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1) The American Consumer is Not Okay
Stephen S. Roach was Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and the firm's Chief Economist, and currently is a senior fellow at Yale University’s Jackson Institute of Global Affairs and a senior lecturer at Yale’s School of Management. His most recent book is The Next Asia.
“First, consider the facts: Over the 21 quarters since the beginning of 2008, real (inflation-adjusted) personal consumption has risen at an average annual rate of just 0.9%. That is by far the most protracted period of weakness in real US consumer demand since the end of World War II…”
“One of the first concepts to which an economics student is exposed in a basic macro course is “pent-up” consumer demand. Discretionary consumption is typically deferred during recessions, especially for long-lasting durable goods such as motor vehicles, furniture, and appliances. Once the recession ends and recovery begins, a “stock-adjustment” response takes hold, as households compensate for foregone replacement and update their aging durable goods.”
“By contrast, the release of pent-up demand in the current cycle amounted to just 3% annualized growth in the five quarters from early 2010 to early 2011.”
“The worst consumer recession in modern history, featuring a record collapse in durable-goods expenditures in 2008-2009, should have triggered an outsize surge of pent-up demand. Yet it did anything but that. Instead, the release of pent-up consumer demand was literally half that of previous business cycles.”
“Yes, the stock market is now at an all-time high - but only in current dollars. In real terms, the S&P 500 is still 20% below its January 2000 peak. Similarly, while the Case-Shiller index of US home prices is now up 10.2% over the year ending March 2013, it remains 28% below its 2006 peak. Wealth creation matters, but not until it recoups the wealth destruction that preceded it. Sadly, most American households are still far from recovery on the asset side of their balance sheets.”
“In short, the American consumer’s nightmare is far from over. Spin and frothy markets aside, the healing has only just begun.”
2) “За период с 2004 года по настоящий день в США, Великобритании и Японии была отрицательная доходность пенсионных средств.”
3) Молдаване начинают штой-та падазривать…
“Подводя черту под всем перечисленным, опять же чисто риторический вопрос: «Республика Молдова была оккупирована до 1990 года или всё-таки после?». И кого будем называть оккупантами?”
Михаил Пойсик
Читать далее: http://inosmi.ru/sngbaltia/20130531/209571549.html
“…из-за глупости старшего поколения будет достигнуто то, что более конкурентноспособными в латвийском государстве окажутся молодые люди из русских семей. У врача, знающего три языка, будет более обширная практика. В свою очередь, именно молодой латышский врач, который хорошо говорит по-английски, но не знает русского, скорее уедет в страны, где в общении с пациентами у него не будет проблем.”
Sandris Točs
Читать далее: http://inosmi.ru/sngbaltia/20130531/209565214.html
Stephen S. Roach was Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and the firm's Chief Economist, and currently is a senior fellow at Yale University’s Jackson Institute of Global Affairs and a senior lecturer at Yale’s School of Management. His most recent book is The Next Asia.
“First, consider the facts: Over the 21 quarters since the beginning of 2008, real (inflation-adjusted) personal consumption has risen at an average annual rate of just 0.9%. That is by far the most protracted period of weakness in real US consumer demand since the end of World War II…”
“One of the first concepts to which an economics student is exposed in a basic macro course is “pent-up” consumer demand. Discretionary consumption is typically deferred during recessions, especially for long-lasting durable goods such as motor vehicles, furniture, and appliances. Once the recession ends and recovery begins, a “stock-adjustment” response takes hold, as households compensate for foregone replacement and update their aging durable goods.”
“By contrast, the release of pent-up demand in the current cycle amounted to just 3% annualized growth in the five quarters from early 2010 to early 2011.”
“The worst consumer recession in modern history, featuring a record collapse in durable-goods expenditures in 2008-2009, should have triggered an outsize surge of pent-up demand. Yet it did anything but that. Instead, the release of pent-up consumer demand was literally half that of previous business cycles.”
“Yes, the stock market is now at an all-time high - but only in current dollars. In real terms, the S&P 500 is still 20% below its January 2000 peak. Similarly, while the Case-Shiller index of US home prices is now up 10.2% over the year ending March 2013, it remains 28% below its 2006 peak. Wealth creation matters, but not until it recoups the wealth destruction that preceded it. Sadly, most American households are still far from recovery on the asset side of their balance sheets.”
“In short, the American consumer’s nightmare is far from over. Spin and frothy markets aside, the healing has only just begun.”
2) “За период с 2004 года по настоящий день в США, Великобритании и Японии была отрицательная доходность пенсионных средств.”
3) Молдаване начинают штой-та падазривать…
“Подводя черту под всем перечисленным, опять же чисто риторический вопрос: «Республика Молдова была оккупирована до 1990 года или всё-таки после?». И кого будем называть оккупантами?”
Михаил Пойсик
Читать далее: http://inosmi.ru/sngbaltia/20130531/209571549.html
“…из-за глупости старшего поколения будет достигнуто то, что более конкурентноспособными в латвийском государстве окажутся молодые люди из русских семей. У врача, знающего три языка, будет более обширная практика. В свою очередь, именно молодой латышский врач, который хорошо говорит по-английски, но не знает русского, скорее уедет в страны, где в общении с пациентами у него не будет проблем.”
Sandris Točs
Читать далее: http://inosmi.ru/sngbaltia/20130531/209565214.html