Там прямые ссылки на ежегодные прогнозы. Каждый год обновляет с обзором что и как получилось на самом деле. Начал он это в 2018. rodneybrooks .com /category/dated-predictions/
В январе 2024 было о пределе LLM. Следующий выпуск в январе 2025. rodneybrooks .com /predictions-scorecard-2024-january-01/
...I concluded my talk encouraging people to do good things with LLMs but to not believe the conceit that their existence means we are on the verge of Artificial General Intelligence.
By the way, there are the initial signs that perhaps LLMs have already passed peak hype. And the ever interesting Cory Doctorow has written a piece on what will be the remnants after the LLM bubble has burst. He says there was lots of useful stuff left after the dot com bubble burst in 2000, but not much beyond the fraud in the case of the burst crypto bubble.
He tends to be pessimistic about how much will be left to harvest after the LLM bubble is gone. Meanwhile right at year’s end the lawsuits around LLM training are starting to get serious.
Ссылка на wiki конечно лишняя :), а вот за "предел LLM" - огромное спасибо. LLM - это лишь одна из необходимых, но не достаточных подсистем на пути к настоящему интеллекту.
Вот кто это.
wikipedia .org /wiki/Rodney_Brooks
Вот его блог.
rodneybrooks .com /blog/
Там прямые ссылки на ежегодные прогнозы. Каждый год обновляет с обзором что и как получилось на самом деле. Начал он это в 2018.
rodneybrooks .com /category/dated-predictions/
В январе 2024 было о пределе LLM. Следующий выпуск в январе 2025.
rodneybrooks .com /predictions-scorecard-2024-january-01/
...I concluded my talk encouraging people to do good things with LLMs but to not believe the conceit that their existence means we are on the verge of Artificial General Intelligence.
By the way, there are the initial signs that perhaps LLMs have already passed peak hype. And the ever interesting Cory Doctorow has written a piece on what will be the remnants after the LLM bubble has burst. He says there was lots of useful stuff left after the dot com bubble burst in 2000, but not much beyond the fraud in the case of the burst crypto bubble.
He tends to be pessimistic about how much will be left to harvest after the LLM bubble is gone. Meanwhile right at year’s end the lawsuits around LLM training are starting to get serious.
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Спасибо.
С ним трудно поспорить, глыба.
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