since you left me out in the cold last fall

[gregoryharbin]

I have now seen most of the films nominated in this year's Oscars (yes, even you, Atonement; Atonement, how you thrill in the first fifty minutes, and then fall into almost complete squalor for the rest of the running time, Atonement, whom I hope the novel, whose beginning is almost more utterly rapturous, does not fall apart as well upon entering her second epoch), and therefore feel somewhat strong in my expertise on the subject, and as well rather confident in my ability to prognosticate.

After some thought, I decided to rank the Best Picture nominees thusly, ignoring the Oscars, and only looking into my soul for her desires:

5. Juno
4. Atonement
3. Michael Clayton
2. No Country For Old Men
1. There Will Be Blood

The predominant theory of Academy voting is that the word 'Best' should most properly be replaced by 'Most': Most Acting, Most Cinematography, Most Writing.

By this measure, then There Will Be Blood should win for Most Directing, and Le Scaphandre et le Papillon for Most Cinematography.

Day-Lewis is an obvious lock for Most Acting by a Male--even reading the 'if I say I am an oil man, you'll have to agree' speech in the novel 'Oil!' brings chills to my spine), although why Mathieu Amalric is not nominated, I don't know. Does the Academy think that acting can't be done by the voice? Johnny Depp was really better than that glorious portrayal?

Casey Affleck is a lock for Most Acting in a Supporting Role, as amazed as I am to hear those words typed onto the page.

I can't decide about Best Actress. Ellen Page wins for Most Acting in a Film Anyone Has Ever Freaking Heard Of. Blanchett wins for Best Job Recreating A Role You Already Won An Oscar For, Too Bad the Film Sucked. Marion Cotillard is the dark horse, and in veritas, I hope she gets it.

Saoirse Ronan is a lock, a lock I say, for Best Supporting. She was by far the best part of Atonement.

I cannot see Blood not sweeping Directing, Art, Editing, Adapted, and Picture.

I'm still annoyed that my boy Greenwood from Radiohead is being denied his Best Score Oscar because he quoted from Brahms. Oscar rules are mistaken here. Score is therefore a real toss-up. I hated Atonement's score, but it's the sort of thing that will win awards.

Original Screenplay, I believe, with go to Michael Clayton. Give Tony Gilroy an Oscar so he'll stick to this sort of film. He doesn't need to waste his talent on endless Bourne films.

Um, so a sort of list?

Best Picture
* There Will Be Blood

Best Animated Feature
* Ratatouille

Best Documentary Feature
* Sicko

Best Actor
* Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood

Best Actress
* Ellen Page - Juno

Best Supporting Actor
* Casey Affleck - The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford

Best Supporting Actress
* Saoirse Ronan - Atonement

Best Director
* Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood

Best Cinematography
* Janusz Kaminski - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Best Art Direction
* Jack Fisk and Jim Erickson - There Will Be Blood

Best Costume Design
* Marit Allen - La Vie en Rose

Best Film Editing
* Dylan Tichenor - There Will Be Blood

Best Makeup
* Ve Neill and Martin Samuel - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End

Best Original Score
* Dario Marianelli - Atonement

Best Original Song
* Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova - "Falling Slowly" from Once

Best Original Screenplay
* Michael Clayton - Tony Gilroy

Best Adapted Screenplay
* There Will Be Blood - Paul Thomas Anderson, from Oil!, novel by Upton Sinclair