the regional elections in eastern Germany
When a German state electorate turns out in significant numbers to elect hard-right racist nationalists, the world obviously pays attention. But I think the really worrying aspect of these local elections is elsewhere. The basic fact is that in Germany, as elsewhere, the leading parties of the supposed left have aligned themselves so far to the centre-right - and in particular to those positions that insist that workers and unemployed have to suffer the loss of entitlements and rights in order for the economy to function better - that the voters no longer see a difference. In France, the result of this is an increasingly violent tendency to electoral swings, which results in first the left, then the right, being slaughtered at the elections in turn by a discontented electorate; in Britain, by the rise of the Liberals (basically to the left of Labour, although they receive plenty of discontented Tory votes), of the nationalists of UKIP, and even of a nationalist English party, the English Democrats, whom nobody notices, but who got several tens of thousands of votes at the last European elections; in Germany and in Italy, most worryingly, with the resurrection of the Communists.
The so-called National Democrats are not worrying beyond their capacity for violence. They are a rabble phenomenon, with no tradition of governance or responsibility of any kind, and with little potential for more than aggro on the streets and irresponsible noise in the council chambers; and while the political criminality they may well instigate is not to be underrated, it is impossible to imagine that the average citizen would give them so much as a passing glance. Hitler's party became a major political force in a completely different intellectual climate; the voelkisch mental climate of the twenties and thirties is now dead and buried, and whatever temptation to extremism and unreason may be left in the German intellectual climate now turn to a different direction.
In Italy, Mr.Fini's National Alliance has deliberately and purposefully discharged all its Fascist baggage, welcoming in former Liberal and Catholic politicians, engineering a split that excluded the most folkloric blackshirts, staging a ceremonial visit to Jerusalem, declaring the twenties and thirties "an age of evil", condemning by implication Mussolini's dictatorship, and finally managing the exit of Mussolini's granddaughter Alessandra from the party. Mr.Fini, probably the most capable politician in Italy, has long intended to transform his party into a respectable, democratic conservative force; and he has, by and at large succeeded. Only ignorant foreigners now call him a Fascist. He has, mind you, had the unwitting help of his coalition allies. Mr.Bossi and his Northern League, and Mr.Berlusconi and his Come On Italy party, are so visibly horrible and incompetent as to play up Mr.Fini. He has become the most credible leader on the conservative side, to the point where the opposition often looks to him to preserve what is left of dignity, respect for law, and general decency can be rescued from the vulgarity and mendacity of his allies. Finally, the result of his policy has been not only to drive out the committed Fascists from his party, but to leave them with no clear home; as a result, they are not only isolated, but fragmented. In recent elections, no less than three separate Fascist lists have presented themselves, each gaining about one per cent of total votes.
On the other hand, both in Italy and in Germany the Communists are a serious force. In Germany, they have the memory of governmnent, recent enough to be significant, but distant enough to have allowed it to change in many minds to nostalgia: in Italy, they have the tradition of government of large and wealthy local authorities, and a certain share in recent left-wing coalitions. They cannot be dismissed, like the Fascists and the Greens, as a bunch of irresponsible outsiders with no practical effect. The Italian Communist leader Diliberto is widely respected, even among his enemies, for personal integrity and - what matters much in Italy, even after twenty years of Berlusconian assaults on culture - high learning; and while the Italian Communists are fragmented, Diliberto being far from the only one of their leaders, nevertheless they tend to move in concert. What is worse, they are universally treated as valid and legitimate members of the left-wing coalition, which leaves them with an immense power of what is essentially political blackmail. The left coalition always has to placate them; although they count for less than ten per cent of total votes, their influence is far greater.
What is really happening is widespread disgust with both the main parties; and the logical result of this can already be seen in those German states which are governed by a grosse Koalition of Christian Democrats and Social Democrats. The two main parties are being forced closer and closer together, essentially by the Socialist surrender of all properly Socialist positions, until they are hardly to be distinguished. And here is the real problem. As the National-Democrat leader in Saxony has already observed, this leaves the likes of him as the real opposition in the country; legitimates extreme parties; pushes politics in a direction that is advantageus only to extreme groups that have never become reconciled to democracy.
A second and equally disastrous result is that the rise of the extreme parties rips the heart out of the parliamentary institutions. With the exception of France, where the huge power vested in the President reduces the weight of the National Assembly, European constitutions are so designed as to absolutely require a stable parliamentary majority. (And it is probably not a coincidence that the discontent of French voters, as we have seen, takes different forms from that of their British, German and Italian counterparts.) This pushes the system towards the essentially fraudulent system of two main parties - fraudulent because the variety and difference of opinions in any responsible electorate cannot possibly be reflected in two parties, however inclusive. Successive and vigorous attempts to force this system in Italy, a highly diversified country, have utterly failed, leaving its Parliament fragmented beyond recovery; and in Germany the electorate is finally rebelling against this imposed system in numbers large enough to crack the two-party system altogether, leaving no alternative to govern many parts of the country but a Grosse Koalition - which, in turn, will do nothing but convince even more Germans on both sides of the essential vanity of the two main parties; with the result of pushing the country further towards a system of allied central parties opposed by a fragmented, extreme and often irreconcileable opposition.
