A pig of a situation
Ben Goldacre on swine flu.
Thank you, Ben, for pointing out the truth: we don't know how this will pan out. We don't. We have epidemiological models and people studying the virus to find out what mutations allow human-to-human transmission, but we don't know the outcome.
According to Keiji Fukuda of the WHO there are three possible outcomes: 1)it disappears 2)it spreads, but most cases are mild (what we're seeing right now) and 3)suddenly we get many more deadly cases. Those three options pretty much cover all the bases.
Everyone seems to be in agreement that we don't know. As usual, the Daily Mail put a panic-inducing figure of 'millions could die' on the outbreak, which is, of course unhelpful, but frankly I'd be more worried if the Mail didn't do something like that.
Those experts I've interviewed can say how the UK's health service and government react to different WHO levels of pandemic alert, how a vaccine will be developed and how many doses of Tamiflu are stockpiled, but that's it.
They can, however, advise on how drugs like Tamiflu can be used to greatest effect. If people panic and take antiviral drugs as a preventive measure, when they don't really have influenza, the flu virus will evolve resistance, and the drugs won't work. This occurs when antivirals are prescribed to everyone who's come in contact with an infected person. This is where the difference between concern and panic is crucial, and where it's important that medical professionals pay attention.
Thank you, Ben, for pointing out the truth: we don't know how this will pan out. We don't. We have epidemiological models and people studying the virus to find out what mutations allow human-to-human transmission, but we don't know the outcome.
According to Keiji Fukuda of the WHO there are three possible outcomes: 1)it disappears 2)it spreads, but most cases are mild (what we're seeing right now) and 3)suddenly we get many more deadly cases. Those three options pretty much cover all the bases.
Everyone seems to be in agreement that we don't know. As usual, the Daily Mail put a panic-inducing figure of 'millions could die' on the outbreak, which is, of course unhelpful, but frankly I'd be more worried if the Mail didn't do something like that.
Those experts I've interviewed can say how the UK's health service and government react to different WHO levels of pandemic alert, how a vaccine will be developed and how many doses of Tamiflu are stockpiled, but that's it.
They can, however, advise on how drugs like Tamiflu can be used to greatest effect. If people panic and take antiviral drugs as a preventive measure, when they don't really have influenza, the flu virus will evolve resistance, and the drugs won't work. This occurs when antivirals are prescribed to everyone who's come in contact with an infected person. This is where the difference between concern and panic is crucial, and where it's important that medical professionals pay attention.