The next fifty years -- going up?
Just over fifty years ago (on 4th October 1957), a man-made or artificial object went into orbit around the Earth for the first time.
It seems that the USSR initially did not consider it too important; the announcement of the launch apparently was put in the back pages of the Communist newspapers of the time. Western Europe and North America took it much more seriously, however. In many ways, the concept of space “consciousness” dates from that period, ranging from the well-publicized “space race” between the USA and the USSR to ridiculous references such as the province of Manitoba’s highway campaign to “put your trash into Orbit” (spherical rural roadside trash bins; the cute part was the final warning sign that said simply “Orbit [in] 10 seconds”).
What seems sad is that we have not come very far at all since then. Humans have been as far as the Moon, and space probes (really robots) have traveled over most of the solar system (a probe is even on its way to Pluto and the Kuiper Belt asteroids). However, the only conventional settlement of humans beyond the atmosphere is the International Space Station (ISS). The USA’s government is talking about sending humans back to the Moon (and possibly on to Mars), but there is no guarantee that politics or an economic crisis will not sink that scheme. Will there be any practical replacement for the last US Space Shuttles when they are retired in 2010? NASA’s next scheme, named Orion, may not be ready for many years after that. As for the USSR, while most people are happy to see it gone, I doubt the successor state of Russia will bother going back into space if and when the ISS is finally abandoned.
Like filker Diana Gallagher, I feel disappointed that we humans will not go “dancing on the Moon” anytime soon. The fact is that, given the current human level of commitment, real settlement of space may not happen before most of the people interested in doing so - in particular, the so-called Baby Boomers as well as the Generation Xers - have shuffled off this mortal coil. I certainly do not see anyone from more recent generation(s) being interested in developing or supporting development of the High Frontier; their interests seem to be confined to the latest show on TV or the fastest PDA.
What do others think? As always, this well-perched inquirer would like to know.