Just in time, too!
*Movies I have not seen yet are marked with an asterisk - otherwise, I have seen all performances/films noted.
Best Motion Picture of the Year
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck.
Munich
Will Win: Hollywood is practically peeing itself in anticipation of the opportunity to give it's biggest award to a gay-themed movie. There's no way anyone is going to stop Brokeback Mountain from pulling down the top prize, and the entire audience will clap in all their self-congratulatory glory.
Should Win: Now, I thought Brokeback Mountain was a great movie. GREAT movie. But I don't think it should win. I think that honor is actually a tie between Crash and Capote, the former for being an extremely relevant parable of race relations that never fails on intensity or emotional involvement, and the former for, well, being an awesome study of evil and moral ambiguity - and besides, I'm the "Capote" girl, so I can't ignore it.
Best Performance for an Actor in a Leading Role
Philip Seymour Hoffman for Capote
Terrence Howard for Hustle & Flow
Heath Ledger for Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Phoenix for Walk the Line
David Strathairn for Good Night, and Good Luck.
Will win and Should win: I'm playing the "Capote" card again. Hoffman delivers a brilliant performance, and I really don't take into consideration his imitation of Truman Capote. It's the PERFORMANCE that won me over - the eyes, the looks, the nuances. Although I believe in Hoffman's worthiness for bringing home the top award, all five nominees were truly amazing, and all richly deserved their nomination.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Judi Dench for Mrs. Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman for Transamerica
Keira Knightley for Pride & Prejudice
Charlize Theron for North Country
Reese Witherspoon for Walk the Line
Will win: Reese Witherspoon will take the award. She's got the edge over Huffman because her movie was bigger profile and she's a Hollywood darling playing a beloved music darling.
Should win: Although Witherspoon did very well in Walk the Line, Huffman deserves the award over her. Her heartbreaking performance in Transamerica is absolutely amazing. 'Nuff said.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
George Clooney for Syriana
Matt Dillon for Crash
Paul Giamatti for Cinderella Man
Jake Gyllenhaal for Brokeback Mountain
William Hurt for A History of Violence
Will win: I'm going with the favorite here, Paul Giamatti. The Academy is desperately trying to atone for it's sin of ignoring his Role Of A Lifetime in Sideways last year. Luckily, Giamatti's pretty good in Cinderella Man as well, so the award will go to a deserving actor.
Should win: I'm actually going to say Matt Dillon deserves the award over everyone else in this category. William Hurt could have played his part in his sleep, as could Giamatti, if it came to that; I saw no brilliance in Clooney's performance - I don't understand the hype around it AT ALL - and Gyllenhaal, while very good, didn't affect me the way Dillon did. Matt Dillon did so much with so little in Crash - he angered you and two seconds later, broke your heart. It's really a shame that with all the hype around Giamatti and Clooney, Dillon stands no chance whatsoever to win, because he gave an amazing performance.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams for Junebug
Catherine Keener for Capote
Frances McDormand for North Country
Rachel Weisz for The Constant Gardener
Michelle Williams for Brokeback Mountain
Will win: Rachel Weisz, come on down!! She has all the momentum heading in to Sunday's awards.
Should win: Weisz is very good in Constant Gardener. VERY good. If she wins, it will go to a very deserving performance. However, I feel that Amy Adams deserves it more. Her turn in Junebug gives the movie it's soul.
Best Achievement in Directing
George Clooney for Good Night, and Good Luck.
Paul Haggis for Crash
Ang Lee for Brokeback Mountain
Bennett Miller for Capote
Steven Spielberg for Munich
Will win: Ang Lee, no question about it.
Should win: Actually, I'll go with Ang Lee again in this one. The shots, the camera angles, everything in his control he used to shape Brokeback Mountain.
Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen
Crash - Paul Haggis, Robert Moresco
Good Night, and Good Luck. - George Clooney, Grant Heslov
Match Point - Woody Allen
The Squid and the Whale - Noah Baumbach
Syriana - Stephen Gaghan
Will win: The Academy will take this opportunity to award Crash an oscar, as this is the only category where it's not up against heavy-hitter Brokeback Mountain.
Should win: The Squid and the Whale. A shamefully overlooked film, the writing is exquisite and funny and pointed, all of it.
Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published
Brokeback Mountain - Larry McMurtry, Diana Ossana
Capote - Dan Futterman
The Constant Gardener - Jeffrey Caine
A History of Violence - Josh Olson
Munich - Tony Kushner, Eric Roth
Will win: Yet another Brokeback award.
Should win: Other than Munich, they all richly deserve the nomination. But, being ever the fangirl, I go with Capote on who should win. Why? Brokeback was based very tightly on a short story. There were very few things added to it - they had a great starting resource. Capote had to undergo a far more complicated adaptation to turn a biography of Truman Capote into a film focusing on a very specific period in his life. In Capote, the dialogue drives the film, and none of it is idle or misplaced. Besides - I want to see Dan Futterman walk on stage.
Best Achievement in Cinematography
Batman Begins - Wally Pfister
Brokeback Mountain - Rodrigo Prieto
Good Night, and Good Luck. - Robert Elswit
Memoirs of a Geisha - Dion Beebe
*The New World - Emmanuel Lubezki
Will win: Brokeback Mountain, anyone? Anyone?
