First of all, happy New Year!
(Image: Best Animations)
Wow, it's been a long time since January last year! Time really flies so fast, the perception of time is lost on me somehow. 2017 has been quite an eventful year after what could be considered a downer 2016. We've been blessed with the abundance of new television shows and movies, as well as the new seasons of your favorite series, but at the same time the year sucked us with a bigger-scale fandom drama (one can trace back to
Supergirl's controversial SDCC interview back in July) and a couple of injustice happening in parts of the world. However, this has also been a year of fighting back as sexual abuse allegations gets revealed one by one, with
Rose McGowan taking her stand against Harvey Weinstein for the mentioned reason, which in turn also uncovered a series of sexual abuse cases too.
Starting in January, we will once again encounter that time of the year: the awards season! It's the season where critics will give the award to the best in television, movies, and acting of the previous year, which in this case it's 2017. The unique thing is that nominations for Critics' Choice Awards, Golden Globe Awards, and Screen Actors Guild Awards are adjacent to each other, while the three awards will all have its ceremony in January. I hope you readers prepared enough for another Awards Season ride!
THE AWARDS LOW-DOWN
With nominations for three of the prestigious awards for both television and movies revealed, opening the doors to the new and exciting yet Awards Season, the stage is set for the January full of prize-giving to the best in television and movies in 2017. The 23rd Critics' Choice Awards released its nominations list on December 6, followed with the Golden Globes five days later, and eventually the Screen Actors Guild Awards which is just two days from the Golden Globes. Nominations for the 90th Academy Awards will be on January 23, 2018.
The rest of the awards left their marks for the ceremony date; the Grammys will be held on January 28, the 90th Academy Awards at March 4, and the 70th Primetime Emmys much later at September 17. In a prominent move, this year's People's Choice Awards will in fact
take place on November 11 instead of January, placing itself outside of the usual Awards Season calendar. This is definitely the reason why the PCAs didn't run its voting phase yet, which I would expect them to come between September or October. This was made worse by the fact that its Twitter account didn't seem to post anything yet until they broke the silence with the announcement as stated above.
The Gold Derby site has the complete guide to the voting periods and nomination dates of the movie/TV awards which you can access
here!
THE SHAPE OF POSSIBLE DOMINATION?
The Shape of Water has collected 23 nominations across all three of the upcoming January's prestigious awards (Image: IndieWire)
The 23rd Critics' Choice Awards,
unveiling its nominations first on December 6, revealed the new name to watch out for: The Shape of Water, a fantasy romance movie directed by
Benicio del Toro Guillermo del Toro, packed with 14 nominations, two nominations higher than La La Land in the previous edition. Its rivals will be the likes of Call Me by Your Name, Dunkirk, Lady Bird, and The Post, all of which collecting eight nominations and the Best Picture nomination, which could make the movie race even tighter and more exciting. On the TV side, FEUD: Bette and Joan scored six nominations, so much for their revenge scheme after being winless in the main event of the Emmys, defeated by the likes of Big Little Lies and The Handmaid's Tale much to Jackie Hoffman's dismay. However, with Big Little Lies having five nominations, the HBO series could be in for another attack to land on Ryan Murphy's series. Meanwhile, Fargo and GLOW both receive five and four nominations respectively.
In the
Golden Globes, The Shape of Water has seven nominations which also included the Best Drama Motion Picture category and the Best Actress category through Sally Hawkins. However, The Post and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri will be its worthy rival in the gala within a week, with both movies having six nominations which also included the Best Motion Picture nomination as well. Scoring four nominations, Lady Bird is the award's name to watch in the Comedy/Musical race, being the most-nominated among the category, and will compete alongside Get Out. The Greatest Showman, and I, Tonya. Big Little Lies meanwhile spreads its wings in the TV categories with six nominations, followed by FEUD: Bette and Joan with four nominations, and the three-nomination pack of The Handmaid's Tale, This Is Us, and Fargo. I have a feeling that the HBO drama would steamroll all of them, but while the Golden Globe nominations were the second to come out compared to Critics' Choice, the deciders for both movies and TV will take place within a week!
