Constructing estimates
of world GDP over the last million years.
The occurrence
of economic “singularities” and predicting another one around the middle of this century. The author’s suggested next singularity I find deeply implausible in both type and alleged effects; it is far more likely to come from another breakthrough in the manipulation of
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You're assuming that "rising fuel prices" are a long enough term trend to affect development patterns. I disagree, because one very predictable response to such rising prices is substitution -- in particular, the substitution of other fuels for the power grid and of electric for gasoline-driven automobiles.
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Uranium has the potential to be far cheaper per unit of energy delivered than coal, oil or natural gas, but one problem is that many countries (including America) abandoned building new nuclear reactors at the point at which newer and more efficient reactors were being designed. Another problem is that irrational, culturally-based opposition has stalled reactor construction in ways that have greatly reduced the useful lifespans of even the ones that could be constructed.
Oil is also not the only petrochemical. There are coal and methane as petrochemical alternatives. The proven supply of coal is good for many centuries, and there are believed to be vast untapped coal fields under the Antarctic ice (and, if we used our proven reserves of coal for those centuries, said ice would unfortunately cease to be a factor in limiting ( ... )
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