I predict the 2011 Oscar nominees WITHOUT looking at Guild Nominations
Everybody knows that the various filmmaking Guilds predict the Oscar nominations with such accuracy that they suck the fun out of make Oscar predictions. And by "everybody knows" I mean I only figured that out about a year ago.
So this year I'm doing two sets of Oscar nominee predictions: one BEFORE I look at the Guild nominations, and one AFTER I look at the Guild nominations.
None of that answers my burning question of how a movie can essentially win Best Picture before anyone's seen it, the way "Chicago" did and "The Artist" essentially has. I haven't figured out what "Oscar campaigning" looks like and how it can be so effective. Maybe I'll Google that if I have time.
Anyway, onto the nominees. I've ranked everything in order of likelihood to get the nomination. I predict "Hugo" will lead the pack with 13 nominations, followed by "The Artist" with 11 and "War Horse" with 8.
*indicates movie I've seen.
Added 1-24-2012: Nominees bolded and italicized.
PICTURE
1 - "Artist, The" *
2 - "Descendants, The" *
3 - "Hugo" *
4 - "Help, The" *
5 - "Midnight in Paris" *
6 - "Moneyball" *
7 - "War Horse"
8 - "Tree of Life, The" *
9 - "Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" *
10 - "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close"
11 - "Drive" *
12 - "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy" *
13 - "Bridesmaids" *
14 - "Harry Potter 7.2" *
DIRECTOR (4/5)
(Since 1955, the only film to win Best Picture without a nomination for Director is "Driving Miss Daisy" (1989).)
1 - "Artist, The" *
2 - "Descendants, The" *
3 - "Hugo" *
4 - "War Horse"
5 - "Midnight in Paris" *
6 - "Tree of Life, The" *
7 - "Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" *
8 - "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy" *
9 - "Drive" *
FILM EDITING (4/5)
(Since 1955, 6 films have won Best Picture without nominations for Film Editing. The last one was "Ordinary People" (1980).)
1 - "Artist, The" *
2 - "Hugo" *
3 - "War Horse"
4 - "Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" *
5 - "Moneyball" *
6 - "Descendants, The" * (these last two are close)
7 - "Drive" *
8 - "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy" *
9 - "Tree of Life, The" *
10 - "Super 8" *
(This is my favorite category. If I could pick the nominees, I'd go with "Tree of Life," "Drive," "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy," "13 Assassins," and "Hugo.")
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY (4/5)
(Since 1955, only "Titanic" (1997) and "The Sound of Music" (1965) have won Best Picture without nominations for screenwriting.)
1 - "Descendants, The" *
2 - "Moneyball" *
3 - "Hugo" *
4 - "Help, The" *
5 - "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy" *
6 - "War Horse"
7 - "Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" *
8 - "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close"
9 - "Drive" *
10 - "Ides of March, The" *
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (3/5)
(Since 1955, only "Titanic" (1997) and "The Sound of Music" (1965) have won Best Picture without nominations for screenwriting.)
1 - "Midnight in Paris" *
2 - "Artist, The" *
3 - "Bridesmaids" *
4 - "Beginners" *
5 - "Young Adult"
6 - "50/50"
7 - "Rango"
I could also see the 4th or 5th spots going to any of these movies, too: "J. Edgar," "Like Crazy," "Margin Call," "Shame," "Take Shelter," etc.
Did not predict "A Separation."
ACTOR (3/5)
(Since 1955, 5 films have won Best Picture without any nominations for acting. The most recent are "Slumdog Millionaire" (2008) and "The Return of the King" (2003).)
1 - Dujardin, "Artist, The" *
2 - Clooney, "Descendants, The" *
3 - Pitt, "Moneyball" *
4 - Assbender, "Shame"
5 - Leo, "J. Edgar"
The 5 spot is close; it could just as easily go to . . .
6 - Oldman, "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy" *
7 - Michael Shannon, "Take Shelter"
Did not predict Damian, "A Better Life."
ACTRESS (4/5)
(Since 1955, 5 films have won Best Picture without any nominations for acting. The most recent are "Slumdog Millionaire" (2008) and "The Return of the King" (2003).)
1 - Streep, "Iron Lady, The"
2 - Viola, "Help, The" *
3 - Chipmunk, "My Week with Marilyn"
4 - SWINTON, "We Need to Talk About Kevin"
5 - Rooney Mara, "Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, The" *
Spots 4 and 5 seem fragile; they could just as easily go to . . .
6 - Close, "Albert Nobbs"
7 - Charlize, "Young Adult"
8 - Olsen, "Mary Martha Marlene Marcy May Margaret etc."
