Exercises in Utility and Futility

[gaijineli]

I've been doing a fair amount of phone banking, calling people who are registered Democrats in the region and asking them who they're going to vote for on Tuesday. (Pennsylvania's primary is on Tuesday, for those of you reading this in the future.) I broke the 500 call mark yesterday. That's a lot of people, and I've talked to a lot of Obama

Comments

[vrax]

Thanks for all your efforts man!

[blairwitchgreen]

Man, I really appreciate all the hard work you're doing up there in PA, and it sounds like you're doing a great job... so the recent storyline is that Obama's been closing in on Clinton in the polls despite the smears and such (or maybe even because of them). What's your sense from the ground-- does Obama have a chance of actually winning?

[gaijineli]

It's a tough call. I'd say that yes, he does have a shot, some polls currently have him one or two points behind Hillary, others are saying five. At the Obama office, a win for Clinton at five is still enough to clinch the nomination. At ten, she's going to probably stick in until NC comes online and she gets smashed. Which I don't think is going to happen. My prediction is that Clinton wins by four percent and drops out afterwards.

My area is a Clinton stronghold, so if we win any votes, we're lucky. But on the other hand, there is still a lot of doubt among Clinton supporters, and the region loves Casey. He's the classic Catholic Democrat. Casey is a major Obama supporter. Philly is Obama turf, the middle of the state should probably pull even, Pittsburgh is tough to say, but I like Obama's chances there.