(Untitled)

[eldog]

Вынесу из частной дискуссии. Вопрос оппонента:

- За что мы воюем? Что плохого случится с конкретной семьёй, если Россия проиграет эту войну? Такого, что оправдывало бы риск смерти мобилизованного. "Вот в случае ВОВ на этот вопрос ответил бы любой ребенок"

(в кавычках дословная цитата, копи-паст).

Мой частичный ответ. Не про всё, тема большая, но

Comments

[lgorbovsky]

[ writing in English, because I don't have a Russian keyboard handy ]

The discussion about WW2 is a straw-man one. However, the original question "what would happen to an average Russian family, should Russia lose the war?" is also ill-defined. As it stands, the answer is (predictably) "the same as if Russia wins it".

Indeed, it's not clear what "losing the war" means, because no one explained how a victory should look like:
* Regime change in Ukraine? Not going to happen. It is backed by all Western powers now.
* Extermination of Ukranian population? Unthinkable. And even if Russia were savage enough to attempt it, it simply doesn't have capacity. Russian military is firmly 3nd grade (a'la Syria/Iraq), while thanks to NATO, Ukranian forces are becoming a 1st class military.
* Control over Donbass/Kherson/Zapor? Not going to cut it anymore. Donbass was de-facto under Russian control anyways...

Simply put, Russia can't win this war. The West has taken a course (voiced many US officials) on a "controlled destruction of Russia" (with strong "assistance" of US/UK). The key word is "controlled" because Putin is considered a "mad dog". It would be trivial to put him down (as Russian TLA's like KGB/FSB/GRU are clearly a joke at this point), if not for nukes. Nobody wants those ~6k warheads to fall into wrong hands in the ensuing chaos. The plan therefore seems to be to starve Russia, and either do a silent coup d'etat (putting a "right" person in charge), or simply exchange food and lifting of sanctions for nukes (like it was done when USSR collapsed), or both.

So, in the short and medium term, life of ordinary Russian families is going to be very very miserable, no matter what. To have some hope of an improvement in the long term, Russia must stop this war ASAP (and get rid of Putin as a result). If you have family in Russia, try to get them out sooner than later...