Thursday, 7 May 2020: Social Distancing
Another day of social distancing, which in my case means I only left my apartment to go for a short walk around Park Towne Place's grounds. My step count before I left were 84 for the day...and I started my walk at 5:30 p.m., just to make sure you realize how pathetic that count is...but it now totals 1,599. Still pathetic, actually, but better
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x% of diagnosed Covid-19 patinets are dying.
The majority of cases are mild and the mild cases are not being diagnosed so the majority of diagnoses are more severe cases.
To date only 0.37% of US population has been diagnosed as positive. Globally around 7.1% of those diagnosed have died, but the US figure is currently running at 5.98%. More diagnoses obtained by testing more of the population wouldlower that percentage further.
In countries with more than 1000 cases so as to exclude people kettled in ships and one death coulting as 25% of those diagnosed dying, France has 18.82% dying Belgium 16.42% and here in the UK 14.96%. Here testing levels are low due to lack of reliable tests until the past two weeks and until recently have only taken place in hospital admissions and healthcare workers. Our diagnoses are at 201k, but were more of the less severe and less likely to die cases diagnosed, say 400k had been tested positive, then our figure would fall to 7%.
I do have reservations about the US figures. For an illness that takes up to 2 weeks to become severe the deaths and diagnoses are tracking each other too closely. I can only imagine this would be because testing is being done late on when people are already dying. Reactive rather than proactively.
You might find this website informative.
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I think the problem with our denominator continues: we are still not doing what I would call 'community testing' to determine the rate of infection in a hot spot. Instead, we still seem to be generally testing only symptomatic individuals.
Also, on April 15th the BBC reported that Cuomo had added over 3,500 deaths to the total, based on his analysis of a surge in deaths outside of the healthcare system. Apparently there are problems with the numerator as well as the denominator, probably nation-wide. There are gaps in our data collection you could drive a truck through.
I would vote for Cuomo for president in a heart beat if he ran. Which he won't. *sigh* FanSee
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