Golden Globes 2011-2012
I like the Oscars and other year-end movie award extravaganzas. They're like sports for the lazy and uncoordinated, or politics for the jaded. The Golden Globes have 10 (or sometimes 11) slots for Best Picture, and the Oscars now have 5-10 slots. This year's big players seem to be shaping up as the following 11:
1 - "The Artist"
2 - "The Descendants"
3 - "War Horse"
4 - "Hugo"
5 - "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close"
6 - "The Tree of Life"
7 - "Midnight in Paris"
8 - "The Help"
9 - "Moneyball"
10 - "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy"
11 - "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"
The 3 wildcards are "ELIC," "TTSS" and "Dragon Girl." They'll all make a splash at the Oscars, but one of them will make the biggest splash. Most likely, "ELIC" will go big or go home, knocking Cannes-winner / critical darling "The Tree of Life" out of its spot for Best Director Oscar.
But let's not get ahead of ourselves. Let's do the Golden Globes and worry about the Oscars later. I've ranked everything in order of likelihood, keeping in mind that the Globes tend to favor movies that haven't been released yet, because the Globes are essentially an advertising machine. We'll find out how right I am on Thursday.
ADDED THURSDAY 12-15: Correct predictions and additions are underlined.
SUMMARY 12-15: 42 out of 61, or 69%. Basically I overthought this whole thing. I got tired of so many years where I made what I thought to be reasonable Golden Globe predictions, only to have them blown out of the water by unreleased movies I had barely heard of. So I threw a lot of weight behind the unreleased, unreviewed, and (as I'm coming to realize) probably still unscreened "Extremely Loud + Incredibly Close," which isn't up for anything. If you replace all my "Extremely Loud" predictions with "The Ides of March" (which appeared very, very early in the Oscar season, made back its money, and disappeared), I would have 45 out of 61, or 74%.
BEST PICTURE - Drama (4/6)
"Artist, The" (unless it's counted as a Comedy)
"War Horse"
"Hugo"
"Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close"
"Help, The"
"Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy"
I DID predict "The Descendants," but as a comedy. Apparently there's somewhere you can check on that. Who knew.
DID NOT predict "The Ides of March." A pleasant surprise. I thought it had dropped off the map amidst all the other bigger hits.
"Moneyball"
"Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, The"
"Tree of Life, The"
BEST PICTURE - Comedy or Musical (3/5)
"Artist, The" (unless it's counted as a Drama)
"Descendants, The" (ended up in Drama, but I'm counting it as right!)
"Midnight in Paris"
"Young Adult"
"Bridesmaids"
"Beginners"
"50/50"
"Win Win" (added later)
"We Bought a Zoo"
"My Week with Marilyn"
"Muppets, The"
"Rango"
BEST DIRECTOR (4/5)
Havacious (spelling?), "Artist, The"
Payne (the "Sideways" guy), "Descendants, The"
Spielberg, "War Horse"
Scorsese, "Hugo"
Daldry, "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close"
Malick, "Tree of Life, The"
Fincher, "Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"
Woody, "Midnight in Paris"
Alfredson ("Let the Right One In"), "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy"
Polanski, "Carnage"
BEST SCREENPLAY (4/5)
"Artist, The"
"Descendants, The"
"Midnight in Paris"
"Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close"
"Moneyball"
DID NOT predict "The Ides of March."
"War Horse"
"Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy"
"Hugo"
"Bridesmaids"
"Young Adult"
"Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"
"Margin Call"
"Help, The"
BEST ACTOR - Drama (4/5)
Jean Something, "Artist, The" (unless it's counted as a Comedy)
Assbender, "Shame"
Pitt, "Moneyball"
Gary Oldman, "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy"
Leo, "J. Edgar"
Hanks, "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close"
I predicted Clooney "Descendants" for Comedy. I'm counting that as right.
But I did NOT predict Baby Goose for "Ides of March."
