May 06, 2005 11:51
More election stuff. Sorry.
I think the big story that the media hasn't seen is where this puts the Lib Dems for next time.
The Lib Dems have gone to within spitting distance in dozens of previously safe Labour seats (eg Oxford East, 10000 majority goes to 1000). At the end of their third term Labour are inevitably going to be suffering in the polls - whoever replaces Thatcher as Labour leader is going to be pretty much screwed whatever they do in the same way that Major was.
The Lib Dems have also gained a lot in tight Tory-Labour marginals such as Reading East where a Labour lead of 10000 over the Lib-Dems (Tories ahead of LD by 5000) has gone to a Tory lead of 5000 (Labour ahead 4500) over the Lib Dems. These are people who don't want Tory but not strongly enough to tactically vote Labour in spite of their problems with them. In 2009/10 when Labour will undoubtedly be losing more seats (if not the election) the Lib-Dems can say "Hey, we're a credible alternative to the Tories if you don't want a fourth Labour government." Even if they can't win it from this far back they could possibly push Labour into third and make it a Lib-Dem marginal.
Assuming a continued disenchantment with Labour and that the Tories don't suddenly move to the mainstream or the country to the right then I don't think 100 Lib Dem MPs at the next election is out of the question. That would be real three party politics and quite possibly a hung parliament.