2010 Oscar Forecast
Actually, I'm only going to talk Best Picture, because it's kind of an interesting category this year. For the first time since the very early years of the Academy, there are ten nominees, not five. They are:
Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9 (this film picked up some unexpected noms - may be an Avatar protest vote)
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
A Serious Man
Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire (what idiot formalized this?? That's a byline, not a subtitle!)
Up
Up in the Air
Some people might be interested to know which five would have been "The" five under the old rules. The "real" nominees. Fortunately, that is quite easy to discern in this case. First, re-order by total number of nominations:
(9) Avatar
(9) The Hurt Locker
(8) Inglourious Basterds
(6) Precious
(6) Up in the Air
(5) Up
(4) District 9
(3) An Education
(2) The Blind Side
(2) A Serious Man
The bold-faced films also just happen to be the five films nominated for Best Director. Therefore there can be no doubt they are the "real" Best Picture nominees. The winner will be one of them.
BTW, The Hurt Locker will be the winner. Probably. Up in the Air has a fighting chance, and Precious could sneak attack. I get the vibe that most people reacted to Inglourious Basterds the same way I did: brilliant acting and writing, but on the broader levels too... something... to be Best Picture.
And what about current favorite Avatar? Here's the problem: voting for Best Picture (and ONLY Best Picture) is done instant-runoff style with ranked ballots (meaning voters rank all ten films instead of just picking their favorite, and candidates are eliminated until one has over 50% of the vote). IR voting gives an advantage to broad appeal over passionate niche support. The Hurt Locker, Up in the Air, and Precious (in that order) have broad appeal. I can't imagine many voters placing Hurt Locker lower than 3rd. Avatar's response, however, has been noticeably more polarized. Most voters will either place it at the top of their list or near the bottom. Which means if it fails to get a 50+ majority in the first round it will get trounced in subsequent rounds. Far from being the front-runner, I suspect it actually has the worst chance of all five to win the Oscar.
Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9 (this film picked up some unexpected noms - may be an Avatar protest vote)
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
A Serious Man
Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire (what idiot formalized this?? That's a byline, not a subtitle!)
Up
Up in the Air
Some people might be interested to know which five would have been "The" five under the old rules. The "real" nominees. Fortunately, that is quite easy to discern in this case. First, re-order by total number of nominations:
(9) Avatar
(9) The Hurt Locker
(8) Inglourious Basterds
(6) Precious
(6) Up in the Air
(5) Up
(4) District 9
(3) An Education
(2) The Blind Side
(2) A Serious Man
The bold-faced films also just happen to be the five films nominated for Best Director. Therefore there can be no doubt they are the "real" Best Picture nominees. The winner will be one of them.
BTW, The Hurt Locker will be the winner. Probably. Up in the Air has a fighting chance, and Precious could sneak attack. I get the vibe that most people reacted to Inglourious Basterds the same way I did: brilliant acting and writing, but on the broader levels too... something... to be Best Picture.
And what about current favorite Avatar? Here's the problem: voting for Best Picture (and ONLY Best Picture) is done instant-runoff style with ranked ballots (meaning voters rank all ten films instead of just picking their favorite, and candidates are eliminated until one has over 50% of the vote). IR voting gives an advantage to broad appeal over passionate niche support. The Hurt Locker, Up in the Air, and Precious (in that order) have broad appeal. I can't imagine many voters placing Hurt Locker lower than 3rd. Avatar's response, however, has been noticeably more polarized. Most voters will either place it at the top of their list or near the bottom. Which means if it fails to get a 50+ majority in the first round it will get trounced in subsequent rounds. Far from being the front-runner, I suspect it actually has the worst chance of all five to win the Oscar.