Should win: This is a category where I feel like Brokeback Mountain is legitimately the most deserving candidate. Wonderful wide shots of the midwest and the bleakness of daily life... very well shot.
Best Animated Feature Film of the Year
Corpse Bride - Tim Burton, Mike Johnson
*Hauru no ugoku shiro/Howl's Moving Castle - Hayao Miyazaki
Wallace & Gromit in The Curse of the Were-Rabbit - Steve Box, Nick Park
Will win and Should win: Haven't seen Moving Castle, but I think this is Tim Burton's time for Corpse Bride. Wallace and Gromit is supercute, but it's already won an Oscar in the short category. Burton accomplishes MORE through his animation than W&G. A well-deserved award.
Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
*Bestia nel cuore, La - Cristina Comencini (Italy)
*Joyeux Noël - Christian Carion (France)
Paradise Now - Hany Abu-Assad (Palestine)
*Sophie Scholl: Die letzten Tage / Sophie Scholl: The Final Days - Marc Rothemund (Germany)
*Tsotsi - Gavin Hood (South Africa)
Will and Should Win: I'm definitely pulling for Paradise Now - it's an absolutely unbelievable film. It's biggest competition is definitely Tsotsi, which I have not seen, but I have difficulty imagining a film better painted than Paradise Now. I'm hoping that politics won't influence the voters in this category, and that if the Palestinian film doesn't win, that it's not because it's Palestinian.
Best Documentary, Features
*Darwin's Nightmare - Hubert Sauper
*Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room - Alex Gibney, Jason Kliot
Marche de l'empereur, La / March of the Penguins - Luc Jacquet, Yves Darondeau
Murderball - Henry Alex Rubin, Dana Adam Shapiro
*Street Fight - Marshall Curry
Will win: March of the Penguins. The most press, the best visibility, the most box office, and difficult shooting conditions make this a shoo-in.
Should Win: I wasn't impressed with Penguins. I'm getting Enron from Netflix tomorrow, so I can better pick then, but I thought Murderball was much better shaped than Penguins. I cared about the people in Murderball, and I thought their story arc was wonderful.
I defer on all the Short Subject categories, as I have seen none of them
Best Documentary, Short Subjects
God Sleeps in Rwanda - Kimberlee Acquaro, Stacy Sherman
A Note of Triumph: The Golden Age of Norman Corwin - Corinne Marrinan, Eric Simonson
The Life of Kevin Carter - Dan Krauss
The Mushroom Club - Steven Okazaki
Will win:
Best Short Film, Animated
Badgered - Sharon Colman
The Moon and the Son - John Canemaker, Peggy Stern
The Mysterious Geographic Explorations of Jasper Morello - Anthony Lucas
9 - Shane Acker
One Man Band - Mark Andrews, Andrew Jimenez
Will win:
Best Short Film, Live Action
Ausreißer - Ulrike Grote
Cashback - Sean Ellis, Lene Bausager
Síðasti bærinn í dalnum - Rúnar Rúnarsson, Þórir Snær Sigurjónsson
Our Time Is Up - Rob Pearlstein, Pia Clemente
Six Shooter - Martin McDonagh
Will Win:
Best Achievement in Editing
Cinderella Man
The Constant Gardener
Crash
Munich
Walk the Line
Will win and Should win: Crash will pick up an award here for managing to sew about a dozen separate plot lines together with the deftest of touches.
Best Achievement in Art Direction
Good Night, and Good Luck.
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire
King Kong
Memoirs of a Geisha
Pride & Prejudice
Will win and Should win: Here's where Good Night, and Good Luck picks up it's Oscar, and it will be very well-deserved.
Best Achievement in Costume Design
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
Memoirs of a Geisha
Mrs. Henderson Presents
Pride & Prejudice
Walk the Line
Will Win and Should win: As much as the movie kinda blows, Memoirs of a Geisha is a worthy pick here. The costumes are simply stunning.
Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score
Brokeback Mountain - Gustavo Santaolalla
The Constant Gardener - Alberto Iglesias
Memoirs of a Geisha - John Williams
Munich - John Williams
Pride & Prejudice - Dario Marianelli
Will win: Brokeback Mountain. Again.
Should win: Pride and Prejudice has a fantastic and wonderfully fitting score. It's a pity it's likely to be overlooked.
Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song
Hustle & Flow - It's Hard Out Here For a Pimp
Crash - In the Deep
Transamerica - Travellin' Thru
Will win: "Travellin' Thru."
Should Win: I gotta go with "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp," mostly because I'd LOVE to see a song with "pimp" in the title win an Oscar.
Best Achievement in Makeup
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe
Cinderella Man
Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith
Will Win and Should Win: Narnia will take the prize here. Star Wars is too "outer space-y" compared to Chronic-what?-cles of Narnia, whose makeup is fantastic AND realistic at the same time.
Best Achievement in Sound
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe
King Kong
Memoirs of a Geisha
Walk the Line
*War of the Worlds
Will and Should win: King Kong, although Walk the Line might be the sympathetic choice because it got shut out in the Best Picture category.
Best Achievement in Sound Editing
King Kong
Memoirs of a Geisha
*War of the Worlds
Will and Should win: King Kong is a no brainer here.
Best Achievement in Visual Effects
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe
King Kong
*War of the Worlds
Will Win: King Kong
Should Win: Narnia