Dan Picks the Oscars

[ferociouswalrus]

It's that time of year again. I'm a big fan of movies. I'm a big fan of making lists. This I'm a fan of the Oscars. Here we go...

BEST PICTURE
Will Win: Babel - Well, at least it's better than "Crash".
Should Win: The Departed - There were several movies I went to this year where I walked out feeling like I'd just seen a masterpiece. Only one is up for Best Pic.
Why aren't they nominated?: Casino Royale - Why isn't the most entertaining movie of the year usually up in this category? You're telling me there were 5 movies in 1983 better than "Back to the Future"? Those of us who thought "Return of the King"'s win opened this up for big fun action movies seem to have been wrong. "Casino Royale" is probably the best reviewed big fun movie of the year.

BEST DIRECTOR
Will Win: Martin Scorsese - The Departed - Best Pic is wide open, but Director doesn't seem to be.
Should Win: Martin Scorsese - The Departed - He's obviously way overdue. This is to make up for "Raging Bull", and "Goodfellas", and "Taxi Driver", and... you get the point.
Why aren't they nominated?: Alfonso Cuaron - Children of Men - Whatever you think of the movie, and I understand it has flaws, the directing technique displayed was certainly the best of the year.

BEST ACTOR
Will Win: Forest Whitaker - The Last King of Scotland - He's won every award in the run-up.
Should Win: Ryan Gosling - Half Nelson - I've only seen the trailer for this movie, but just from that one gets the sense of a very nuanced, natural, and yet powerful performance.
Why aren't they nominated?: Sacha Baron Cohen - Borat - You know you wanted it. The biggest factor in that movie's success is the sheer force of his personality.

BEST ACTRESS
Will Win: Helen Mirren - The Queen - She's the biggest lock in a major category in years.
Should Win: Kate Winslet - Little Children - This is at least partly a protest pick against Mirren... I never quite understood what the big deal was about her performance.
Why aren't they nominated?: Kirsten Dunst - Marie Antoinette - I thought this was one of the most underrated movies of the year, and you could have played the whole thing on Dunst's face.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will Win: Eddie Murphy - Dreamgirls - He's got all the momentum, though this isn't a lock: Arkin or Wahlberg have outside shots.
Should Win: Mark Wahlberg - The Departed - Amidst every male movie star on the planet in this movie, he stole every scene he was in. "I'm the guy who does his job, you must be the other guy" might be my favorite line from any of this year's major movies.
Why aren't they nominated?: Jack Nicholson - The Departed - This performance seemed to me to have Oscar written all over it. What happened?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will Win: Jennifer Hudson - Dreamgirls - She is pretty impressive, though her acting seems to be much better when she's singing than when she isn't.
Should Win: Rinko Kikuchi - Not really wanting to pick Hudson or a little girl (Breslin was great in "Little Miss Sunshine", but is what she did really acting?) I was not real impressed with this bunch of nominees.
Why aren't they nominated?: Jessica Biel - The Illusionist - This is where I give props to two of the most overlooked movies in this race, the "The Prestige" and "The Illusionist", which are two very different films but will always be grouped together in people's minds. Biel might have delivered the year's most mesmerizing performance.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will Win: Michael Arndt - Little Miss Sunshine - This movie was mostly good because of its script, and people get that.
Should Win: Michael Arndt - Little Miss Sunshine - I get it too.
Why aren't they nominated?: Stranger Than Fiction - The year's most metafictional movie... and I loves me my metafiction.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will Win: William Monahan - The Departed - How many remakes far surpass the original?
Should Win: William Monahan - The Departed - Well, they should.
Why aren't they nominated?: Thank You For Smoking - This was an awesome movie that seemed to me to be, a la Little Miss Sunshine, mostly good because of its script.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Will Win: Cars
Should Win: Happy Feet
Why aren't they nominated?: A Scanner Darkly

BEST FORIEGN LANGUAGE FILM
Will Win: Pan's Labyrinth
Should Win: Pan's Labyrinth
Why Aren't They Nominated?: The Curse of the Golden Flower

BEST DOCUMENTARY
Will Win: An Inconvient Truth
Should Win: Jesus Camp
Why aren't they nominated?: Wordplay

BEST ART DIRECTION
Will Win: Pan's Labyrinth
Should Win: Pan's Labyrinth
Why aren't they nominated?: Marie Antoinette

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will Win: Pan's Labyrinth
Should Win: Children of Men
Why aren't they nominated?: The Fountain

BEST FILM EDITING
Will Win: Babel
Should Win: Children of Men
Why aren't they nominated?: Casino Royale

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Will Win: The Queen
Should Win: Pan's Labyrinth
Why aren't they nominated?: The Fountain

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Will Win: "Listen" from Dreamgirls
Should Win: "I Need to Wake Up" from An Inconvenient Truth
Why aren't they nominated?: "Upside Down" from Curious George

BEST SOUND EDITING
Will Win: Letters from Iwo Jima
Should Win: Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Why aren't they nominated?: V for Vendetta

BEST SOUND MIXING
Will Win: Dreamgirls
Should Win: Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Why aren't they nominated?: Happy Feet

BEST MAKEUP
Will Win: Pan's Labyrinth
Should Win: Pan's Labyrinth
Why aren't they nominated?: Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

BEST COSTUMES
Will Win: Dreamgirls
Should Win: The Curse of the Golden Flower
Why aren't they nominated?: Apocalypto

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Will Win: Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Should Win: Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Why aren't they nominated?: X-Men: The Last Stand