You have longer to live than you probably think you do.
So I went onto Statistics New Zealand the other day and downloaded the New Zealand Life Tables (2000-2002).
I wanted to make this graph:
&chts=000000,25&cht=lc&chd=t:76.3,76.9,77,77,77.3,77.6,77.9,78.2,78.5,78.8,79.2,79.8,80.6,81.7,83.1,85,87.4,90.2,93.6|81.1,81.6,81.7,81.8,81.9,82,82.1,82.3,82.4,82.7,83,83.4,84.1,85,86.1,87.4,89.2,91.5,94.4|69,69.7,69.8,69.9,70.2,70.6,70.9,71.3,71.7,72.3,73,74.2,75.7,77.7,80,82.8,85.9,89.2,92.9|73.2,73.8,73.9,74,74.1,74.3,74.4,74.7,75,75.4,76,77,78.3,80.1,82.3,84.8,87.3,90.2,93.6|77.2,77.7,77.7,77.8,78,78.3,78.6,78.8,79.1,79.4,79.7,80.2,80.9,81.9,83.3,85.1,87.4,90.2,93.6|81.9,82.4,82.4,82.5,82.6,82.7,82.8,82.9,83.1,83.3,83.5,83.9,84.5,85.2,86.2,87.5,89.2,91.5,94.4&chds=65,95&chxt=x,y,x,y&chxl=1:|65|70|75|80|85|90|95|2:|Exact%20Age|3:|Life%20Expectancy&chxp=2,50|3,50&chs=600x500&chco=FF0000,00FF00,0000FF,000000,999900,FF00FF&chl=0|5|10|15|20|25|30|35|40|45|50|55|60|65|70|75|80|85|90&chg=11.1111,3.3333,1,0&chdl=Total%20Male|Total%20Female|M%C4%81ori%20Male|M%C4%81ori%20Female|Non-M%C4%81ori%20Male|Non-M%C4%81ori%20Female)
Who's a pretty graph? You are! Yes, you are!
Ahem, I made it using the Google Charts API, which was good but not simple, so I'm proud of myself.
Anyway, the point is that as you get older, the expected age you will die at, also increases. When people talk about 'Life Expectancy' in the media or wherever, they generally mean 'Life Expectancy at Birth', which, ironically, doesn't apply to any of their viewers.
You see, my life expectancy is better than a newborn because I survived all the horrible situations that could have killed me off as a baby. In other words, now that I'm 24, I can never die as a 16-year-old. Likewise, my peers can never die as 16-year-olds, so our life expectancy is higher than the newborns, some of whom will go on to die before they reach my age. A little morbid, I'll admit, but interesting.
Another point of this graph is it's yet another piece of evidence of the troubling health disparity between Māori and non-Māori.
However, I'll move on from the depressing topic of health disparities, as it's not really the topic I wanted to cover. From the graph you can see that surviving to age 5 gives you about a year extra, on average. Similarly, if I survive the dangerous period from 15 to 30, I'll also have another year tacked on there.
As a non-Māori male, the life expectancy at birth is about 77, but that doesn't mean that once I get to 77 I'm in danger of dying at any moment. If I survive to 77, I will never be one of those people who dies of cardiovascular disease in my 60s, or in a car crash in my teens, or as an infant, so my life expectancy is about 86.
Ironically, even this graph underestimates life expectancy, as it's the estimate for people who are a given age in the period 2000-2002. As medicine and general health progresses, by the time I am 60, I'll be looking at the 2043 version of this, and my life expectancy won't be the 81 years faced by 60 year olds of 2001, it'll probably be a bit higher. Medical knowledge will be better, and I will have experienced better medical treatment (and possibly nutrition) over my lifetime leading up to that point compared to the cohort of non-Māori males 40 years my senior.
So when they say in the news that you're expected to live to 76 or whatever, feel secure that you've probably got at least another year or two...
... on average. :D
I wanted to make this graph:
Who's a pretty graph? You are! Yes, you are!
Ahem, I made it using the Google Charts API, which was good but not simple, so I'm proud of myself.
Anyway, the point is that as you get older, the expected age you will die at, also increases. When people talk about 'Life Expectancy' in the media or wherever, they generally mean 'Life Expectancy at Birth', which, ironically, doesn't apply to any of their viewers.
You see, my life expectancy is better than a newborn because I survived all the horrible situations that could have killed me off as a baby. In other words, now that I'm 24, I can never die as a 16-year-old. Likewise, my peers can never die as 16-year-olds, so our life expectancy is higher than the newborns, some of whom will go on to die before they reach my age. A little morbid, I'll admit, but interesting.
Another point of this graph is it's yet another piece of evidence of the troubling health disparity between Māori and non-Māori.
However, I'll move on from the depressing topic of health disparities, as it's not really the topic I wanted to cover. From the graph you can see that surviving to age 5 gives you about a year extra, on average. Similarly, if I survive the dangerous period from 15 to 30, I'll also have another year tacked on there.
As a non-Māori male, the life expectancy at birth is about 77, but that doesn't mean that once I get to 77 I'm in danger of dying at any moment. If I survive to 77, I will never be one of those people who dies of cardiovascular disease in my 60s, or in a car crash in my teens, or as an infant, so my life expectancy is about 86.
Ironically, even this graph underestimates life expectancy, as it's the estimate for people who are a given age in the period 2000-2002. As medicine and general health progresses, by the time I am 60, I'll be looking at the 2043 version of this, and my life expectancy won't be the 81 years faced by 60 year olds of 2001, it'll probably be a bit higher. Medical knowledge will be better, and I will have experienced better medical treatment (and possibly nutrition) over my lifetime leading up to that point compared to the cohort of non-Māori males 40 years my senior.
So when they say in the news that you're expected to live to 76 or whatever, feel secure that you've probably got at least another year or two...
... on average. :D