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Entering a last-minute Oscar pool? Here are my predictions (and opinions) on the major awards, along with a rundown of my guesses in every category.
Trust me, because I am an expert! And yes, I will be on the news again.
BEST PICTURE
Will Win: Milk has critical love, but is too niche to win here. The well-regarded Frost/Nixon didn't make much of a dent in the box office, and The Reader has had a mixed reception. The early front-runner was the big budget epic The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, but that was before Slumdog Millionaire swooped in and swept up the early awards. No need to phone a friend - there's virtually no chance anything but Slumdog could claim the top prize.
Should Win: Frost/Nixon was a capable and compelling drama, while the dazzling and truly magical Benjamin Button gave big studio epics a good name again. Meanwhile, The Reader was a sturdy and moving story - though imperfect and ultimately not really deserving of this nomination - and Milk was strong on performance, 70's nostalgia, and an uplifting spirit, but came up short in terms of story and fully realized drama. A win for Slumdog Millionaire is not only an award for a great movie (my favorite of the year), but also a vote of confidence in offbeat fare - hopefully studios will be bolder about financing stories that are as daringly original as this one and off the beaten path. Plus it'll be great to see a movie that's largely subtitled and so centered on another culture take the Oscar. Also, those who complain that the Oscars only reward heavy-handed depressing dramas take note: Slumdog Millionaire is a highly entertaining fable.
BEST ACTOR
Will Win: Tough call. Brad Pitt aging backward was certainly a remarkable feat, but it's as much technical wizardly as it was acting prowess, and some have complained that he didn't show enough range. Richard Jenkins is too unknown. Ditto Frank Langella, whose impeccable performance generated surprisingly little buzz - he might have had a chance in another year, if not for Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke. Between these two, the odds are pretty even. Sean Penn is the more visible of the two, and Hollywood traditionally rewards its well-known veterans. He's also playing a public figure influential in human rights who was assassinated - Oscar bait. He'll get the gay vote. But Mickey Rourke's comeback story might very well trump Penn (who has won before), and his performance has blown away almost everyone who has seen it (and has been generating strong buzz for months). Unlike Milk, The Wrestler isn't likely to win any other awards, so I'm betting the movie's fans will lead Rourke to a win. An upset by Penn is hardly out of question, though.
Should Win: I'm a big fan of Langella's Nixon, reprised from the stage for the screen. But there's no denying how central Rourke's equally powerful performance was to The Wrestler. Given that Langella doesn't really have a shot this year, I'm on Team Rourke.
BEST ACTRESS
Will Win: The Academy went and made things complicated by ignoring The Reader's campaign for Best Supporting Actress and nominated Kate Winslet here instead. Anne Hathaway's strong buzz has carried her this far but no further. Angelina Jolie's role is easily her best work to date, but the film got a pretty cool reception. Melissa Leo is too obscure a name in an equally obscure film. Meryl Streep's SAG win means she can't totally be counted out, but the odds are against her: Winslet has been nominated five times without a win, and the Academy loves to reward its previous losers. The Reader's other nominations road the coattails of her performance, so this is the one that it'll win. It'll be a double statuette for her equally impressive work in the snubbed Revolutionary Road.
Should Win: It's a crime that Sally Hawkins was snubbed for Happy-Go-Lucky - perhaps too light-hearted for voters to notice the difficulty of her role. So this award should go to Kate Winslet, for...Revolutionary Road. But the Academy prefers its winners under a ton of makeup - see Charlize Theron's ugly mug in Monster, Nicole Kidman's fake nose in The Hours. Melissa Leo, though a strong actress, seems to have been nominated because she was playing someone poor, and Jolie turned in a performance that was easily the best thing about Changeling. I was particularly impressed by Hathaway's strong work and another stellar turn from Streep, but I have to give this one to Winslet for being phenomenal in everything.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will Win: The most predictable race of the year: Brolin, Shannon, Downey, and Hoffman...thanks for playing. Heath Ledger. Hands down.
Should Win: Ledger. And it's not a sympathy vote. He's largely the reason The Dark Knight became the second highest-grosser of all-time, not to mention why it was so compelling. One of the truly great screen villains of all time. This year's other four nominees were all quite capable, but none were nearly so mesmerizing. This is an award for Ledger's great performance this year and all the ones we'll never see.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will Win: One of the tougher races to predict. Viola Davis has built a lot of buzz, but Amy Adams' nomination might split the Doubt vote. Taraji P. Henson didn't quite have the showstopping effect needed to pull off a triumph here and is this category's least likely winner, while Marisa Tomei will probably be overshadowed by Mickey Rourke - and she's won this before. That leaves Penelope Cruz, who screams, cries, and shoots somebody in a passionate rage - plus she's bilingual (and bisexual)! Fans of her previous work (particularly Volver) are likely to carry her to a win.
Should Win: Cruz. She comes into the movie late, but when she does she kicks the already-good Vicky Cristina Barcelona into high gear with a funny and fiery performance.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will Win: The Reader has as many detractors as fans, and Revolutionary Road was shut out of other major categories. Frost/Nixon doesn't have the buzz. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button is a long shot thanks to its sprawling scope, big themes, and heart-tugging drama, but as in virtually every category it's nominated in, Slumdog stands to take the prize.
Should Win: These are all great scripts, but Slumdog Millionaire. It's most original story, and the difficult structure - moving back and forth in time, framed by a game show - took a skilled craftsman to pull off.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will Win: A lackluster year for original screenplays. The darkly funny In Bruges is too edgy and indie, while the well-respected Mike Leigh's offbeat comedy Happy-Go-Lucky hasn't been widely seen and is probably also too quirky and shapeless. Voters will probably see the dialogue-light WALL*E as a greater feat for visuals than the written word, and the spare Frozen River was lucky to even be nominated. That means fans of Milk are more likely to see the film win in this category than in any other.