My view is that it is necessary to device a form of government that does not depend on permanent and stable parliamentary majorities for its continuity and stability.
The so-called National Democrats are not worrying beyond their capacity for violence. They are a rabble phenomenon, with no tradition of governance or responsibility of any kind, and with little potential for more than aggro on the streets and irresponsible noise in the council chambers; and while the political criminality they may well instigate is not to be underrated, it is impossible to imagine that the average citizen would give them so much as a passing glance. Hitler's party became a major political force in a completely different intellectual climate; the voelkisch mental climate of the twenties and thirties is now dead and buried, and whatever temptation to extremism and unreason may be left in the German intellectual climate now turn to a different direction.
In Italy, Mr.Fini's National Alliance has deliberately and purposefully discharged all its Fascist baggage, welcoming in former Liberal and Catholic politicians, engineering a split that excluded the most folkloric blackshirts, staging a ceremonial visit to Jerusalem, declaring the twenties and thirties "an age of evil", condemning by implication Mussolini's dictatorship, and finally managing the exit of Mussolini's granddaughter Alessandra from the party. Mr.Fini, probably the most capable politician in Italy, has long intended to transform his party into a respectable, democratic conservative force; and he has, by and at large succeeded. Only ignorant foreigners now call him a Fascist. He has, mind you, had the unwitting help of his coalition allies. Mr.Bossi and his Northern League, and Mr.Berlusconi and his Come On Italy party, are so visibly horrible and incompetent as to play up Mr.Fini. He has become the most credible leader on the conservative side, to the point where the opposition often looks to him to preserve what is left of dignity, respect for law, and general decency can be rescued from the vulgarity and mendacity of his allies. Finally, the result of his policy has been not only to drive out the committed Fascists from his party, but to leave them with no clear home; as a result, they are not only isolated, but fragmented. In recent elections, no less than three separate Fascist lists have presented themselves, each gaining about one per cent of total votes.
On the other hand, both in Italy and in Germany the Communists are a serious force. In Germany, they have the memory of governmnent, recent enough to be significant, but distant enough to have allowed it to change in many minds to nostalgia: in Italy, they have the tradition of government of large and wealthy local authorities, and a certain share in recent left-wing coalitions. They cannot be dismissed, like the Fascists and the Greens, as a bunch of irresponsible outsiders with no practical effect. The Italian Communist leader Diliberto is widely respected, even among his enemies, for personal integrity and - what matters much in Italy, even after twenty years of Berlusconian assaults on culture - high learning; and while the Italian Communists are fragmented, Diliberto being far from the only one of their leaders, nevertheless they tend to move in concert. What is worse, they are universally treated as valid and legitimate members of the left-wing coalition, which leaves them with an immense power of what is essentially political blackmail. The left coalition always has to placate them; although they count for less than ten per cent of total votes, their influence is far greater.
What is really happening is widespread disgust with both the main parties; and the logical result of this can already be seen in those German states which are governed by a grosse Koalition of Christian Democrats and Social Democrats. The two main parties are being forced closer and closer together, essentially by the Socialist surrender of all properly Socialist positions, until they are hardly to be distinguished. And here is the real problem. As the National-Democrat leader in Saxony has already observed, this leaves the likes of him as the real opposition in the country; legitimates extreme parties; pushes politics in a direction that is advantageus only to extreme groups that have never become reconciled to democracy.
A second and equally disastrous result is that the rise of the extreme parties rips the heart out of the parliamentary institutions. With the exception of France, where the huge power vested in the President reduces the weight of the National Assembly, European constitutions are so designed as to absolutely require a stable parliamentary majority. (And it is probably not a coincidence that the discontent of French voters, as we have seen, takes different forms from that of their British, German and Italian counterparts.) This pushes the system towards the essentially fraudulent system of two main parties - fraudulent because the variety and difference of opinions in any responsible electorate cannot possibly be reflected in two parties, however inclusive. Successive and vigorous attempts to force this system in Italy, a highly diversified country, have utterly failed, leaving its Parliament fragmented beyond recovery; and in Germany the electorate is finally rebelling against this imposed system in numbers large enough to crack the two-party system altogether, leaving no alternative to govern many parts of the country but a Grosse Koalition - which, in turn, will do nothing but convince even more Germans on both sides of the essential vanity of the two main parties; with the result of pushing the country further towards a system of allied central parties opposed by a fragmented, extreme and often irreconcileable opposition.
My view is that it is necessary to device a form of government that does not depend on permanent and stable parliamentary majorities for its continuity and stability.