I predict the Oscar nominees and I will not be wrong
Correct predictions underlined 1-23-07. Nominated movies that my wife and I have seen are italicized and include my short opinions.
PICTURE
Babel (great technique in service of pretentious twaddle - **)
The Departed (sweet, sweet action, my favorite nominated film so far - ***1/2)
Dreamgirls (it feels so good to have been wrong about this one -- Dreamgirls SUCKS - *1/2).
Letters from Iwo Jima (I’m the least certain about this one) (better than "Flags of Our Fathers," but still drags and beats you about the head and shoulders with the Poignant Stick - **1/2)
The Queen (fine, overrated episode of Masterpiece Theatre - ***)
Outside
Little Miss Sunshine (most likely to take Iwo Jima’s place) (glorified sitcom - **)
United 93
Way Outside
Bobby
Little Children
A Prairie Home Companion
DIRECTOR
Babel - Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu
The Departed - Martin Scorsese
Dreamgirls - Bill Condon (glad to be wrong)
Letters from Iwo Jima - Clint Eastwood
The Queen - Stephen Frears (I’m the least certain about this one)
Outside
United 93 - Paul Greengrass (most likely to take The Queen’s place) (visceral cutting, hand-held camera, and low-key acting - ***1/2)
Children of Men - Alfonso Cuaron
Little Miss Sunshine - Whozits and Whatzits
Way Outside
Clint Eastwood twice
A Prairie Home Companion - Robert Altman
Way, Way Outside
Bobby - Emilio Estevez
Marie Antoinette - Sofia Coppola
INLAND EMPIRE - David Lynch
Blood Diamond - Edward Zwick
Volver - Pedro Almodovar
ACTOR
The Departed - Leonardo DiCaprio
Half Nelson - Ryan Gosling
The Last King of Scotland - Forest Whitaker (best you could hope for with outsider's POV - ***)
The Pursuit of Happyness - Will Smith (mawkish take on the American dream that either refreshingly or chillingly takes it at completely face value; Smith is as likeable and natural as ever and so is his real-life son - **1/2)
Venus - Peter O’Toole
Outside
Borat - Sacha Baron Cohen
Thank You For Smoking - Aaron Eckhart
Way Outside
Blood Diamond - Leonardo DiCaprio (100-minute B movie of chases, shoot-outs, black-white buddies who at first don't get along, and tacked-on love story stretched out to A movie length with everything having to be explained in dialogue - **1/2)
Ken Watanabe - Letters from Iwo Jima
ACTRESS
The Devil Wears Prada - Meryl Streep (my wife says "predictable drivel" - **)
Little Children - Kate Winslet (too obvious to be really good but well-made and compulsively watchable **1/2)
Notes on a Scandal - Judi Dench - (Eyre's direction could stand to be less tasteful and even more trashy, but it's still a deliciously cynical and mean-spirited melodrama, with rich, unsentimental characterizations of its two leads - ***)
The Queen - Helen Mirren
Volver - Penelope Cruz (didn't quite get it, but great cleavage **1/2)
Outside
Marie Antoinette - Kirsten Dunst
Painted Veil - Naomi Watts
Way Outside
Miss Potter - Renee Zellweger
Dreamgirls - Beyonce Knowles
INLAND EMPIRE - Laura Dern
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Babel - Brad Pitt
The Departed - Jack Nicholson
Dreamgirls - Eddie Murphy
Little Miss Sunshine - Alan Arkin
The Queen - Michael Sheen
alas, I couldn't predict Jackie Earle Haley for Little Children.
