Egypt: The World is Watching
Hosni Mubarak, President of Egypt for the past thirty years resigned today after almost three weeks of constant protests from his citizens. Pretty much the whole world is rejoicing with the Egyptian protests, as by most accounts the Mubarak regime made a mockery of democracy and fostered a climate of fear to cement his rule. Once that fear began to dissipate, as everyday Egyptians took courage from the actions of their Tunisian brothers in North Africa, Mubarak's grip on power became tenuous, then untenable until finally he admitted defeat and resigned. While everyone else is rejoicing, I'm here to ask:
NOW WHAT?
Elections are not scheduled until September, and in the interim it looks likely that the military is going to take over and run the country until then. Right now, there are few candidates who look like they're about to emerge and ride the wave of popular protest to the Presidential Palace, although the new Vice-President, Omar Suleiman, could be one candidate. However, it's not yet clear whether he'll carry the tarnish from the last days of the Mubarak regime with him.
It is an extremely delicate and dangerous position right now: Egypt has been a clear ally of the US and Israel in the Middle East in recent decades, and now those relationships are completely up in the air. Depending on who takes control, it could be the start of a glorious renaissance of democracy in the Middle East or a reversion to the religious-dominated power structures similar to those found in Saudi Arabia and Iran - two other key players in the region.
The Israeli-angle in this whole situation has either been downplayed or forgotten. I believe that Israel has grown accustomed to a relatively stable and nonbelligerent neighbor to her south, allowing Israel to concentrate on her more dangerous northern border with Lebanon and the two Palestinian territories. With recent developments, Israel has to be extremely nervous as to which direction Egypt will now take and how this will affect the tenuous peace negotiations that have been on and off for years.
Finally, I believe that the momentous event the world has seen today sets a highly dangerous precedent: while the will of the people must be observed, there are proper mechanisms for the transfer of power and stepping outside of those clear boundaries must not be taken likely. This was clearly a different set of circumstances, but care must be taken that the Egyptians don't resort to these methods on a regular basis to voice their dissatisfaction with the direction their politicians are taking the country. Additionally, the fact that the military is now in power makes this a situation on a knife edge: will the army leaders relinquish power peacefully and absolutely, or will we end up with a situation like that in Pakistan when the head of the army, Pervez Musharraf took control of the government and led the country in both a civilian and military capacity - to the broad condemnation of the world.
The Egyptian people are now, rightly, celebrating a triumph of popular will over one man's stubborn opinion that he was best placed to lead the country. However, the battle is only just beginning and is far from over - the fight to shape a new Egypt and quite possibly a new Middle East is now on. Never before has such an opportunity arisen for true, Western-principled democracy to established itself in the Middle East as a result of a native-led uprising. Let's hope and pray that this opportunity will not be squandered.
Egypt: The world is watching. What are you going to do?
NOW WHAT?
Elections are not scheduled until September, and in the interim it looks likely that the military is going to take over and run the country until then. Right now, there are few candidates who look like they're about to emerge and ride the wave of popular protest to the Presidential Palace, although the new Vice-President, Omar Suleiman, could be one candidate. However, it's not yet clear whether he'll carry the tarnish from the last days of the Mubarak regime with him.
It is an extremely delicate and dangerous position right now: Egypt has been a clear ally of the US and Israel in the Middle East in recent decades, and now those relationships are completely up in the air. Depending on who takes control, it could be the start of a glorious renaissance of democracy in the Middle East or a reversion to the religious-dominated power structures similar to those found in Saudi Arabia and Iran - two other key players in the region.
The Israeli-angle in this whole situation has either been downplayed or forgotten. I believe that Israel has grown accustomed to a relatively stable and nonbelligerent neighbor to her south, allowing Israel to concentrate on her more dangerous northern border with Lebanon and the two Palestinian territories. With recent developments, Israel has to be extremely nervous as to which direction Egypt will now take and how this will affect the tenuous peace negotiations that have been on and off for years.
Finally, I believe that the momentous event the world has seen today sets a highly dangerous precedent: while the will of the people must be observed, there are proper mechanisms for the transfer of power and stepping outside of those clear boundaries must not be taken likely. This was clearly a different set of circumstances, but care must be taken that the Egyptians don't resort to these methods on a regular basis to voice their dissatisfaction with the direction their politicians are taking the country. Additionally, the fact that the military is now in power makes this a situation on a knife edge: will the army leaders relinquish power peacefully and absolutely, or will we end up with a situation like that in Pakistan when the head of the army, Pervez Musharraf took control of the government and led the country in both a civilian and military capacity - to the broad condemnation of the world.
The Egyptian people are now, rightly, celebrating a triumph of popular will over one man's stubborn opinion that he was best placed to lead the country. However, the battle is only just beginning and is far from over - the fight to shape a new Egypt and quite possibly a new Middle East is now on. Never before has such an opportunity arisen for true, Western-principled democracy to established itself in the Middle East as a result of a native-led uprising. Let's hope and pray that this opportunity will not be squandered.
Egypt: The world is watching. What are you going to do?