polls narrow the gap?
An interesting Georgia poll came out today, one that somewhat confirms another, very biased poll that was out yesterday. It also raises some questions on the national level.
Yesterday's poll came from the Jim Martin (D) senate campaign and put incumbent Saxby Chambliss (R) up by just three points, 37-34 with 26% undecided. Most scoffed at the idea since Saxby has been up by double digits from the get-go, and even Martin's own poll shows him behind.
But today's poll, commissioned by a couple of TV stations, put the race within just two points, 46-44 with just 2% undecided. Has Martin really closed the gap by hunkering down in his HQ doing little more than making phone calls and airing just one ad?
The same two stations had a poll out a couple of weeks ago, also from SurveyUSA (the most reputable polling service in the history of polling! Right, kenboy?), that put John McCain over Barack Obama in Georgia by 16 points (and Saxby up 53-36). Today's poll puts them within eight points, nearly within the margin of error.
So. Questions:
1) Is this a nationwide trend? Are pollsters seeing the same thing in other states? I still don't think Obama wins Georgia, but if he makes it this close, McCain is in real trouble. Friends have pointed out to me that the McCain campaign will never spend any money or time in Georgia no matter how close the race is here. Let's face it: If McCain is on the verge of losing a state like Georgia, he's already lost states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. If McCain loses Georgia, all he'll win in November are Arizona, Alaska, and Utah and Mississippi.
2) Who is getting blamed? This poll doesn't really help. Is Saxby falling because he's a Republican or because he's an incumbent? Somebody needs to produce a poll on Democratic Representative Jim Marshall's race for GA-08. Marshall said he'd stake his seat on the plan that failed. He's facing (yet another) tough challenge from (yet another) well-funded Republican; if he's falling in the polls, it doesn't look good for any incumbent no matter what the party. Then again, maybe it'll just be those who are closely identified with the bailout plan, and anybody who kept his/her mouth shut won't get crushed.
3) Finally, how widespread is the trend? Is this just a Georgia thing? Or even just a Saxby thing? Saxby's pissed off a lot of people in the last couple of years by putting himself in the middle of some wedge issues (energy, immigration) just as he's up for reelection and after four years of rubber stamping whatever Bush and the GOP majority wanted. Are polls seeing the same thing at the presidential and congressional levels? What's the latest on Elizabeth Dole (R-NC), for example? I really have no idea.
So, kenboy, what's the story?
Yesterday's poll came from the Jim Martin (D) senate campaign and put incumbent Saxby Chambliss (R) up by just three points, 37-34 with 26% undecided. Most scoffed at the idea since Saxby has been up by double digits from the get-go, and even Martin's own poll shows him behind.
But today's poll, commissioned by a couple of TV stations, put the race within just two points, 46-44 with just 2% undecided. Has Martin really closed the gap by hunkering down in his HQ doing little more than making phone calls and airing just one ad?
The same two stations had a poll out a couple of weeks ago, also from SurveyUSA (the most reputable polling service in the history of polling! Right, kenboy?), that put John McCain over Barack Obama in Georgia by 16 points (and Saxby up 53-36). Today's poll puts them within eight points, nearly within the margin of error.
So. Questions:
1) Is this a nationwide trend? Are pollsters seeing the same thing in other states? I still don't think Obama wins Georgia, but if he makes it this close, McCain is in real trouble. Friends have pointed out to me that the McCain campaign will never spend any money or time in Georgia no matter how close the race is here. Let's face it: If McCain is on the verge of losing a state like Georgia, he's already lost states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. If McCain loses Georgia, all he'll win in November are Arizona, Alaska, and Utah and Mississippi.
2) Who is getting blamed? This poll doesn't really help. Is Saxby falling because he's a Republican or because he's an incumbent? Somebody needs to produce a poll on Democratic Representative Jim Marshall's race for GA-08. Marshall said he'd stake his seat on the plan that failed. He's facing (yet another) tough challenge from (yet another) well-funded Republican; if he's falling in the polls, it doesn't look good for any incumbent no matter what the party. Then again, maybe it'll just be those who are closely identified with the bailout plan, and anybody who kept his/her mouth shut won't get crushed.
3) Finally, how widespread is the trend? Is this just a Georgia thing? Or even just a Saxby thing? Saxby's pissed off a lot of people in the last couple of years by putting himself in the middle of some wedge issues (energy, immigration) just as he's up for reelection and after four years of rubber stamping whatever Bush and the GOP majority wanted. Are polls seeing the same thing at the presidential and congressional levels? What's the latest on Elizabeth Dole (R-NC), for example? I really have no idea.
So, kenboy, what's the story?