Outside
The Departed - Marky Mark Wahlberg (possibly my favorite character all year)
Hollywoodland - Ben Affleck
Little Miss Sunshine - Steve Carrell
Way Outside
Babel - Gael Garcia Bernal
Blood Diamond - Djimon Honsou
Catch a Fire - Tim Robbins
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Babel - Adriana Barraza
Babel - Rinko Kikuchi
Dreamgirls - Jennifer Hudson
Little Miss Sunshine - Abigail Breslin
Notes on a Scandal - Cate Blanchett
Outside
The Devil Wears Prada - Emily Blunt
For Your Consideration - Catherine O’Hara
Little Children - Jennifer Connelly
World Trade Center / Stranger Than Fiction - Maggie Gyllenhaal
SCREENPLAY - ORIGINAL
Babel
Bobby
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen
United 93
Outside
Pan's Labyrinth (Narnia with bugs, gore, and a terrible villain, half-redeemed by visual flair - **1/2)
Half Nelson
A Prairie Home Companion
Way Outside
Borat (WRONG CATEGORY - ADAPTED (THAT WAS A STUPID OVERSIGHT ON MY PART!)) (amusing but smug **1/2)
Brick
The Good Shepherd
INLAND EMPIRE
The Prestige
Volver
SCREENPLAY - ADAPTED
Children of Men (great technique, but I felt this whole movie was in "quotation marks" - **1/2)
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Letters from Iwo Jima (WRONG CATEGORY - ORIGINAL) / Flags of Our Fathers
Notes on a Scandal
Outside
Little Children
Thank You for Smoking
Eastwood twice
Way Outside
Perfume: The Story of a Murderer
The History Boys
Painted Veil
FILM EDITING
Babel
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Letters from Iwo Jima / Flags of Our Fathers
United 93
Outside
Children of Men
Way Outside
Eastwood twice
Blood Diamond
Bobby
Miami Vice
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Babel
Children of Men
Curse of the Golden Flower
The Illusionist (fine, old-fashioned romance, quiet and low-key - ***)
Marie Antoinette
Outside
The Good German
Letters from Iwo Jima / Flags of Our Fathers
The Painted Veil
Way Outside
Eastwood twice
Apocalypto
Blood Diamond
Dreamgirls
Last King of Scotland
Miami Vice
The Prestige (loud and cold, but nevertheless entertaining - ***)
ALAS, did not predict PAN'S LABYRINTH or THE BLACK DAHLIA (sweeeeet!!! - ***1/2)
ART DIRECTION
Letters from Iwo Jima / Flags of Our Fathers
Curse of the Golden Flower
Marie Antoinette
Pan’s Labyrinth
The Painted Veil
ALAS, I DIDN'T PREDICT THE GOOD SHEPHERD (engrossing, myopic character study - ***)
Outside
Eastwood twice
Children of Men
Pirates of the Caribbean (good intentions reduced to screaming, violence, and noise - **)
Painted Veil
Way Outside
Apocalypto
Babel
Bobby
Dreamgirls
The Good German
The Illusionist
Perfume: The Story of a Murderer
The Prestige
MAKEUP
Apocalypto (Gibson knows how to cut a bitch ***)
Marie Antoinette
Pan’s Labyrinth
Perfume: The Story of a Murderer
Pirates of the Caribbean
ALAS, I didn't predict CLICK. (pop variation on themes of "It's a Wonderful Life" and "A Christmas Carol;" to my immense surprise it's a solid, if shallow, mainstream entertainment ***)
COSTUMES
Curse of the Golden Flower (did you SEE her cleavage?!? ***)
Dreamgirls
Marie Antoinette (beautiful & ethereal; I smiled from beginning to end - ***1/2)
Pan’s Labyrinth
Pirates of the Caribbean
ALAS, I didn't predict DEVIL WEARS PRADA or THE QUEEN.
