"At the very least, it's Kerry's race to lose."
I almost always find myself talking about William Saletan's Ballot Box columns with my friends and colleagues. He is a pretty smart guy.
That's why I'm so happy today that he has taken a look at the post-convention polling and determined that it's Kerry's race to lose. Yay!
There are four reasons:
That's why I'm so happy today that he has taken a look at the post-convention polling and determined that it's Kerry's race to lose. Yay!
There are four reasons:
- Kerry has gotten a small, but measureable bounce in the polls.
- Kerry has maintained a strong lead in the polls, approaching 50%, for a while. Saletan writes, "Kerry is that close to making a Bush victory mathematically impossible."
- Bush's elect, re-elect, and job approval numbers are flatlining or falling.
- Kerry voters are solidly in his camp. After the convention, only 5% of Kerry voters think there's a good chance they'll change their minds. Bush's numbers are slightly higher.