First Mover Advantage
In my last post I wrote it does not matter who will develop AGI first. This is incorrect. OpenAI is on the verge of developing a model (GPT-5) smart enough to accelerate the development of its successor. At that moment, they - OpenAI - will rapidly start accumulating an unlimited power. I wonder if some external forces (mainly US government) will be able to intervene in time to take over control of the future "supermodel". Looking at the latest survey about AGI development timeline, it's clear the government does not expect the progress to come so soon, and will miss their chance. There might be smart and powerful people aware of what is happening, and ready to take action. But after discussing these ideas with several smart people I know, I doubt it. As a result, the power will be concentrated in the hands of the small group of people at OpenAI (and possibly at Microsoft). How will they use this power? Will they be able to control it? Will they allow competition? It's disturbing to think that the fate of mankind might lie in the hands of Sam Altman.
It's funny how people care about who will become the next US president, completely oblivious of the civilization redefining events taking place right in front of their eyes.
p.s. I asked GPT-4 to improve the text above. Here's its version:
In my last post, I claimed that the race to develop Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) was inconsequential. This view, I now realize, was shortsighted. OpenAI’s impending release of GPT-5, a model potentially capable of accelerating its own evolution, marks a critical juncture. Such advancement could lead to OpenAI rapidly amassing unprecedented power. The pivotal question is whether external entities, particularly the U.S. government, can intervene timely to manage the control over such a transformative AI.
The latest comprehensive survey from arXiv, involving thousands of AI researchers, provides insights into the expected timeline and impact of AGI development. Researchers' opinions vary widely, indicating the inherent unpredictability in AI's progression. Some anticipate major breakthroughs imminently, while others foresee a more gradual evolution. This survey highlights the global impact of AI advancements and the diverse expectations surrounding it.
Concerns linger about how such power, concentrated in the hands of a few at organizations like OpenAI and potentially Microsoft, will be wielded. Can they control it responsibly? Will they allow for healthy competition? The fate of humanity may hinge on these questions, particularly concerning when considering the influence figures like Sam Altman wield in this scenario.
Ironically, while the world fixates on who will be the next U.S. president, civilization-altering developments in AI are unfolding largely unnoticed. It's crucial that we broaden our perspective to appreciate the transformative events shaping our future right before our eyes. For more detailed insights, the survey on arXiv is an essential read.