Outside
Apocalypto
Bobby
The Good German
Letters from Iwo Jima / Flags of Our Fathers
Perfume: The Story of a Murderer
VISUAL EFFECTS
The Fountain
Pan’s Labyrinth
Pirates of the Caribbean
ALAS, I couldn't predict POSEIDON (uninspired destruction-porn remake of unnecessary original with a few good claustrophobia drowning bits - *1/2)
Outside
Children of Men
Superman Returns (145 minutes is wrong; airbrushed, inhuman characters like Superman and Lois Lane should be in an equally airbrushed and mechanically-perfect 95-minute wind-up toy; Spacey is fun though and visuals are good - **)
V for Vendetta
SOUND EDITING & SOUND MIXING
Children of Men
Dreamgirls (mixing)
Letters from Iwo Jima (editing) / Flags of Our Fathers (mixing & editing) (maudlin, preachy junk interspersed with good combat scenes **)
Pirates of the Caribbean (mixing & editing)
Superman
ALAS (I barely put thought into these categories) I couldn't predict APOCALYPTO (mixing & editing), BLOOD DIAMOND (mixing & editing)
Outside
Babel
Cars
The Prestige
V for Vendetta
ANIMATED FEATURE
Cars (more insincere, soulless Pixar stuff that looks like a good video game **)
Happy Feet
Monster House (cute trifle with moments hearkening back to "The Goonies" - ***)
Outside
A Scanner Darkly
SCORE, SONG, FOREIGN FILM (I’m never good at these)
SCORE (a tough one…)
Babel
Letters from Iwo Jima / Flags of Our Fathers
The Painted Veil
ALAS, I didn't predict THE GOOD GERMAN (strong performances from Clooney, Maguire, and Blanchett, a quick pace, and rich black-and-white photography make this an engaging exercise in cinematic revival - ***),
PAN'S, QUEEN, or NOTES
SONG - ???
Uh, no. Cars, Inconvenient Truth, (Al Gore's easy speaking style and visual aids make what could be a dry and depressing film engaging and, surprisingly, with a hopeful ending - ***)
3 for Dreamgirls (for once I may actually see all the nominees in this category)
FOREIGN FILM (really tough one)
Pan’s Labyrinth
Volver
ALAS, couldn't predict THE LIVES OF OTHERS and DAYS OF GLORY (although I should have) or WATER and something Danish.
Outside
Curse of the Golden Flower
PICTURE
Babel (great technique in service of pretentious twaddle - **)
The Departed (sweet, sweet action, my favorite nominated film so far - ***1/2)
Dreamgirls (it feels so good to have been wrong about this one -- Dreamgirls SUCKS - *1/2).
Letters from Iwo Jima (I’m the least certain about this one) (better than "Flags of Our Fathers," but still drags and beats you about the head and shoulders with the Poignant Stick - **1/2)
The Queen (fine, overrated episode of Masterpiece Theatre - ***)
Outside
Little Miss Sunshine (most likely to take Iwo Jima’s place) (glorified sitcom - **)
United 93
Way Outside
Bobby
Little Children
A Prairie Home Companion
DIRECTOR
Babel - Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu
The Departed - Martin Scorsese
Dreamgirls - Bill Condon (glad to be wrong)
Letters from Iwo Jima - Clint Eastwood
The Queen - Stephen Frears (I’m the least certain about this one)
Outside
United 93 - Paul Greengrass (most likely to take The Queen’s place) (visceral cutting, hand-held camera, and low-key acting - ***1/2)
Children of Men - Alfonso Cuaron
Little Miss Sunshine - Whozits and Whatzits
Way Outside
Clint Eastwood twice
A Prairie Home Companion - Robert Altman
Way, Way Outside
Bobby - Emilio Estevez
Marie Antoinette - Sofia Coppola
INLAND EMPIRE - David Lynch
Blood Diamond - Edward Zwick
Volver - Pedro Almodovar
ACTOR
The Departed - Leonardo DiCaprio
