Super Tuesday > Super Bowl
Hard to believe this was 5 years ago: http://artvandelay.tvheaven.com/punxs.html
Now it's time for my full, award winning, in depth, Super Tuesday anal-is.
Here are the Democrats' Primaries/Caucuses:
Alabama Open primary
Alaska Caucus
Arizona Closed primary
Arkansas Open primary
California Open primary
Colorado Caucus
Connecticut Closed primary
Delaware Closed primary
Democrats Abroad Internet primary
Georgia Open primary
Idaho Caucus
Illinois Open primary
Kansas Caucus
Massachusetts Open primary
Minnesota Caucus
Missouri Open primary
New Jersey Open primary
New Mexico Caucus
New York Closed primary
North Dakota Caucus
Oklahoma Closed primary
Tennessee Open primary
Utah Closed primary
An Open primary means anyone can pick whatever ballot they want. A closed Primary means only a Republican can vote for a Republican and the same for the Dems. Independents can't vote.
Obama should easily win Illinois. Hillary will most likely win New York. She could win Arkansas, which one of her 9 home states. haha.
According to the polls right now, Obama is ahead in Illinois, Georgia, slightly ahead in Colorado, and tied in Connecticut. I think Edwards dropping out will help Obama. And I heard he is raising in the national polls. He may do well in some southern states, like Tennessee and Alabama. Massachusetts could be a battle because Obama has the endorsement from both John Kerry and Ted or Ed or whatever the hell his name is Kennedy. And he got the endorsment from Kansas governor, Kathleen Sebelius, who gave the Democratic response after the State of the Union Address on Monday. Perhaps that can help him in Kansas? Sebelius was apparently on the short list to be Kerry's running mate in 2004. She could be a good VP candidate for Obama, maybe help turn some of those midwest state around.
Also, all of the primaries for the Dems are Proportional, so it doesn't necessarily matter if you win, but it depends on how many votes you get. I think that happened with one of the states Hillary won, Obama got enough votes that they were awarded the same amount of delegates. This could be good for Obama in the state like California, which has a huge amount of delegates, but if he does well enough, Hillary won't get the whole thing. If both candidates do well on Super Tuesday, which seems likely, the race will go on. Also about California, it's an open primary so independents can vote, and they will probably favor Obama.
Update: Obama is very close in the polls now in Delaware and Missouri, states he's been campaigning in this past week. And very close in Alabama. He and Hillary are apparently in a dead heat in California! This is going to be a nail-biter.
Let's look ahead, for the Dems:
February 9th:
Louisiana
Nebraska
Washington
February 10th:
Maine
February 12th:
Washington DC
Maryland
Virginia
February 19th:
Wisconsin
Hawaii
It's almost impossible to predict who will win these contests at this point. A lot will change after Super Tuesday. But the fun part is they will most likely matter and be important.
Now for the Republicans. Here are the Super Tuesday contests:
Alabama primary, open
Alaska caucus, closed
Arizona
Arkansas primary, open
California primary, closed
Colorado caucus, closed
Connecticut primary, closed
Delaware primary, closed
Georgia primary, modified open
Illinois presidential preference primary+delegate election, open
Massachusetts primary, modified open
Minnesota caucus, open
Missouri primary, open
Montana invited caucus
New Jersey primary, modified open
New York primary, closed
North Dakota caucus, closed
Oklahoma primary, closed
Tennessee primary, open
Utah primary, modified open
West Virginia convention, modified open
McCain Should easily win Arizona. And if theory, Romney should be able to win Massachusetts, and Huckabee Arkansas. Huckabee could win some of the other southern states, like Tennessee, Alabama and Georgia. But I think that will be it. Huckabee is probably the next candidate to drop out, unless he wins a few more states on Super Tuesday. He'll probably come out of Super Tuesday doing ok, but McCain and Romney will have pulled farther ahead.
McCain is ahead in California now and a few other states. For now, he is the front runner. But a lot of Republicans and conservatives hate him. Can he do well enough to keep going? Romney should surely win Utah, with it's huge Mormon population. He could maybe win a few more states. I think there will be a 3 way split, though McCain and Romney doing better than Huckabee. I'm sure if McCain wins at least California and a few other states, he will keep going. And unless Romney gets totally crushed, losing like 20 states, he will keep going on, because he can keep spending his own money.
