Polling numbers and "spin"
I've heard recently from multiple sources that Obama's "six point lead" over McCain has "evaporated" since the end of the RNC, or that it has dipped low enough that it's "within the margin of error".
Of course, the sources for this are generally conservative blogs or articles on conservative websites, but they do back their claims up with actual polls.
Unfortunately, they fail the rigorous journalism test: they're generally only using one to three polls to base their numbers on.
The Presidential Poll Map and the Presidential Poll chart at Pollster.com use aggregate data from all published polls to come up with a trend line for each candidate. Their methods are discussed on their FAQ page.
Looking at the the chart and the actual poll numbers listed below it, you can see that, while some polls show them in a dead heat and others show them so close that, yes, Obama's lead is within the margin of error, a sufficient number of other polls show that Obama still has a commanding lead. Thus, in the chart, you have the trend line for Obama going up, and the one for McCain going down. The current trend looks very much like the "six point lead" that people have been speaking about.
Here's a different way of looking at the same numbers: USA Today's Presidential Poll Tracker uses Pollster.com data, but obviously analyzes it a little differently. Although their methods for coming up with their numbers aren't as well explained, if you look at the trend lines in their chart, Obama and McCain were in nearly a dead heat in January, but Obama has steadily increased his lead over McCain over the intervening months, so that as of today his lead looks to be between four and five points.
Either way you look at it, it seems that Obama's lead is growing. Whether or not this will continue is, of course, a matter of debate (yes, pun intended)...
Of course, the sources for this are generally conservative blogs or articles on conservative websites, but they do back their claims up with actual polls.
Unfortunately, they fail the rigorous journalism test: they're generally only using one to three polls to base their numbers on.
The Presidential Poll Map and the Presidential Poll chart at Pollster.com use aggregate data from all published polls to come up with a trend line for each candidate. Their methods are discussed on their FAQ page.
Looking at the the chart and the actual poll numbers listed below it, you can see that, while some polls show them in a dead heat and others show them so close that, yes, Obama's lead is within the margin of error, a sufficient number of other polls show that Obama still has a commanding lead. Thus, in the chart, you have the trend line for Obama going up, and the one for McCain going down. The current trend looks very much like the "six point lead" that people have been speaking about.
Here's a different way of looking at the same numbers: USA Today's Presidential Poll Tracker uses Pollster.com data, but obviously analyzes it a little differently. Although their methods for coming up with their numbers aren't as well explained, if you look at the trend lines in their chart, Obama and McCain were in nearly a dead heat in January, but Obama has steadily increased his lead over McCain over the intervening months, so that as of today his lead looks to be between four and five points.
Either way you look at it, it seems that Obama's lead is growing. Whether or not this will continue is, of course, a matter of debate (yes, pun intended)...