I really get a kick out of this data, and I think you're giving a very well-thought-out analysis of the things we *can* know. And again, I think the science of it is much like economics - we can learn from trends and factors that we've seen in the past, but we can never know all the details and we can never predict what will happen, although we can make a few educated guesses.
It's a bit like a game of musical chairs. While people are running around rustling up votes, and their entry itself is garnering votes as readers get to them, you'll see a lot of sweeping upsets across the board. For the average contestatn, it's just a matter of who's on top when the poll closes.
if it's like last season, as the end gets closer, you will see a lot of weird patterns as the "that person is winning...I fucking hate her" votes emerge.
a 60 vote swing between 3 and 8 am put me out last season. (an "i fucking hate him" vote).
what's funny is that I suspect your circle has that sort of hatred for one contestant with a big ass friend list...yet they were agreeing with her biggest supporter when she quit this week because she didn't like the voting.
ah. she is talented. I've always thought that and was one of the people who said it last season as sentiment grew to get rid of her. but I don't know how she would do without the friend list...at least if she played the same way (no commenting on other people). she doesn't always seem human enough.
I didn't agree with her. I think she had a great entry and deserved more votes this time. Surprised she didn't get them. I wouldn't have quit over it, personally, but the contest isn't worth being unhappy over, so I respect her making that decision for herself.
I think she deserved to survive another week. That's all anyone ever deserves, in my opinion. And I don't think there's any survivor who didn't deserve it. But I was referring more to the very different positions on the front runner that you guys have.
I think there are a lot of people who were talking about people getting by on their friend list...but the difference is that some of them include RM in that group and see her as the bad guy, and some don't.
I'm gonna go out on a limb here, since everyone on idol can read this, including her, and her supporters have been lurking here thickly. I have nothign against her poll numbers (just a little mystified), but I, frankly, just don't like her writing style and never did. I remember the first week I thought to myself "I should read the top vote getters I bet they're fantastic!" and I remember finding her entry positively repellent. And that has almost without exception continued to be the case.
that's interesting. i heard someone say that last season. someone who then tried to take over the green room, had several public fights with gary, started a fake journal or 5, and then got banned. but who knows--he may still be around.
I think she writes really well and uniquely. The popularity aspect is the different. Where most of us HAVE TO make friends and interact, she brings her own friends. I don't know if there is really a wrong to that, though. It's a strategy that runs the risk of backfire, as far as winning goes. As people get eliminated, they push their own friend list to support a friend.
It's a bit like a game of musical chairs. While people are running around rustling up votes, and their entry itself is garnering votes as readers get to them, you'll see a lot of sweeping upsets across the board. For the average contestatn, it's just a matter of who's on top when the poll closes.
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a 60 vote swing between 3 and 8 am put me out last season. (an "i fucking hate him" vote).
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I'm lost.
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And maybe totally wrong.
I think there are a lot of people who were talking about people getting by on their friend list...but the difference is that some of them include RM in that group and see her as the bad guy, and some don't.
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I think she writes really well and uniquely. The popularity aspect is the different. Where most of us HAVE TO make friends and interact, she brings her own friends. I don't know if there is really a wrong to that, though. It's a strategy that runs the risk of backfire, as far as winning goes. As people get eliminated, they push their own friend list to support a friend.
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