It's frightening how alike each party's candidates are. It's like they all have the same platform, and you just have to decide which one is the least likely to fuck things up (Guiliani scares the shit out of me)
There's been a lot of great articles coming out lately, unfortunately, normal people don't read. So in the end Giuliani could win just b/c of everyone knows him as "that nice man from 9/11" and Hilary could win just b/c she was married to Bill. Name recognition is typically the reason candidates get early support in national polling. But it seems like that may be having a more lasting effect now. We're supposed to be in the information age, but it's like there is so much news streaming constantly, that it is impossible to break through all of the chatter with anything real. So if there is some big event that propels you into national regonition, its almost as if YOU HAVE TO run for the presidency, b/c you'd be crazy not to.
Obama definitely got a lot of attention from the press during the 2004 election. So the top three candidates are a former first lady, former vp candidate, and another guy who was lucky to get attention once. For the Republicans its the 9/11 mayor guy, the guy who was almost the republican presidential nominee (McCain), the law and order tough guy, and then the other guy who managed to get attention: Mitt Romney. And a big part of why people know him is because he spent so much of his own money muscling his way in.
Huckabee does have a chance in Iowa though, which coud change everything. As flawed as the system is, you have to see the value of the Iowa caucus. It's more important now than ever. Even though a lot of it is still controlled by money, in Iowa the candidates get more attention from everyday people. They get their ideas out there, and new candidates have a chance. If Edwards hadn't scored big in Iowa last year, he would have faded away and would not have been Kerry's vp pick. But same thing for Kerry, who was way behind then won Iowa, then got the nomination.
I'm worried about the Obama campaign, but there strategy is probably their best chance. Right now Hilary's expectations are so high that she pretty much has to win Iowa. Even though she leads the polls in every single state right now, that could disappear over night if she comes in third or even second. Remember that at this point in the last election, Lieberman was in the lead nationally, and Dean was supposed to win Iowa. Now, Lieberman has pretty much been kicked out of the party.
So my hope is that in three years, Hilary will be, I don't know, dead. That would be great.
Did you know that the Iowa caucus has been moved to January 3rd? That's crazy. There were even rumors about it getting moved to December. The primary season for 2012 will be nuts. It'll probably be all 50 states on January 2nd (your birthday)
All Obama needs to do is beat Hillary. The Republicans are all too busy deciding which one of them is the biggest douche bag. I still think Obama can pull it off. A couple weeks ago he manged to raise a million dollars in like 2 or 3 days. That's impressive. I've heard the argument that if Hillary wins it'll be like we have 2 presidents, cause Bill will probably spend a lot of time patching up our relationships with other countries. While I like the idea of Clinton being an ambassador, this is still a pretty horrible idea.
There's been a lot of great articles coming out lately, unfortunately, normal people don't read. So in the end Giuliani could win just b/c of everyone knows him as "that nice man from 9/11" and Hilary could win just b/c she was married to Bill. Name recognition is typically the reason candidates get early support in national polling. But it seems like that may be having a more lasting effect now. We're supposed to be in the information age, but it's like there is so much news streaming constantly, that it is impossible to break through all of the chatter with anything real. So if there is some big event that propels you into national regonition, its almost as if YOU HAVE TO run for the presidency, b/c you'd be crazy not to.
Obama definitely got a lot of attention from the press during the 2004 election. So the top three candidates are a former first lady, former vp candidate, and another guy who was lucky to get attention once. For the Republicans its the 9/11 mayor guy, the guy who was almost the republican presidential nominee (McCain), the law and order tough guy, and then the other guy who managed to get attention: Mitt Romney. And a big part of why people know him is because he spent so much of his own money muscling his way in.
Huckabee does have a chance in Iowa though, which coud change everything. As flawed as the system is, you have to see the value of the Iowa caucus. It's more important now than ever. Even though a lot of it is still controlled by money, in Iowa the candidates get more attention from everyday people. They get their ideas out there, and new candidates have a chance. If Edwards hadn't scored big in Iowa last year, he would have faded away and would not have been Kerry's vp pick. But same thing for Kerry, who was way behind then won Iowa, then got the nomination.
I'm worried about the Obama campaign, but there strategy is probably their best chance. Right now Hilary's expectations are so high that she pretty much has to win Iowa. Even though she leads the polls in every single state right now, that could disappear over night if she comes in third or even second. Remember that at this point in the last election, Lieberman was in the lead nationally, and Dean was supposed to win Iowa. Now, Lieberman has pretty much been kicked out of the party.
So my hope is that in three years, Hilary will be, I don't know, dead. That would be great.
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All Obama needs to do is beat Hillary. The Republicans are all too busy deciding which one of them is the biggest douche bag. I still think Obama can pull it off. A couple weeks ago he manged to raise a million dollars in like 2 or 3 days. That's impressive. I've heard the argument that if Hillary wins it'll be like we have 2 presidents, cause Bill will probably spend a lot of time patching up our relationships with other countries. While I like the idea of Clinton being an ambassador, this is still a pretty horrible idea.
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