Half Nelson - Ryan Gosling
The Last King of Scotland - Forest Whitaker (best you could hope for with outsider's POV - ***)
The Pursuit of Happyness - Will Smith (mawkish take on the American dream that either refreshingly or chillingly takes it at completely face value; Smith is as likeable and natural as ever and so is his real-life son - **1/2)
Venus - Peter O’Toole
Outside
Borat - Sacha Baron Cohen
Thank You For Smoking - Aaron Eckhart
Way Outside
Blood Diamond - Leonardo DiCaprio (100-minute B movie of chases, shoot-outs, black-white buddies who at first don't get along, and tacked-on love story stretched out to A movie length with everything having to be explained in dialogue - **1/2)
Ken Watanabe - Letters from Iwo Jima
ACTRESS
The Devil Wears Prada - Meryl Streep (my wife says "predictable drivel" - **)
Little Children - Kate Winslet (too obvious to be really good but well-made and compulsively watchable **1/2)
Notes on a Scandal - Judi Dench - (Eyre's direction could stand to be less tasteful and even more trashy, but it's still a deliciously cynical and mean-spirited melodrama, with rich, unsentimental characterizations of its two leads - ***)
The Queen - Helen Mirren
Volver - Penelope Cruz (didn't quite get it, but great cleavage **1/2)
Outside
Marie Antoinette - Kirsten Dunst
Painted Veil - Naomi Watts
Way Outside
Miss Potter - Renee Zellweger
Dreamgirls - Beyonce Knowles
INLAND EMPIRE - Laura Dern
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Babel - Brad Pitt
The Departed - Jack Nicholson
Dreamgirls - Eddie Murphy
Little Miss Sunshine - Alan Arkin
The Queen - Michael Sheen
alas, I couldn't predict Jackie Earle Haley for Little Children.
Outside
The Departed - Marky Mark Wahlberg (possibly my favorite character all year)
Hollywoodland - Ben Affleck
Little Miss Sunshine - Steve Carrell
Way Outside
Babel - Gael Garcia Bernal
Blood Diamond - Djimon Honsou
Catch a Fire - Tim Robbins
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Babel - Adriana Barraza
Babel - Rinko Kikuchi
Dreamgirls - Jennifer Hudson
Little Miss Sunshine - Abigail Breslin
Notes on a Scandal - Cate Blanchett
Outside
The Devil Wears Prada - Emily Blunt
For Your Consideration - Catherine O’Hara
Little Children - Jennifer Connelly
World Trade Center / Stranger Than Fiction - Maggie Gyllenhaal
SCREENPLAY - ORIGINAL
Babel
Bobby
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen
United 93
Outside
Pan's Labyrinth (Narnia with bugs, gore, and a terrible villain, half-redeemed by visual flair - **1/2)
Half Nelson
A Prairie Home Companion
Way Outside
Borat (WRONG CATEGORY - ADAPTED (THAT WAS A STUPID OVERSIGHT ON MY PART!)) (amusing but smug **1/2)
Brick
The Good Shepherd
INLAND EMPIRE
The Prestige
Volver
SCREENPLAY - ADAPTED
Children of Men (great technique, but I felt this whole movie was in "quotation marks" - **1/2)
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Letters from Iwo Jima (WRONG CATEGORY - ORIGINAL) / Flags of Our Fathers
Notes on a Scandal
Outside
Little Children
Thank You for Smoking
Eastwood twice
Way Outside
Perfume: The Story of a Murderer
The History Boys
Painted Veil
FILM EDITING
Babel
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Letters from Iwo Jima / Flags of Our Fathers
United 93
Outside
Children of Men
Way Outside
Eastwood twice
Blood Diamond
Bobby
Miami Vice
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Babel
Children of Men
Curse of the Golden Flower
The Illusionist (fine, old-fashioned romance, quiet and low-key - ***)
Marie Antoinette
