Time to get real about winning this election
Listen, liberals, it's time to stop whining about campaign ads and the qualifications or lack thereof of VP nominees. The real election is happening on the ground--the enemy is re-energized, it knows how to fight and it has no conscience. Consider this bit from Michigan, a plan to disenfranchise the foreclosed:
The chairman of the Republican Party in Macomb County, Michigan, a key swing county in a key swing state, is planning to use a list of foreclosed homes to block people from voting in the upcoming election as part of the state GOP’s effort to challenge some voters on Election Day.
“We will have a list of foreclosed homes and will make sure people aren’t voting from those addresses,” party chairman James Carabelli told Michigan Messenger in a telephone interview earlier this week.
In the past two elections a very clear pattern of polarization has emerged on the electoral map. The West Coast and New England vote Democratic, the South and the plains/Rockies vote Republican. Florida was a battleground in 2000 but really isn't anymore. The real battleground states this time around are Michigan, Colorado, Virginia, and Ohio.
The guys over at fivethirtyeight.com have some excellent statistical models of the election based on current polls and the electoral college (538 is the number of electoral college votes, 270 is what it takes to win). Currently McCain is a 52 to 48 favorite to win, but there is are two very important learnings here:
- there's no way for McCain to win without taking Ohio
- There's also no way for Obama to win without taking at least one of Michigan and Ohio
In simple terms this means that if Obama wins Ohio, he wins the election. If Obama loses Ohio he absolutely must win Michigan. It's that simple. This is where your energy should be focused, where your dollars should be sent. Got relatives in Ohio or Michigan? Call them up, ask them to spread the word on how evil McCain and Palin are (the rape kit story is a good one, but they can make up random lies if they want). Got ideas to fuck with the Republican machine? How about volunteering as a Republican and then sabotaging a get out the vote campaign, or stealing fliers, or deliberately misprinting rumors on their own letterhead. Get nasty, fight dirty, and be in it to win. Give money til it hurts. Do not satisfy yourself with righteous indignation and a thoughtful comment on a WaPo story.