February 9th
Washington (Caucus)
Kansas
Louisiana
February 12th
Washington DC
Maryland
Virgina
February 19th
Washington (primary)
Wisconsin
Now it's time for my full, award winning, in depth, Super Tuesday anal-is.
Here are the Democrats' Primaries/Caucuses:
Alabama Open primary
Alaska Caucus
Arizona Closed primary
Arkansas Open primary
California Open primary
Colorado Caucus
Connecticut Closed primary
Delaware Closed primary
Democrats Abroad Internet primary
Georgia Open primary
Idaho Caucus
Illinois Open primary
Kansas Caucus
Massachusetts Open primary
Minnesota Caucus
Missouri Open primary
New Jersey Open primary
New Mexico Caucus
New York Closed primary
North Dakota Caucus
Oklahoma Closed primary
Tennessee Open primary
Utah Closed primary
An Open primary means anyone can pick whatever ballot they want. A closed Primary means only a Republican can vote for a Republican and the same for the Dems. Independents can't vote.
Obama should easily win Illinois. Hillary will most likely win New York. She could win Arkansas, which one of her 9 home states. haha.
According to the polls right now, Obama is ahead in Illinois, Georgia, slightly ahead in Colorado, and tied in Connecticut. I think Edwards dropping out will help Obama. And I heard he is raising in the national polls. He may do well in some southern states, like Tennessee and Alabama. Massachusetts could be a battle because Obama has the endorsement from both John Kerry and Ted or Ed or whatever the hell his name is Kennedy. And he got the endorsment from Kansas governor, Kathleen Sebelius, who gave the Democratic response after the State of the Union Address on Monday. Perhaps that can help him in Kansas? Sebelius was apparently on the short list to be Kerry's running mate in 2004. She could be a good VP candidate for Obama, maybe help turn some of those midwest state around.
Also, all of the primaries for the Dems are Proportional, so it doesn't necessarily matter if you win, but it depends on how many votes you get. I think that happened with one of the states Hillary won, Obama got enough votes that they were awarded the same amount of delegates. This could be good for Obama in the state like California, which has a huge amount of delegates, but if he does well enough, Hillary won't get the whole thing. If both candidates do well on Super Tuesday, which seems likely, the race will go on. Also about California, it's an open primary so independents can vote, and they will probably favor Obama.
Update: Obama is very close in the polls now in Delaware and Missouri, states he's been campaigning in this past week. And very close in Alabama. He and Hillary are apparently in a dead heat in California! This is going to be a nail-biter.
Let's look ahead, for the Dems:
February 9th:
Louisiana
Nebraska
Washington
February 10th:
Maine
February 12th:
Washington DC
Maryland
Virginia
February 19th:
Wisconsin
Hawaii
It's almost impossible to predict who will win these contests at this point. A lot will change after Super Tuesday. But the fun part is they will most likely matter and be important.
Now for the Republicans. Here are the Super Tuesday contests:
Alabama primary, open
Alaska caucus, closed
Arizona
Arkansas primary, open
California primary, closed
Colorado caucus, closed
Connecticut primary, closed
Delaware primary, closed
Georgia primary, modified open
Illinois presidential preference primary+delegate election, open
Massachusetts primary, modified open
Minnesota caucus, open
Missouri primary, open
Montana invited caucus
New Jersey primary, modified open
New York primary, closed
North Dakota caucus, closed
Oklahoma primary, closed
Tennessee primary, open
Utah primary, modified open
West Virginia convention, modified open
McCain Should easily win Arizona. And if theory, Romney should be able to win Massachusetts, and Huckabee Arkansas. Huckabee could win some of the other southern states, like Tennessee, Alabama and Georgia. But I think that will be it. Huckabee is probably the next candidate to drop out, unless he wins a few more states on Super Tuesday. He'll probably come out of Super Tuesday doing ok, but McCain and Romney will have pulled farther ahead.
McCain is ahead in California now and a few other states. For now, he is the front runner. But a lot of Republicans and conservatives hate him. Can he do well enough to keep going? Romney should surely win Utah, with it's huge Mormon population. He could maybe win a few more states. I think there will be a 3 way split, though McCain and Romney doing better than Huckabee. I'm sure if McCain wins at least California and a few other states, he will keep going. And unless Romney gets totally crushed, losing like 20 states, he will keep going on, because he can keep spending his own money.
February 9th
Washington (Caucus)
Kansas
Louisiana
February 12th
Washington DC
Maryland
Virgina
February 19th
Washington (primary)
Wisconsin