CFUW Game 10 goes here

Feb 26, 2006 17:59

I'm feeling a bit reckless, Near. Want to work together, or at least pretend to until one or both of us is suspected of being a wolf?

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_diesmiling_ March 1 2006, 03:47:13 UTC
Ah, by the way, you two... I'm thinking I should change my vote from Sano-san to Ash-san. Because, you see, having put in my bet that Huang-san is a sheep, it is better that she be able to vote than Ash-san, who is as yet unconfirmed, and to do so will reduce the possibilities of her being chosen randomly to go up to vote. Is this acceptable?

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for_the_han March 1 2006, 03:48:17 UTC
It sounds like a plan to me.

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_diesmiling_ March 1 2006, 03:50:50 UTC
There, it's done!

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n_is_for March 1 2006, 08:14:09 UTC
...well. That's inconvenient.

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_diesmiling_ March 1 2006, 08:17:03 UTC
...Mmm. Well, at least it confirms us correct.

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n_is_for March 1 2006, 08:20:38 UTC
Quite so.

...mm. Very odd - Mustang and Mr. Kenobi both failed to vote again.

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_diesmiling_ March 1 2006, 08:31:23 UTC
Ah, yes. I'd noticed that as well... I suppose they could be busy, but two nights in a row is a surprise.

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_diesmiling_ March 1 2006, 08:23:57 UTC
All right, as a quick guess, and removing us both from the list -- admittedly not necessarily the wisest move, but we can do a full list some other time, and we've put a stake on the line as is -- and removing Ash-san as well, given that in the interpretations of the clues, only one of the three was a wolf, and it seems most likely that the Ash-san, Sano-san, and Huang-san clue may have been correct (as it offered up three answers rather than four and so on), and also removing Gojyo as a confirmed sheep, I believe at a quick look over, the following pairs are left:

Roy/Lady
Roy/Obi-Wan
Roy/Tobias
Lady/Obi-wan
Lady/Tobias
Obi-Wan/Tobias

Which is not terribly helpful, admittedly, given the equal likelihood for each, but it will provide something to look for when observing the others and waiting for clues and so on.

(If my quick list is incorrect, do tell me; I drew it together on the spot.)

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n_is_for March 1 2006, 08:37:15 UTC
Agreed on those removals. There will be time later to make full calculations if it becomes necessary ( ... )

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_diesmiling_ March 1 2006, 08:57:01 UTC
True... Moreover, Kenobi-san was the first person to draw attention to Mustang-san's suspicious comments. Now, I'm sure it is not uncommon to pretend to not get along in order to make sure at least one wolf gets away, but it happened very early in the game. I don't believe both Kenobi-san and Mustang-san are likely to be wolves together.

(Which leaves:

Roy/Lady
Roy/Tobias
Lady/Obi-wan
Lady/Tobias
Obi-Wan/Tobias )

On a voting session note:
On the first suspicion vote, 11 suspicions were placed. That means one person did not place one.
On the second suspicion vote, 6 suspicions were placed. Which means four people did not place one.

My instinct is that Kenobi-san was most not voting on suspicion polls either. If that is the case ...perhaps it's a Jedi-code thing? Not voting until he is certain of things? It might be worth trying to find out.

[pours self a beer]

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n_is_for March 1 2006, 09:09:08 UTC
That could be; it is definitely worth asking him about.

My vote was on Sano-san, as was Ying's - that least one vote on Sano unaccounted for. One vote was on Ying, which I believe was Sano-san's - he stated that he would suspect Ying over Ash, and then Ying gained a suspicion, which fits. You had a vote on Ash, which leaves one vote on Ash unaccounted for.

My theory is that Ash, Sha-san, or Tobias had the vote on Sano-san, Lady had the vote on Ash, and Mustang and Kenobi did not vote, while two out of Ash, Sha-san, and Tobias did not vote.

Ah, please do not be offended, Cho-san, but will that impair your judgement?

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_diesmiling_ March 1 2006, 09:13:24 UTC
Yes. Hmm.

I am almost entirely certain Gojyo voted on Sano-san. In fact, I'd say we could write that one off. Which would mean that Roy-san, Kenobi-san, Ash-san, and Tobias-san did not vote.

Ah, no offense taken. It will not impair my judgement at all, however -- it's a talent, perhaps.

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n_is_for March 1 2006, 09:24:27 UTC
One of the things he didn't mind telling a suspected wolf then, hm? Ah, also, would you prefer to ask Kenobi, or shall I? Both of us asking might be overkill.

Mm. It must be a useful talent. Do you have a similar immunity to the effects of any other drugs besides alcohol?

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_diesmiling_ March 1 2006, 09:33:42 UTC
Yes, that's the case. I'm not sure how far I can trust the few things he said, given that he distrusts me and so would like to throw me off the trail, but regarding Sano-san, he specifically said he agreed for the same reasons I had given (likelihood, over-caution, etc), and that he was his "number one suspect". In this case, I believe him. Gojyo also is the sort who will cast his suspicion vote and not let it go to waste, I believe.

Mmm, both of us asking would be. Please, feel free, then. You'll probably be awake before I am.

I really can't say; if I've drunk any, I haven't noticed. I had an unfortunate run-in with cannabis in camp, but I'm not certain if that was the form or camp or a weakness to herbal supplements. I certainly feel caffeine still.

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n_is_for March 1 2006, 09:48:33 UTC
Mm, well, some is better than none.

I will do so, then. Likely in my own journal under lock, for privacy, which I can leave open to you if you like. He may come to suspect me some for approaching him, but if I explain properly, perhaps he will understand. If he does withhold his vote without certainty then likely he will consider such things carefully before making a judgement.

That's very interesting. You drink a lot of tea?

Ah, Lady is definitely not easing my suspicions towards her.

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_diesmiling_ March 1 2006, 09:53:55 UTC
Yes, that's true.

Of course I'd be interested in hearing the answer whether you report it second-hand or leave it open. Whatever is easiest. Good luck with that.

I suppose it must be. And coffee. With milk, usually ... I'm drinking a lot more tea in camp.

I agree. It's still nothing definite, but... My initial gut instinct would be Roy-san&Lady-san.

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