Outside
The Good German
Letters from Iwo Jima / Flags of Our Fathers
The Painted Veil
Way Outside
Eastwood twice
Apocalypto
Blood Diamond
Dreamgirls
Last King of Scotland
Miami Vice
The Prestige (loud and cold, but nevertheless entertaining - ***)
ALAS, did not predict PAN'S LABYRINTH or THE BLACK DAHLIA (sweeeeet!!! - ***1/2)
ART DIRECTION
Letters from Iwo Jima / Flags of Our Fathers
Curse of the Golden Flower
Marie Antoinette
Pan’s Labyrinth
The Painted Veil
ALAS, I DIDN'T PREDICT THE GOOD SHEPHERD (engrossing, myopic character study - ***)
Outside
Eastwood twice
Children of Men
Pirates of the Caribbean (good intentions reduced to screaming, violence, and noise - **)
Painted Veil
Way Outside
Apocalypto
Babel
Bobby
Dreamgirls
The Good German
The Illusionist
Perfume: The Story of a Murderer
The Prestige
MAKEUP
Apocalypto (Gibson knows how to cut a bitch ***)
Marie Antoinette
Pan’s Labyrinth
Perfume: The Story of a Murderer
Pirates of the Caribbean
ALAS, I didn't predict CLICK. (pop variation on themes of "It's a Wonderful Life" and "A Christmas Carol;" to my immense surprise it's a solid, if shallow, mainstream entertainment ***)
COSTUMES
Curse of the Golden Flower (did you SEE her cleavage?!? ***)
Dreamgirls
Marie Antoinette (beautiful & ethereal; I smiled from beginning to end - ***1/2)
Pan’s Labyrinth
Pirates of the Caribbean
ALAS, I didn't predict DEVIL WEARS PRADA or THE QUEEN.
Outside
Apocalypto
Bobby
The Good German
Letters from Iwo Jima / Flags of Our Fathers
Perfume: The Story of a Murderer
VISUAL EFFECTS
The Fountain
Pan’s Labyrinth
Pirates of the Caribbean
ALAS, I couldn't predict POSEIDON (uninspired destruction-porn remake of unnecessary original with a few good claustrophobia drowning bits - *1/2)
Outside
Children of Men
Superman Returns (145 minutes is wrong; airbrushed, inhuman characters like Superman and Lois Lane should be in an equally airbrushed and mechanically-perfect 95-minute wind-up toy; Spacey is fun though and visuals are good - **)
V for Vendetta
SOUND EDITING & SOUND MIXING
Children of Men
Dreamgirls (mixing)
Letters from Iwo Jima (editing) / Flags of Our Fathers (mixing & editing) (maudlin, preachy junk interspersed with good combat scenes **)
Pirates of the Caribbean (mixing & editing)
Superman
ALAS (I barely put thought into these categories) I couldn't predict APOCALYPTO (mixing & editing), BLOOD DIAMOND (mixing & editing)
Outside
Babel
Cars
The Prestige
V for Vendetta
ANIMATED FEATURE
Cars (more insincere, soulless Pixar stuff that looks like a good video game **)
Happy Feet
Monster House (cute trifle with moments hearkening back to "The Goonies" - ***)
Outside
A Scanner Darkly
SCORE, SONG, FOREIGN FILM (I’m never good at these)
SCORE (a tough one…)
Babel
Letters from Iwo Jima / Flags of Our Fathers
The Painted Veil
ALAS, I didn't predict THE GOOD GERMAN (strong performances from Clooney, Maguire, and Blanchett, a quick pace, and rich black-and-white photography make this an engaging exercise in cinematic revival - ***),
PAN'S, QUEEN, or NOTES
SONG - ???
Uh, no. Cars, Inconvenient Truth, (Al Gore's easy speaking style and visual aids make what could be a dry and depressing film engaging and, surprisingly, with a hopeful ending - ***)
3 for Dreamgirls (for once I may actually see all the nominees in this category)
FOREIGN FILM (really tough one)
Pan’s Labyrinth
Volver
ALAS, couldn't predict THE LIVES OF OTHERS and DAYS OF GLORY (although I should have) or WATER and something Danish.
Outside
Curse of the Golden Flower