Election prediction
I have not been following the ins and outs of the federal election campaign down here in the land of Oz, but my prediction remains what it was once Julia got PM’d: Government re-elected but swing to the Coalition.
The last Government not to get re-elected the first time it went to the polls was Scullin’s in 1931, and it had the Great Depression and fell apart much worse than dumping Kev involves (the rough equivalent would be Martin Ferguson and several Labor MPs joining the Coalition, with Ferguson as new Opposition Leader). Every Government since has had a swing against it in its first term (presumably because some of the irritation with the previous Government has worn off and some people have found their hopes for the new Government not confirmed) but still got re-elected (presumably because expecting that many folk to decide they made a mistake last time is too big an ask).
That the Howard Government retained its reputation for basic competence right to the end has made the current government’s screwed-up-implementation travails worse, because of the unflattering comparison. But much of that was Rudd himself, and his dumping provides some separation. Tony is eminently electable, because people have a sense of him. But I doubt enough people are going to decide they essentially made a mistake in 07 to get the Coalition back in, particularly given that Kev’s departure can be seen as correcting any mistake involved.
The last Government not to get re-elected the first time it went to the polls was Scullin’s in 1931, and it had the Great Depression and fell apart much worse than dumping Kev involves (the rough equivalent would be Martin Ferguson and several Labor MPs joining the Coalition, with Ferguson as new Opposition Leader). Every Government since has had a swing against it in its first term (presumably because some of the irritation with the previous Government has worn off and some people have found their hopes for the new Government not confirmed) but still got re-elected (presumably because expecting that many folk to decide they made a mistake last time is too big an ask).
That the Howard Government retained its reputation for basic competence right to the end has made the current government’s screwed-up-implementation travails worse, because of the unflattering comparison. But much of that was Rudd himself, and his dumping provides some separation. Tony is eminently electable, because people have a sense of him. But I doubt enough people are going to decide they essentially made a mistake in 07 to get the Coalition back in, particularly given that Kev’s departure can be seen as correcting any mistake involved.