Что-то мне это будущее «не улыбается»
Прогнозы на будущее печатных книг от Digital-books: Есть опубликованный O’Reilly отчёт (The Global eBook Market: Current Conditions & Future Projections) - отчёт о рынке е-книг по состоянию на 2011 год. Доступен в формате PDF для покупки за $0,0 (нужна регистрация). Из БРИК есть Бразилия, где состояние рынка е-книг куда хуже, чем в России и Китай, где состояние рынка е-книг куда лучше.
(Sales per book) с данными от Сета Година:
This is the dark secret of the book industry, and one of the new truths of the music business.
Every year, total book sales have been relatively flat, growing just a bit.
But, the price of books has been rising, so that means that unit sales, the number of books sold, is flatter still.
Missing from this analysis: the number of books published each year is going up, and fast. And with ebooks taking off, the number of books published is about to go up by a factor of 100.
Think about it: anyone with an essay, a collection of thoughts, a tumblr that’s been running for a while… you can turn those into a nationally distributed ebook in about fifteen minutes.
And when everyone is rushing to increase supply along the long tail, it doesn’t matter if a publisher decides to hold back and publish fewer titles-the public doesn’t know who publishes what and doesn’t really care.
The end result, I predict, is that sales per book published are going to decrease as much as 20% next year. Sure, there are plenty of hits left to happen, and the short head of the bestseller list is going to be a good place to be for a while to come. But the midlist (which means most books) is going to see sales per book go down. And keep going down.
Good for people who like to discover interesting ideas. Bad for people who publish them the traditional way.
Digital-books откликнулся на выделенный фрагмент заголовком:
И ещё один прогноз - от Сета Година - средний тираж в след. году упадёт на 20%
и поясняющим текстом:
Он имеет в виду тираж «обычной книги», не бестселлера, но и не узкопрофильного издания.
(The Shatzkin Files: Will book publishers be able to maintain primacy as ebook publishers?) с прогнозом от Шацкина:
Here’s an assumption that is not documentable; it is my own speculation. I think we’re going to see a US market that is 80% digital for narrative text reading in the pretty near future: could be as soon as two years from now but almost certainly within five. We have talked about the cycle that leads to that on this blog before: more digital reading leads to a decline in print purchasing which further thins out the number of bookstores and drives more people to online book purchasing which further fuels digital reading. Repeat. Etcetera.
We’re already at the point where new narrative text units sold are well north of 25% digital (percent of publishers’ revenue is lower than that, of course) and we are still in a period that has lasted about five years (soon to end) where the penetration of digital has doubled or more annually. (I italicized that to emphasize that what I’m talking about doubling is the percentage of sales that are digital, not the absolute number of digital sales. Several people misinterpeted that when I made to it previously.)
Of course, penetration will slow down before it reaches 100%. I’d imagine we get to 80% in 2 to 5 years, then then to 90% in another couple of years, with the last 10% stretching out a long time. How long did it take after the invention of the car before the last person rode their horse to town?
Digital-books откликнулся на выделенный фрагмент заголовком:
Шацкин разразился прогнозом и поясняющим текстом:
Речь идёт о переходе в цифровой мир большинства повествовательных книг: в США 80% таких книг в ближайшие 2-5 лет будет цифровыми, ещё пару лет займёт рост до 90%. Все повествовательные книги, возможно, в цифру и не перейдут, но большим издателям, по мнению Майка Шацкина, задуматься пора уже сейчас. Резонно.
(Amazon Launches French-Language Ereader and Kindle Store) c таким вот текстом:
Amazon is launching a French-language Kindle, available Oct. 14, and an accompanying Kindle Store.
The E Ink ereader, which is the French-language equivalent of the recently announced, $79 Kindle, is available for pre-order at amazon.fr/kindle for 99 euros.
The French Kindle Store contains 825,000 books, of which more than 30,000 are written in French, and another 4,000 are free, French-language classics.
Popular French newspapers and magazines, including Le Monde, Les Echos and Le Figaro are available by single purchase or subscription.
Independent authors can now also sell their ebooks directly to the Amazon.fr Kindle Store through the Direct Publish Program.
Digital-books откликнулся на подчёркнутый текст заголовком:
Amazon запускает французский Kindle Store и пояснением:
Всего с 34 тысячами фрацузских книг (остальные 800 тыс не французские). Скромное начало. То есть в России ему нужно всего лишь купить ЛитРес.
В России Литрес, на всякий случай, уже к своим 50 тысяч наименований организовал доступ к 150 тысячам англоязычных наименований… Да, когда я первый раз вякнул про информационно-технологическую колонизацию России забугорной индустрией е-книг, я надеялся, что это хорошая «пугалка», до реализации которой ещё очень далеко. Сейчас я как-то резко скорректировал оценку «дистанции» и очень мне результат не нравится
Originally published at Планета е-книг. You can comment here or there.