Bracing for an escalation
So the flotilla news is bad enough (summary for those of you who don't know: a bunch of ships headed for Gaza with aid supplies attempting to break the three year blockade was intercepted by Israel in international waters, with at least 10 and possibly 19 activists killed, and at least 60 injured). But it looks like it could get worse quickly.
The aid flotilla was organized by a Turkish humanitarian organization with a close relationship to the Turkish government, and most of the people on board (as well as most of the victims of violence) were Turkish. Turkey has called an emergency NATO meeting (tomorrow), is threatening reprisals against Israel, and is considering sending another aid mission with a naval escort. (Source: ibnlive.in.com/news/turkey-threatens-action-israel-on-alert/116743-2.html)
On the other side, an Israeli naval officer has stated that future interceptions will be more aggressive, and that vessels attempting to break the Gaza blockade will be treated as if they are "coming for war". (Source: www.jpost.com/Israel/Article.aspx)
I think, and hope, that both Israel (increasingly unpredictable and rash though they are) and Turkey will stop short of actual combat, recognizing the fact that such a confrontation could become a real war between real military powers, but the situation is already tense and even a confrontation between cautious naval forces can go south with little direct provocation. It seems Turkey's goal is to force the US to intervene to either end the blockade or to force Israel to allow more aid into Gaza, invoking NATO treaty obligations to defend any member state in case they are attacked.
But that's sort of a dangerous gamble, and a lot is at stake. The US response so far has been lukewarm in comparison to pretty much the rest of the world (which isn't a surprise; when was the last time the US offered anything beyond "regret" and apologetics in the face of a massacre committed by Israel?), and it's not obvious that we would honor NATO obligations over our support for Israel. Further, there have been some tensions since the Iraq war began between Turkey and the US, and Turkey's regional policies frequently conflict with US policies in the Middle East. Moreover, while the US has favored Turkey as a close ally in the past, aid to Turkey dropped significantly after our short-term goals there were met.
Turning off my emotions and concern for the human beings in the crossfire for a moment... I think a response of this kind by Turkey is understandable, and if their bet is right, has some potential to bring a positive change in the dynamics of the conflict. Even if it comes to blows, gods forbid, Turkey is not a small military power in the region, and could potentially defeat Israel in a naval conflict, forcing an end to the blockade and possibly a change in the US relationship with Israel. But the best case scenario if it goes that way would probably still be quite bloody and messy, and could also potentially escalate much further. A comment by faithhopetricks on sabotabby's post resonated with me: I wonder if people felt this way when they heard the news about Franz Ferdinand.
It's too early to predict where this will go, if anywhere, but I think it's a good idea to prepare for things to escalate before this blows over.
I know some of you know folks who were on those boats. I hope you are able to get in contact and get confirmation that all your friends and loved ones are alive and well. The violence that took place out there was a horrible tragedy, and salt in the wounds of an ongoing tragedy of a million and a half human souls imprisoned and impoverished in Gaza-people who've committed no crime other than to have the gall and tenacity to live in the wrong place and to refuse to just die or leave.
The aid flotilla was organized by a Turkish humanitarian organization with a close relationship to the Turkish government, and most of the people on board (as well as most of the victims of violence) were Turkish. Turkey has called an emergency NATO meeting (tomorrow), is threatening reprisals against Israel, and is considering sending another aid mission with a naval escort. (Source: ibnlive.in.com/news/turkey-threatens-action-israel-on-alert/116743-2.html)
On the other side, an Israeli naval officer has stated that future interceptions will be more aggressive, and that vessels attempting to break the Gaza blockade will be treated as if they are "coming for war". (Source: www.jpost.com/Israel/Article.aspx)
I think, and hope, that both Israel (increasingly unpredictable and rash though they are) and Turkey will stop short of actual combat, recognizing the fact that such a confrontation could become a real war between real military powers, but the situation is already tense and even a confrontation between cautious naval forces can go south with little direct provocation. It seems Turkey's goal is to force the US to intervene to either end the blockade or to force Israel to allow more aid into Gaza, invoking NATO treaty obligations to defend any member state in case they are attacked.
But that's sort of a dangerous gamble, and a lot is at stake. The US response so far has been lukewarm in comparison to pretty much the rest of the world (which isn't a surprise; when was the last time the US offered anything beyond "regret" and apologetics in the face of a massacre committed by Israel?), and it's not obvious that we would honor NATO obligations over our support for Israel. Further, there have been some tensions since the Iraq war began between Turkey and the US, and Turkey's regional policies frequently conflict with US policies in the Middle East. Moreover, while the US has favored Turkey as a close ally in the past, aid to Turkey dropped significantly after our short-term goals there were met.
Turning off my emotions and concern for the human beings in the crossfire for a moment... I think a response of this kind by Turkey is understandable, and if their bet is right, has some potential to bring a positive change in the dynamics of the conflict. Even if it comes to blows, gods forbid, Turkey is not a small military power in the region, and could potentially defeat Israel in a naval conflict, forcing an end to the blockade and possibly a change in the US relationship with Israel. But the best case scenario if it goes that way would probably still be quite bloody and messy, and could also potentially escalate much further. A comment by faithhopetricks on sabotabby's post resonated with me: I wonder if people felt this way when they heard the news about Franz Ferdinand.
It's too early to predict where this will go, if anywhere, but I think it's a good idea to prepare for things to escalate before this blows over.
I know some of you know folks who were on those boats. I hope you are able to get in contact and get confirmation that all your friends and loved ones are alive and well. The violence that took place out there was a horrible tragedy, and salt in the wounds of an ongoing tragedy of a million and a half human souls imprisoned and impoverished in Gaza-people who've committed no crime other than to have the gall and tenacity to live in the wrong place and to refuse to just die or leave.