Michael Shannon, "Take Shelter"
Woody Harrelson, "Rampart"
Assbender, "Dangerous Method, A"
Fiennes, "Coriolanus"
BEST ACTOR - Comedy (3/5)
Jean Something, "Artist, The" (unless it's counted as a Drama)
Clooney, "Descendants, The" (actually Drama, but I'm counting it as right!)
Owen Wilson, "Midnight in Paris"
JGL, "50/50"
Paul Giamatti, "Win Win" (added later)
Matt Damon, "We Bought a Zoo"
DID NOT predict Brendan Gleeson for "The Guard" (sweet!) because I thought, "nah, that wasn't big in the States."
DID NOT predict Baby Goose for "Crazy Stupid Love."
Ewan McGregor, "Beginners"
Depp, "Rum Diary, The"
Bateman, "Horrible Bosses"
Jason Segel, "Muppets, The"
BEST ACTRESS - Drama (4/5)
Streep, "Iron Lady, The"
Viola Davis, "Help, The"
Michelle Williams, "My Week with Marilyn" (unless it's a Comedy)
Close, "Albert Nobbs"
SWINTON, "We Need to Talk About Kevin"
Olsen sister, "Martha Marcy Marlene May whatever"
Rooney Mara, "Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, The"
Keira Knightley, "Dangerous Method, A"
Dunst, "Melancholia"
BEST ACTRESS - Comedy (3/5)
Theron, "Young Adult"
Wiig, "Bridesmaids"
Michelle Williams, "My Week with Marilyn" (unless it's a Drama)
Cameron Diaz, "Bad Teacher"
Amy Adams, "Muppets, The"
Kunis, "Friends with Benefits" (I'm stretching here, I know)
Did not predict Jodie Foster + Kate Winslet in "Carnage" because I couldn't imagine a Polanski movie called "Carnage" being a comedy.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR (3/5)
Plummer, "Beginners" (biggest lock so far)
Albert Brooks, "Drive"
Gandhi, "Hugo"
Branagh, "My Week with Marilyn"
Max von Sydow, "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close"
DID NOT predict Viggo for "A Dangerous Method" because it seems to be sliding off the radar.
DID NOT predict Jonah Hill (sweet!) for "Moneyball" because he's Jonah Hill.
Patton Oswalt, "Young Adult"
Serkis, "Rise of the Planet of the Apes"
Reilly or Waltz, "Carnage"
Spacey, "Margin Call"
Someone, "War Horse"
Hawkes, "Martha Mary etc."
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS (4/5)
Octavia Spencer and / or Jessica Chastain, "Help, The"
Redgrave, "Coriolanus"
Something-or-other Bejo, "Artist, The"
Shelley or something, "Descendants, The"
Bullock, "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close"
DID NOT predict Janet McTeer for "Albert Nobbs" because its critical opinion is getting lower and lower.
Carey Mulligan, "Shame"
Keira, "Dangerous Method, A"
Somebody, "Take Shelter"
ScarJo, "We Bought a Zoo"
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE (3/5)
"Rango"
"Tin-tin Unicorn Thing"
"Arthur Christmas"
DID NOT predict "Puss in Boots" because for some reason I thought this category only had 3 noms.
"Cars 2"
"Winnie the Pooh"
BEST SCORE (3/5)
"War Horse"
"Hugo"
"Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"
"Harry Potter 7.5"
"Take Shelter"
DID NOT predict Madonna's "W.E."
"Artist, The"
"Tin-tin"
BEST SONG
Uh . . . "The Muppets" and "Footloose?" Wasn't the song at the end of "Hugo" original?
Whatever. Who cares.
