One of the podcasts I listen to is
More or Less, a show on statistics. When they're not getting into the minutiae of British political pronouncements, they're interesting and entertaining. On a recent segment on life expectancy, they interviewed James Vaupel, the director of the
Max Planck Institiute for Demographic Research, who put medical advancement into a new light for me:"Life expectancy has been increasing in the past in countries doing well, like England, by about two-and-a-half years per decade... That's about three months per year, or six hours per day."
So only a fourfold increase in the amount of progress would render people functionally immortal, barring accidents, wars, and the discovery of new-and-different-ways-of-killing-people.