9 - Wiig, "Bridesmaids" *
10 - Dunst, "Melancholia"
SUPPORTING ACTOR (2/5)
(Since 1955, 5 films have won Best Picture without any nominations for acting. The most recent are "Slumdog Millionaire" (2008) and "The Return of the King" (2003).)
1 - Baron von Trappe, "Beginners" *
2 - Albert Brooks, "Drive" *
3 - Viggo, "Dangerous Method"
4 - Gandhi, "Hugo" *
5 - Branagh, "My Week with Marilyn"
Spots 3 - 5 could just as easily go to . . .
6 - Jonah Hill, "Moneyball" *
7 - Andy Serkis, "Rise of the Planet of the Apes"
8 - Patton Oswalt, "Young Adult"
9 - Thomas Horn, "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close."
Did not predict von Sydow for "ELIC" or Nolte for "Warrior."
SUPPORTING ACTRESS (4/5)
(Since 1955, 5 films have won Best Picture without any nominations for acting. The most recent are "Slumdog Millionaire" (2008) and "The Return of the King" (2003).)
1 - Octavia, "Help, The" *
2 - Chastain, "Help, The" *
3 - Bejo, "Artist, The" *
4 - Shailene Woodley, "Descendants, The" *
5 - Melissa McCarthy, "Bridesmaids" *
6 - Mulligan, "Shame"
7 - Redgrave, "Coriolanus"
Did not predict "Albert Nobbs"
ANIMATED FEATURE (3/5)
1 - "Adventures of Tintin"
2 - "Rango" *
3 - "Arthur Christmas"
4 - "Puss in Boots"
5 - "Chico and Rita"
6 - "Cars 2"
7 - "Rio"
Did not predict "Kung Fu Panda 2" or "A Cat in Paris"
MAKEUP (1/3)
1 - "Artist, The" *
2 - "Hugo" *
3 - "Harry Potter 7.2" *
4 - "Anonymous" *
5 - "Iron Lady, The"
Did not predict "Albert Nobbs"
COSTUMES (4/5)
1 - "Artist, The" *
2 - "Hugo" *
3 - "Jane Eyre"
4 - "Anonymous" *
5 - "Harry Potter 7.2" *
6 - "Albert Nobbs"
7 - "War Horse"
8 - "W.E."
9 - "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy" *
10 - "Help, The" *
ART DIRECTION (4/5)
1 - "Artist, The" *
2 - "Hugo" *
3 - "Harry Potter 7.2" *
4 - "Anonymous" *
5 - "War Horse"
Did not predict "Midnight in Paris"
6 - "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy" *
7 - "Sherlock Holmes 2" *
8 - "Jane Eyre"
CINEMATOGRAPHY (5/5)
1 - "Tree of Life, The"
2 - "Artist, The" *
3 - "Hugo" *
4 - "Girl with the Dragon Tatoo" *
5 - "War Horse"
6 - "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy" *
7 - "Drive" *
8 - "Melancholia"
VISUAL EFFECTS (4/5)
1 - "Rise of the Planet of the Apes"
2 - "Hugo" *
3 - "Super 8" *
4 - "Harry Potter 7.2" *
5 - "Transformers 3"
6 - "Tree of Life, The" *
7 - "War Horse"
8 - "Captain America"
9 - "Real Steel"
10 - "X-Men"
SOUND EDITING and SOUND MIXING (4/6)
(Actually two different awards, but there's usually a lot of overlap, resulting in 6 to 8 nominees)
1 - "War Horse"
2 - "Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" *
3 - "Super 8" *
4 - "Transformers 3"
5 - "Rise of the Planet of the Apes" *
6 - "Harry Potter 7.2" *
7 - "Hugo" *
8 - "Adventures of Tintin
Did not predict "Moneyball" or "Drive."
9 - "X-Men"
10 - "Real Steel"
11 - "Tree of Life, The" *
12 - "Mission Impossible 4" *
MUSIC - SCORE (4/5)
1 - "Artist, The"
2 - "Hugo"
3 - "War Horse"
4 - "Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"
5 - "Adventures of Tintin"
Did not predict "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy."
6 - "Harry Potter 7.2"
7 - "Help, The"
8 - "Take Shelter"
9 - "Skin I Live In, The"
10 - "Super 8"
MUSIC - SONG (1/2)
1 - "Help, The"
2 - "W.E."
3 - "Hugo"
4 - "Muppets, The"
5 - "Gnomeo and Juliet"
Did not predict "Rio."
6 - "Albert Nobbs"
7 - "In the Land of Blood and Honey"
FOREIGN FILM (1/5)
1 - "A Separation"
2 - "Skin I Live In, The"
3 - 5: Films that haven't been advertised at all yet.