OVERALL LEADERS
"The Artist" - 5
Drama/Comedy, Director, Screenplay, Actor (Drama/Comedy), Supporting Actress
"Descendants, The" - 5
Comedy, Director, Screenplay, Actor (Comedy), Supporting Actress
"Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close" - 5
Drama, Director, Screenplay, Actor (Drama), Supporting Actress
"Hugo" - 4
Drama, Director, Supporting Actor, Score
"Help, The" - 3 or 4
Drama, Actress (Drama), Supporting Actress
"Midnight in Paris" - 3
Comedy, Script, Actor (Comedy)
"War Horse" - 3
Drama, Director, Score
1 - "The Artist"
2 - "The Descendants"
3 - "War Horse"
4 - "Hugo"
5 - "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close"
6 - "The Tree of Life"
7 - "Midnight in Paris"
8 - "The Help"
9 - "Moneyball"
10 - "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy"
11 - "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"
The 3 wildcards are "ELIC," "TTSS" and "Dragon Girl." They'll all make a splash at the Oscars, but one of them will make the biggest splash. Most likely, "ELIC" will go big or go home, knocking Cannes-winner / critical darling "The Tree of Life" out of its spot for Best Director Oscar.
But let's not get ahead of ourselves. Let's do the Golden Globes and worry about the Oscars later. I've ranked everything in order of likelihood, keeping in mind that the Globes tend to favor movies that haven't been released yet, because the Globes are essentially an advertising machine. We'll find out how right I am on Thursday.
ADDED THURSDAY 12-15: Correct predictions and additions are underlined.
SUMMARY 12-15: 42 out of 61, or 69%. Basically I overthought this whole thing. I got tired of so many years where I made what I thought to be reasonable Golden Globe predictions, only to have them blown out of the water by unreleased movies I had barely heard of. So I threw a lot of weight behind the unreleased, unreviewed, and (as I'm coming to realize) probably still unscreened "Extremely Loud + Incredibly Close," which isn't up for anything. If you replace all my "Extremely Loud" predictions with "The Ides of March" (which appeared very, very early in the Oscar season, made back its money, and disappeared), I would have 45 out of 61, or 74%.
BEST PICTURE - Drama (4/6)
"Artist, The" (unless it's counted as a Comedy)
"War Horse"
"Hugo"
"Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close"
"Help, The"
"Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy"
I DID predict "The Descendants," but as a comedy. Apparently there's somewhere you can check on that. Who knew.
DID NOT predict "The Ides of March." A pleasant surprise. I thought it had dropped off the map amidst all the other bigger hits.
"Moneyball"
"Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, The"
"Tree of Life, The"
BEST PICTURE - Comedy or Musical (3/5)
"Artist, The" (unless it's counted as a Drama)
"Descendants, The" (ended up in Drama, but I'm counting it as right!)
"Midnight in Paris"
"Young Adult"
"Bridesmaids"
"Beginners"
"50/50"
"Win Win" (added later)
"We Bought a Zoo"
"My Week with Marilyn"
"Muppets, The"
"Rango"
BEST DIRECTOR (4/5)
Havacious (spelling?), "Artist, The"
Payne (the "Sideways" guy), "Descendants, The"
Spielberg, "War Horse"
Scorsese, "Hugo"
Daldry, "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close"
Malick, "Tree of Life, The"
Fincher, "Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"
Woody, "Midnight in Paris"
Alfredson ("Let the Right One In"), "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy"
Polanski, "Carnage"
BEST SCREENPLAY (4/5)
"Artist, The"
"Descendants, The"
"Midnight in Paris"
"Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close"
"Moneyball"
DID NOT predict "The Ides of March."
"War Horse"
"Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy"
"Hugo"
"Bridesmaids"
"Young Adult"
"Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"
"Margin Call"
"Help, The"
BEST ACTOR - Drama (4/5)
Jean Something, "Artist, The" (unless it's counted as a Comedy)
Assbender, "Shame"
Pitt, "Moneyball"
Gary Oldman, "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy"
Leo, "J. Edgar"
Hanks, "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close"
I predicted Clooney "Descendants" for Comedy. I'm counting that as right.
But I did NOT predict Baby Goose for "Ides of March."
Michael Shannon, "Take Shelter"
Woody Harrelson, "Rampart"
Assbender, "Dangerous Method, A"
Fiennes, "Coriolanus"
BEST ACTOR - Comedy (3/5)
Jean Something, "Artist, The" (unless it's counted as a Drama)
Clooney, "Descendants, The" (actually Drama, but I'm counting it as right!)
