Queensland state election
Some thoughts on the amazing electoral rout of the ALP in the Queensland State election.
First, this is the second catastrophic result for the ALP at a State level, after the 2011 NSW disaster. It is beginning to look like a pattern.
Second, while it is tempting to say it is another case of the Labor blokes screwing up and putting a sheila in to carry the can a la Joan Kirner, Carmen Lawrence and Kristina Keneally, Anna Bligh was the first woman to be elected in her own right as Premier.
Third, Labor really has to get over its compulsion to campaign on the basis of personal attacks on the Coalition Leader (which, in this case, extended to Campbell Newman's in-laws). They did it in the 2008 Northern Territory, and almost lost government in an unexpected swing. They did it in the 2010 Victorian elections against Ted Baillieu, and did lose. (I don't consume a lot of news media, but I heard so many anti-Ted ads in the last week or so of the campaign that I decided that Labor was done, because it was such pathetic overkill.) They have done it again in Queensland and, given they are predicted to retain 8 seats losing 43(!!), we can safely say it did not help.
Yes, I get that the modern progressivist view is that they are the repositories of all morality and decency and anyone who disagrees with them is stupid, ignorant and malicious. I also get that, with the collapse of socialism, the lack of much ideological justification for such a self-righteous sense of status makes the latter more "naked" and so more febrile. But, newsflash, not everyone agrees. And that "not everyone" includes a solid majority of the actual voting public.
This is one of those matters where having your views hegemonic in academe, education and much of the media (certainly the ABC-Fairfax media) is actually not a help. Because it fosters a bubble of agreement which makes it oh-so-easy to think that everyone who disagrees with you is stupid, ignorant and malicious. Which must be really true of the opposing Leader, and if we just "expose" their axiomatic wickedness, people will, of course, support the Only Path of Truth and Righteousness.
Actually, you are much more likely to come across as a bunch of vicious prigs who have nothing to say to ordinary voters that they are likely to believe for a second.
The pragmatics say: it doesn't work, so stop doing it. Alas, their self-image is likely to keep driving them to it. One can already see the mindset working that if we just "expose" Abbott, no one will vote for him. Actually, the electorate already has a pretty strong picture of Tony Abbott and they almost let him turn the ALP Government into the first single-term Federal Government since Scullin. Which, given Scullin had the Great Depression and a split Party against him, while Australia sailed through the Great Recession and Global Financial Crisis, was an amazing electoral turn-up.
The trick with critiquing an aspiring PM or Premier is to encapsulate a concern voters already have in a pithy phrase and let it do its work while talking about issues that matter to them. You have to make the critique and the message work together. If the only message you can be seriously bothered with is "they're SO Nasty" you are both confessing you have nothing to say to voters about their concerns and coming across as the sort of folk you wouldn't want to have a drink with. (It is, of course, even worse if what you finger point about lots of the electorate doesn't care about or thinks is a positive.)
Oh, and, once again, we see how the Greens are so not the wave of the future. People were clearly really pissed off with the incumbents, but the Greens got little or none of the protest vote. In fact, their primary vote declined from 8.37% in 2009 to 7.38% so far in this one. They may be favoured of the inner-city wealthy (they have the richest voter base of all the Parties), much of academe and media but their message does not resonate much beyond that. Katter's Australia Party has done significantly better. But, then, no matter how misguided, the KAPistas are in favour of Australians having jobs rather than preaching virtuously about who has to lose theirs.
First, this is the second catastrophic result for the ALP at a State level, after the 2011 NSW disaster. It is beginning to look like a pattern.
Second, while it is tempting to say it is another case of the Labor blokes screwing up and putting a sheila in to carry the can a la Joan Kirner, Carmen Lawrence and Kristina Keneally, Anna Bligh was the first woman to be elected in her own right as Premier.
Third, Labor really has to get over its compulsion to campaign on the basis of personal attacks on the Coalition Leader (which, in this case, extended to Campbell Newman's in-laws). They did it in the 2008 Northern Territory, and almost lost government in an unexpected swing. They did it in the 2010 Victorian elections against Ted Baillieu, and did lose. (I don't consume a lot of news media, but I heard so many anti-Ted ads in the last week or so of the campaign that I decided that Labor was done, because it was such pathetic overkill.) They have done it again in Queensland and, given they are predicted to retain 8 seats losing 43(!!), we can safely say it did not help.
Yes, I get that the modern progressivist view is that they are the repositories of all morality and decency and anyone who disagrees with them is stupid, ignorant and malicious. I also get that, with the collapse of socialism, the lack of much ideological justification for such a self-righteous sense of status makes the latter more "naked" and so more febrile. But, newsflash, not everyone agrees. And that "not everyone" includes a solid majority of the actual voting public.
This is one of those matters where having your views hegemonic in academe, education and much of the media (certainly the ABC-Fairfax media) is actually not a help. Because it fosters a bubble of agreement which makes it oh-so-easy to think that everyone who disagrees with you is stupid, ignorant and malicious. Which must be really true of the opposing Leader, and if we just "expose" their axiomatic wickedness, people will, of course, support the Only Path of Truth and Righteousness.
Actually, you are much more likely to come across as a bunch of vicious prigs who have nothing to say to ordinary voters that they are likely to believe for a second.
The pragmatics say: it doesn't work, so stop doing it. Alas, their self-image is likely to keep driving them to it. One can already see the mindset working that if we just "expose" Abbott, no one will vote for him. Actually, the electorate already has a pretty strong picture of Tony Abbott and they almost let him turn the ALP Government into the first single-term Federal Government since Scullin. Which, given Scullin had the Great Depression and a split Party against him, while Australia sailed through the Great Recession and Global Financial Crisis, was an amazing electoral turn-up.
The trick with critiquing an aspiring PM or Premier is to encapsulate a concern voters already have in a pithy phrase and let it do its work while talking about issues that matter to them. You have to make the critique and the message work together. If the only message you can be seriously bothered with is "they're SO Nasty" you are both confessing you have nothing to say to voters about their concerns and coming across as the sort of folk you wouldn't want to have a drink with. (It is, of course, even worse if what you finger point about lots of the electorate doesn't care about or thinks is a positive.)
Oh, and, once again, we see how the Greens are so not the wave of the future. People were clearly really pissed off with the incumbents, but the Greens got little or none of the protest vote. In fact, their primary vote declined from 8.37% in 2009 to 7.38% so far in this one. They may be favoured of the inner-city wealthy (they have the richest voter base of all the Parties), much of academe and media but their message does not resonate much beyond that. Katter's Australia Party has done significantly better. But, then, no matter how misguided, the KAPistas are in favour of Australians having jobs rather than preaching virtuously about who has to lose theirs.