The tyranny of dice
Scrabble players often discuss the extent to which luck is a factor in the game, especially after the kind of game in which your opponent has all the power tiles, and you're stuck trying to swap your multiple Us or Is...more than once. Many that I have spoken to suggest that that among players of approximately equal ability (lets say within 200 rating points of each other), the luck factor probably accounts for about 30 per cent of the result, with the rest accounted for by strategy, word knowledge and anagramming skill...not to mention accurate tile tracking.
In the strategic boardgaming hobby, there's also a lot of talk about luck, especially in games that involve a dice rolling. Most gamers have played more than one game of Settlers of Catan in which they have painstakingly placed their first settlements on 8s and 6s, only to find that 3s and 11s come up just as often.
Rail Baron, a classic Avalon Hill railroad game, is a case in point. For those unfamiliar with the game, the object is to earn money by buying a network of railroad lines that can take you to destinations on a US map. The destinations are determined by dice rolls and you roll dice to get around the board. The better your rail network, the more destinations you can reach on your own lines, thus avoiding paying your opponents to use their lines.
Since I arrived at the World Boardgaming Championships, I have played four games of Rail Baron -- three preliminary heats and a semi-final. I won two and lost two, and luck was a significant factor in all the games. In one of the games I lost, I had the best rail network and needed to roll a 5 on two dice to win the game. I rolled a 4, and my opponent managed to get home before me. In today's semi-final, I had a terrible rail network because early on in the game, I rolled very low numbers, thus allowing my opponents to buy up the good rail lines before I arrived at destnations. But because of the luck of the dice, I emerged victorious: I never rolled destinations in the Southwest, where I had no track whatsoever, and frequently rolled the Northwest, which was my best region. And in the endgame, when I and two other players were trying to win by going home, I rolled a trip to Denver, two pips away from my home city.
If dice luck is such an important factor in Rail Baron, why is it that the same players tend to dominate year after year? Tomorrow will be my second trip to the finals (although the last was in 1999), and I have twice been first alternate -- i.e. the sixth best player, just out of the 5-player final. (About 50 people play in the tournament). Most if not all of my fellow semi-finalists have been there before, so there must be some skill involved somewhere.
Does dice luck -- like Scrabble tile luck -- eventually even out, allowing the best players to rise to the top? Or are some players just plain lucky?
In the strategic boardgaming hobby, there's also a lot of talk about luck, especially in games that involve a dice rolling. Most gamers have played more than one game of Settlers of Catan in which they have painstakingly placed their first settlements on 8s and 6s, only to find that 3s and 11s come up just as often.
Rail Baron, a classic Avalon Hill railroad game, is a case in point. For those unfamiliar with the game, the object is to earn money by buying a network of railroad lines that can take you to destinations on a US map. The destinations are determined by dice rolls and you roll dice to get around the board. The better your rail network, the more destinations you can reach on your own lines, thus avoiding paying your opponents to use their lines.
Since I arrived at the World Boardgaming Championships, I have played four games of Rail Baron -- three preliminary heats and a semi-final. I won two and lost two, and luck was a significant factor in all the games. In one of the games I lost, I had the best rail network and needed to roll a 5 on two dice to win the game. I rolled a 4, and my opponent managed to get home before me. In today's semi-final, I had a terrible rail network because early on in the game, I rolled very low numbers, thus allowing my opponents to buy up the good rail lines before I arrived at destnations. But because of the luck of the dice, I emerged victorious: I never rolled destinations in the Southwest, where I had no track whatsoever, and frequently rolled the Northwest, which was my best region. And in the endgame, when I and two other players were trying to win by going home, I rolled a trip to Denver, two pips away from my home city.
If dice luck is such an important factor in Rail Baron, why is it that the same players tend to dominate year after year? Tomorrow will be my second trip to the finals (although the last was in 1999), and I have twice been first alternate -- i.e. the sixth best player, just out of the 5-player final. (About 50 people play in the tournament). Most if not all of my fellow semi-finalists have been there before, so there must be some skill involved somewhere.
Does dice luck -- like Scrabble tile luck -- eventually even out, allowing the best players to rise to the top? Or are some players just plain lucky?