Турция и переформатирование Ближнего Востока
Hugh Pope: The ‘Turkish Model’ and the Middle East
But it is too early to dismiss Turkey’s role in the region. Even while threatened with refugee flows from Syria, Turkey has not blinked from its no-visa policy for several Middle Eastern states. And unlike the state-to-state relationships of many outside powers active in the Middle East, Turkey’s engagement is also backed by dense business relationships, four flights per day to most capitals and the sale of scores of soap operas to the local broadcasters.
Вот это называется - многоуровневое проникновение и культурная экспансия.
Turkey has enjoyed 90 years largely free of war and revolution. Reforms have benefited hugely from an EU accession process that no Middle East state can hope for. While oil income both blesses and curses many regional governments, Turkey has little and has been forced to develop a pluralistic economy and openness to the world. Finally, Turkey is anchored by a state rooted in the Ottoman and even Byzantine empires, a situation that only Egypt and Iran can come close to.
All these have helped Turkey find momentum and a path forward, while its neighbors are still seeking one. Like many of the Middle East’s partners, it is suffering setbacks in the latest unrest, and many aspects of its own ethnic Kurdish problem still need closure. But all the signs are that Turkey will be able to adapt, and that its system is more in tune with the positive new forces of the Middle East than the oppressive ones of the old.
В принципе - верно, перед Турцией действительно стоит только одна реально БОЛЬШАЯ проблема - курды. И если модус операнди ранее был довольно прост - на пару с соседями (Сирия, Ирак, Иран) давить сепаратистов, то теперь нужно искать другие пути.
Возможно, кстати - парадоксально - туркам выгодно мягкое переформатирование Ирака и Сирии, при котором курды получат тот или иной уровень автономии, а то и государственность, что позволит несколько отвлечь курдов от собственно Турции. Да и договориться с новым государством тоже всегда можно. Впрочем, де-факто курдское государство уже существует.