
(note: my new blog at gregoryharbin.com is now up and running. This will slowly transition to a more personal page, with gh.c being for my articles)
I put together my first electoral map, based on survey data from SurveyUSA which was released yesterday. Rather than assigning delegates in the states that were close, I went ahead and designated a 'swing state' those which have undecided numbers that would put one or the other candidate over the top. With this metric, I have Florida, New Jersey, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas, and Virginia as purples. After assigning the rest, I have Obama with 267 electoral votes, McCain with 139.
I expect Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina to be Obama's main focuses, as they have very close margins, and any of the states would tip the electoral scales over the magic 270 number. McCain has a much harder battle, needing to win every single swing state to win.
There are of course unforeseen irregularities that could change this map, and I'm sure I'll have to redraw it many times before November, but as of now, this is how it looks.
I put together my first electoral map, based on survey data from SurveyUSA which was released yesterday. Rather than assigning delegates in the states that were close, I went ahead and designated a 'swing state' those which have undecided numbers that would put one or the other candidate over the top. With this metric, I have Florida, New Jersey, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas, and Virginia as purples. After assigning the rest, I have Obama with 267 electoral votes, McCain with 139.
I expect Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina to be Obama's main focuses, as they have very close margins, and any of the states would tip the electoral scales over the magic 270 number. McCain has a much harder battle, needing to win every single swing state to win.
There are of course unforeseen irregularities that could change this map, and I'm sure I'll have to redraw it many times before November, but as of now, this is how it looks.