Last but not least, the SAG Awards, whose
nominations came just two days short after the Golden Globes' and will be held ten days after the same award. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri earns four nods here, the most among the movies, and not even The Shape of Water has any chance to win the Best Cast Ensemble category though its actor nominations can be a saving grace to retain its momentum should the movie swept the two award shows before. A tight race is also to be expected in the TV categories between three shows with four nominations: Big Little Lies, GLOW, and Stranger Things, although BLL's whole nomination centers around acting categories which won't do much to dominate.
The Shape of Water is clearly the name to watch out for on the virtue of the number of nominations throughout the three awards, but will it able to copy La La Land's last year feat of winning most of the categories it's in? The challenge is upon the Guillermo del Toro-directed movie, and with the fact that the musical movie managed to
clean sweep last year's Golden Globes, things will be anything but easy. On the TV side, The Handmaid's Tale and Big Little Lies are on the roll fresh out of their
Emmys big break, but will their success translate to January's Awards Season ensemble momentum just like The People v. O.J. Simpson had? The first of the American Crime Story series scored 7 wins out of 14 nominations in the span of the three award shows, half of its total nominations after Emmys.
In another story, movies like Dunkirk, Disney's Beauty and the Beast, Wonder Woman, Get Out, and Baby Driver continue their journey from where they all left off: MTV TV & Movie Awards and Teen Choice. Though as this will be a no-holds-barred race from this point onwards, can any of them survive with at least one win come Golden Globes? Will they able to get the same momentum in the remainder of the Awards Season? Will Beauty and the Beast and Wonder Woman be able to seize at least one award in Critics' Choice to add in their strong seeding? Their survival game has finally started.
FINALLY, A DEBUT!
Ditching
the old World Fandom Championship format succeeded me in coming up with a new system to determine which television series and movies seize the season with a unique point scoring system and a separate classification for both media since, seeing the fact that there are basically more 'events' for television than there are movie 'events'. For that reason, the Coefficient System will be utilized from now on, awarding points for nominations and wins in select awards and other events considered based on the list, inspired by the
UEFA Coefficient Ranking System. The difference is that prestigious awards will reward more than other awards, meaning that, for example, an Emmy-winning series will have absolutely more edge than a Teen Choice-winning series that won 6 or more categories in one go. In addition, a different calculation system will be adopted for TV and movies: the movie system will be in a single-year format while the TV system would have up to three years, consisting of the current year, and the last two years, with finished shows, either by the virtue of series finale or cancellation, will be retired two years since its last episode, which from there on the show will no longer score any point. The retirement rule will not apply if the show is in the long hiatus (I hear you Game of Thrones, don't worry).
However, taking Gilmore Girls' Netflix revival case to mind, the series can re-enter itself to the classification from the first episode's airing. In the last post, the show competed in the
2016 SpoilerTV Favorite Series Competition as an ineligible show in the Spreadsheet!WFC, precisely the 2016 WFC Season which Orange Is The New Black was the World Champion on the virtue of eligibility criteria: its last episode dated May 15, 2007 pretty much clinched it, and by the coefficient system standards it would've been retired by May 15, 2009. Come the Netflix revival however, titled Gilmore Girls: A Year in Life, it put itself back to the eligibility period for at least November 25, 2018 (two years since its release) unless if they had another season to be made, and that would be enough to allow the series to score some points even eclipsing the full 2018 season. The four-episode Netflix limited miniseries hasn't been on the awards radar and only competed in polling competitions, eventually seeded 160th below Broad City and Law & Order: SVU but above Designated Survivor.
Here's a sample spreadsheet to give you a clearer picture of how the coefficient system would run. You can view this in
full screen or download the Excel file
here.