Should Win: Strangely and unfortunately, both Jenny Lumet's Rachel Getting Married and Woody Allen's Vicky Cristina Barcelona were undeservedly left out of this, the year's most frustrating race. The ho-hum script for Frozen River was nothing special, and as much as I was impressed by what WALL*E brought to the normally predictable family-friendly table, I have to admit that the screenplay is no match for the film's execution. While I admire the painstaking research and good intentions that went into Dustin Lance Black's Milk, it's a disjointed screenplay that jarringly stops and starts dramatically. Black is lucky that strong actors, smooth direction, and the built-in support for the movie's subject matter adequately hid the script's flaws. I quite enjoyed the refreshing Happy-Go-Lucky but so much rested on Sally Hawkins' performance and improvisation, which means my love goes toward Martin McDonagh's bizarre dramedy In Bruges.
BEST DIRECTOR
Will Win: David Fincher was the early favorite for pulling off the technical wizardly of Benjamin Button while making sure the human drama was just as captivating. But Slumdog Millionaire has a more enthusiastic fan base and Danny Boyle has taken home the early prizes. That means the more traditional choices of Ron Howard and Stephen Daldry will go home empty-handed, as will the arthouse-friendly Gus van Sant.
Should Win: Danny Boyle. Few other directors could have captured the spirit and energy of Mumbai and the tricky tone of Slumdog Millionaire. I doubt many would have even bothered to try. He deserves all the kudos he gets for his flawless execution of such tricky material and giving audiences such an original movie.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Will Win: Pixar is always good, but this year they took it to the next level with a film that appeared on scores of major critics' Top 10 lists. WALL*E's snub in the Best Picture category almost ensures that it will take this one.
Should Win: Admittedly, I haven't seen Bolt or Kung Fu Panda, but there's no way both of them combined match the revolutionary daring and genius of WALL*E.
And my predictions in every category...
BEST PICTURE
[ ] The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
[ ] Frost/Nixon
[ ] Milk
[ ] The Reader
[ X ] Slumdog Millionaire
DIRECTOR
[ ] David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
[ ] Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
[ ] Gus Van Sant, Milk
[ ] Stephen Daldry, The Reader
[ X ] Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
[ ] Frozen River
[ ] Happy-Go-Lucky
[ ] In Bruges
[ X ] Milk
[ ] WALL-E
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
[ ] The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
[ ] Doubt
[ ] Frost/Nixon
[ ] The Reader
[ X ] Slumdog Millionaire
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
[ ] Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
[ ] Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
[ ] Sean Penn, Milk
[ ] Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
[ X ] Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
[ ] Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
[ ] Angelina Jolie, Changeling
[ ] Melissa Leo, Frozen River
[ ] Meryl Streep, Doubt
[ X ] Kate Winslet, The Reader
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
[ ] Josh Brolin, Milk
[ ] Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
[ ] Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
[ X ] Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
[ ] Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
[ ] Amy Adams, Doubt
[ X ] Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
[ ] Viola Davis, Doubt
[ ] Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
[ ] Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
[ ] The Baader Meinhof Complex (Germany)
[ X ] The Class (France)
[ ] Departures (Japan)
[ ] Revanche (Austria)
[ ] Waltz with Bashir (Israel)
ANIMATED FEATURE
[ ] Bolt
[ ] Kung Fu Panda
[ X ] WALL-E
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
[ ] The Betrayal (Nerakhoon)
[ ] Encounters at the End of the World
[ ] The Garden
[ X ] Man on Wire
[ ] Trouble the Water
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
[ ] The Conscience of Nhem En
[ ] The Final Inch
[ ] Smile Pinki
[ X ] The Witness - From the Balcony of Room 306
SHORT FILM - ANIMATED
[ ] La Maison En Petits Cubes
[ ] Lavatory - Lovestory
[ ] Oktapodi
[ X ] Presto
[ ] This Way Up
SHORT FILM - LIVE ACTION
[ X ] Auf Der Strecke (On the Line)
[ ] Manon on the Asphalt
[ ] New Boy
[ ] The Pig
[ ] Spielzeugland (Toyland)
ORIGINAL SCORE
[ ] The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
[ ] Defiance
[ ] Milk
[ X ] Slumdog Millionaire
[ ] WALL-E
ORIGINAL SONG
[ ] "Down to Earth" - WALL-E
[ X ] "Jai Ho" - Slumdog Millionaire
[ ] "O Saya" - Slumdog Millionaire
ART DIRECTION
[ ] Changeling
[ X ] The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
[ ] The Dark Knight
[ ] The Duchess
[ ] Revolutionary Road
CINEMATOGRAPHY
[ ] Changeling
[ ] The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
[ ] The Dark Knight
[ ] The Reader
[ X ] Slumdog Millionaire
COSTUME DESIGN
[ ] Australia
[ ] The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
[ X ] The Duchess
[ ] Milk
[ ] Revolutionary Road
MAKEUP
[ X ] The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
[ ] The Dark Knight
[ ] Hellboy II: The Golden Army
SOUND MIXING
[ ] The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
[ X ] The Dark Knight
[ ] Slumdog Millionaire
[ ] WALL-E
[ ] Wanted
SOUND EDITING
[ X ] The Dark Knight
[ ] Iron Man
[ ] Slumdog Millionaire
[ ] WALL-E
[ ] Wanted
VISUAL EFFECTS
[ X ] The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
[ ] The Dark Knight
[ ] Iron Man
FILM EDITING
[ ] The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
[ ] The Dark Knight
[ ] Frost/Nixon
[ ] Milk
[ X ] Slumdog Millionaire