election prediction results!
OK, let's see how I did with my election predictions:
ME:
Obama by 10+: VT, MA, RI, CT, NY, NJ, MD, DE, DC, IL, OR, HI
Obama by 5-10: MI, WI, WA, CA
Obama by 0-5: NH, PA, VA, OH, MN, IA, NM, NV
McCain by 0-5: NC, GA, FL, IN, MO, CO
McCain by 5-10: WV, AR, LA, KS, ND, MT
McCain by 10+: SC, KY, TN, AL, MS, AR, SD, NE, OK, TX, ID, WY, UT, AZ, AK
EV total: Obama 302-236 McCain
popular vote: Obama 52-46 McCain
ACTUAL:
Obama by 10+: VT, MA, RI, CT, NY, PA, NJ, MD, DE, DC, MI, WI, MN, IL, NM, NV, WA, OR, CA, HI
Obama by 5-10: NH, VA, IA, CO
Obama by 0-5: NC, FL, OH, IN, NE-2
McCain by 0-5: GA, MO, MT
McCain by 5-10: WV, SC, ND, SD, AZ
McCain by 10+: KY, TN, AL, MS, AR, LA, NE, KS, OK, TX, ID, WY, UT, AK
EV total: Obama 365-173 McCain
popular vote: Obama 53-46 McCain
Er. Not great. Guess I'll keep my day job. Almost nailed the popular vote, though.
Once Ohio was called for Obama at around 9:30, it was over. He only needed to flip 18 EV from 2004 to win, and Ohio is good for 20. Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina were icing on the cake. Throw in Iowa, Colorado (Colorado! by a lot!), New Mexico, and Nevada and holy shit! Obama even came within 8 points in Arizona.
The swing states, however, were close: VA, NC, OH, IN, MO, and even GA were all within 5 points. Only PA was out of McCain's reach. I guess the polls were right and he wasted time and money there when he should have been in Ohio and Florida. Not that it would have mattered. Obama's 10+ column adds up to 223 EV. The next column is 33 more for a total of 256, leaving him just 14 shy.
I was almost exactly right on the congressional races, though. I was right about three of four Senate races (Stevens looks to be winning) and nailed the Dems' gain in the House (+20) and Senate (57). So go me.
And that's about it for presidential politics for me. Cabinet posts and ambassadorships are too inside baseball for me.
The Georgia Senate race, though, is in a runoff. Saxby and his 527s are already on the air with nothing but negative ads, while Martin is up with a positive ad linking him to Obama. That should tell you everything you need to know about these two men. McCain has said he's coming to Georgia to help out Saxby. No word on Palin or Obama.
ME:
Obama by 10+: VT, MA, RI, CT, NY, NJ, MD, DE, DC, IL, OR, HI
Obama by 5-10: MI, WI, WA, CA
Obama by 0-5: NH, PA, VA, OH, MN, IA, NM, NV
McCain by 0-5: NC, GA, FL, IN, MO, CO
McCain by 5-10: WV, AR, LA, KS, ND, MT
McCain by 10+: SC, KY, TN, AL, MS, AR, SD, NE, OK, TX, ID, WY, UT, AZ, AK
EV total: Obama 302-236 McCain
popular vote: Obama 52-46 McCain
ACTUAL:
Obama by 10+: VT, MA, RI, CT, NY, PA, NJ, MD, DE, DC, MI, WI, MN, IL, NM, NV, WA, OR, CA, HI
Obama by 5-10: NH, VA, IA, CO
Obama by 0-5: NC, FL, OH, IN, NE-2
McCain by 0-5: GA, MO, MT
McCain by 5-10: WV, SC, ND, SD, AZ
McCain by 10+: KY, TN, AL, MS, AR, LA, NE, KS, OK, TX, ID, WY, UT, AK
EV total: Obama 365-173 McCain
popular vote: Obama 53-46 McCain
Er. Not great. Guess I'll keep my day job. Almost nailed the popular vote, though.
Once Ohio was called for Obama at around 9:30, it was over. He only needed to flip 18 EV from 2004 to win, and Ohio is good for 20. Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina were icing on the cake. Throw in Iowa, Colorado (Colorado! by a lot!), New Mexico, and Nevada and holy shit! Obama even came within 8 points in Arizona.
The swing states, however, were close: VA, NC, OH, IN, MO, and even GA were all within 5 points. Only PA was out of McCain's reach. I guess the polls were right and he wasted time and money there when he should have been in Ohio and Florida. Not that it would have mattered. Obama's 10+ column adds up to 223 EV. The next column is 33 more for a total of 256, leaving him just 14 shy.
I was almost exactly right on the congressional races, though. I was right about three of four Senate races (Stevens looks to be winning) and nailed the Dems' gain in the House (+20) and Senate (57). So go me.
And that's about it for presidential politics for me. Cabinet posts and ambassadorships are too inside baseball for me.
The Georgia Senate race, though, is in a runoff. Saxby and his 527s are already on the air with nothing but negative ads, while Martin is up with a positive ad linking him to Obama. That should tell you everything you need to know about these two men. McCain has said he's coming to Georgia to help out Saxby. No word on Palin or Obama.