Owen Wilson, "Midnight in Paris"
JGL, "50/50"
Paul Giamatti, "Win Win" (added later)
Matt Damon, "We Bought a Zoo"
DID NOT predict Brendan Gleeson for "The Guard" (sweet!) because I thought, "nah, that wasn't big in the States."
DID NOT predict Baby Goose for "Crazy Stupid Love."
Ewan McGregor, "Beginners"
Depp, "Rum Diary, The"
Bateman, "Horrible Bosses"
Jason Segel, "Muppets, The"
BEST ACTRESS - Drama (4/5)
Streep, "Iron Lady, The"
Viola Davis, "Help, The"
Michelle Williams, "My Week with Marilyn" (unless it's a Comedy)
Close, "Albert Nobbs"
SWINTON, "We Need to Talk About Kevin"
Olsen sister, "Martha Marcy Marlene May whatever"
Rooney Mara, "Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, The"
Keira Knightley, "Dangerous Method, A"
Dunst, "Melancholia"
BEST ACTRESS - Comedy (3/5)
Theron, "Young Adult"
Wiig, "Bridesmaids"
Michelle Williams, "My Week with Marilyn" (unless it's a Drama)
Cameron Diaz, "Bad Teacher"
Amy Adams, "Muppets, The"
Kunis, "Friends with Benefits" (I'm stretching here, I know)
Did not predict Jodie Foster + Kate Winslet in "Carnage" because I couldn't imagine a Polanski movie called "Carnage" being a comedy.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR (3/5)
Plummer, "Beginners" (biggest lock so far)
Albert Brooks, "Drive"
Gandhi, "Hugo"
Branagh, "My Week with Marilyn"
Max von Sydow, "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close"
DID NOT predict Viggo for "A Dangerous Method" because it seems to be sliding off the radar.
DID NOT predict Jonah Hill (sweet!) for "Moneyball" because he's Jonah Hill.
Patton Oswalt, "Young Adult"
Serkis, "Rise of the Planet of the Apes"
Reilly or Waltz, "Carnage"
Spacey, "Margin Call"
Someone, "War Horse"
Hawkes, "Martha Mary etc."
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS (4/5)
Octavia Spencer and / or Jessica Chastain, "Help, The"
Redgrave, "Coriolanus"
Something-or-other Bejo, "Artist, The"
Shelley or something, "Descendants, The"
Bullock, "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close"
DID NOT predict Janet McTeer for "Albert Nobbs" because its critical opinion is getting lower and lower.
Carey Mulligan, "Shame"
Keira, "Dangerous Method, A"
Somebody, "Take Shelter"
ScarJo, "We Bought a Zoo"
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE (3/5)
"Rango"
"Tin-tin Unicorn Thing"
"Arthur Christmas"
DID NOT predict "Puss in Boots" because for some reason I thought this category only had 3 noms.
"Cars 2"
"Winnie the Pooh"
BEST SCORE (3/5)
"War Horse"
"Hugo"
"Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"
"Harry Potter 7.5"
"Take Shelter"
DID NOT predict Madonna's "W.E."
"Artist, The"
"Tin-tin"
BEST SONG
Uh . . . "The Muppets" and "Footloose?" Wasn't the song at the end of "Hugo" original?
Whatever. Who cares.
OVERALL LEADERS
"The Artist" - 5
Drama/Comedy, Director, Screenplay, Actor (Drama/Comedy), Supporting Actress
"Descendants, The" - 5
Comedy, Director, Screenplay, Actor (Comedy), Supporting Actress
"Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close" - 5
Drama, Director, Screenplay, Actor (Drama), Supporting Actress
"Hugo" - 4
Drama, Director, Supporting Actor, Score
"Help, The" - 3 or 4
Drama, Actress (Drama), Supporting Actress
"Midnight in Paris" - 3
Comedy, Script, Actor (Comedy)
"War Horse" - 3
Drama, Director, Score