Explaining the system further, a series, a movie, and an actor will have a point for every nomination they are in. The series/movie an actor is considered in a nomination will also count towards respective series/movie, exception being in People's Choice Awards where an actor is nominated without referencing the series/movie considered. Points will also be awarded for category wins, be it a series, a movie, or an actor, with different scoring categories as explained in the spreadsheet's list, such that series/movie genre category wins (e.g. "Best Drama Movie/Series", "Best Comedy Movie/Series") will have different scoring than acting category wins (e.g. "Best Lead Actor", "Best Supporting Actor", "Best Guest Actor") and technical category wins as well (e.g. "Best Writing", "Best Directing"). In the end, all the nominations and wins will eventually be calculated to determine the coefficient of each series and movie for the season. While I have decided to use the 2-year period for the movie calculation (in this case, 2017 and 2018), the only awards considered for last year's parameters are the MTV TV and Movie Awards and Teen Choice, while I decided to not count two Oscars. The logical reason would be that the Awards Season awards the best movies of the preceding year, in this case being 2017, and the two aforementioned award shows also included the movies from the active year which are normally beyond the Academy's submission criteria.
The television system, having more 'events', will have a much detailed system in that the system will calculate not only the current season but also the past two seasons as well, and much like the original WFC system only the scripted series will score points, meaning shows of the variety, reality, sketch, and documentary genre will not be considered for scoring. The longer calculation span and different system in the television environment also allows me to add a couple of TV-only 'events', including the Television Critic Association Awards and a couple of polling competitions and, this time, poll-based awards! The TCA Awards will work just like other award shows while for the polling competitions the classification will take a simpler approach in that it will award points for round finish rather than round and percentage finish in the bracket, but the catch is that it will only take just the best efforts of the series involved, not the characters, but at the moment I'm still thinking whether I should also include character rankings as well to the architecture. Finally, the poll-based awards which is actually a hybrid between an award show and a polling competition minus the gala. This will take a simple approach where every win, either a series win or an actor win, awards the same points, and the runner-up will also get points too, and finally the ones who simply made it in the final voting will get a point. However, for the final part there, I wasn't sure; what if the voting for the winners are in fact unknown due to one reason or another?
The actor's ranking is the third system that takes the calculation span of the television system (being 3 years) and the consideration of both movie-only and TV-only award shows and poll-based awards, making it the most in-depth and complete system. Since the actors can go from television to movies and vice versa with ease, the 'retirement' rule seen in the TV system will not apply, meaning this will be an open and lifetime race between actors and actresses for as long as they score roles in either a TV series or a movie. Unlike both movie and television systems however the wins in Lead, Supporting, and Guest/miscellaneous categories are tiered, with lead categories being the highest tier, depending on the awards show.
Finally, the eventual points awarded will be different per 'event': prestigious events like Oscars, Emmys, and Golden Globes have the most importance and reward the most coefficient points for each win, while less can be said with PCAs and Teen Choice, just below the fandom competitions and awards due to the how both award shows pick their winners. Detailed run-down of how the points for each 'event' is distributed can be seen in the "Points" tab of the spreadsheet, as well as the pending award shows you can see on the same tab, while the full calendar can be seen on the "Full Calendar" tab, detailing the award shows and polling competitions considered for the 2016-2018 calculation period, although it is still provisional. At the moment, I have over 25 award shows, 15 polling competitions, and perhaps 4-6 online awards throughout the mentioned period, and, since this is still provisional, you can give me suggestions on which award or competition that can be added on the system here in the comments below, as well as your suggestions on how the coefficient points should be given for the award shows based on importance.
With the new stage being set, it's time to see which movie will seize the upcoming season and see whether the critics' 2017 ranking is worth the award victories, which series still stand strong coming this season, and which actor still on top of the game! With the Golden Globes being the first award show to come in the awards season calendar, my prediction post will come next ASAP. In the meantime, you can start suggesting things in the comments if you have one! The first ranking update will be released after the 24th SAG AFTRA Awards.
~[R]