Press Release Volume & Significance Theory
Hello cyberspace . . . I hope you get as geeked out by the democratic process as I do!
In a bored moment (or two) today I began thinking about the nature of minority governments. My boredom was quickly replaced when my blackberry began vibrating wildly. In the short span of 5 minutes, no less than 10 federal press releases swamped my inbox. A short time later, another half dozen came flying in. By the end of the day there were 30 press released in my inbox.
This refreshed a theory I developed in the dying days of Paul Martin's minority government: Like Colombo can spot a murderer through body language, a minority government's tell is it's press releases . . .
I call my theory the Press Release Volume & Significance Theory (PRV&ST)
Volume
Despite publicly indicating that they don't want the House to fall & that the last thing they want is an election, the volume of Press Releases indicates otherwise.
Proof: I subscribe to federal government Press Releases via Canada Newswire & Marketwire (nerdy, I know). In a typical week under a majority government, one might see 2-3 Releases. Under a minority government, this rises to 4-5/week. However, under a minority government bracing itself for an election, the number increases to 40-50 Releases/DAY . . .
Significance
Another indicator is the significance of the Releases.
Proof: Under a majority, Press Releases only come out for high-value (multi-million dollar) or high-profile (trade missions, response to a international leader's death, etc) items. Under a minority, press releases are issued for smaller items -- a $500,000 routine transfer of Gas Tax revenue to a medium sized municipality. Under a minority bracing for an election, items as small as $30,000 transfers of Gas Tax revenues to rural municipalities warrant a Release.
Example:
One of the 16 Press Releases I've received between 7:02 & 11:42am this morning:
"/R E P E A T -- Infrastructure Canada - Media Advisory/
ELMIRA, ON, Feb. 18 /CNW Telbec/ - Harold Albrecht, Member of Parliament
for Kitchener-Conestoga, on behalf of the Honourable Lawrence Cannon, Minister
of Transport, Infrastructure and Communities, and William L. Strauss, Mayor of
Woolwich, will make an important announcement on infrastructure.
<<
Date: February 19, 2008
Time: 11:30 a.m.
Location: Council Chambers
69 Arthur Street
Elmira, Ontario"
That's right -- they are REPEATING a funding announcement for an event in Elmira, featuring both the local MP & the Mayor of . . . . . . the township of Woolwich!!
Other notable announcements will take place today in the following centres: Boucherville, Drummondville, Saint-Maxime-du-Mont-Louis, LaSalle, St. Catharines, La Pocatiere, Almonte, Shawinigan, Saint-Félix-de-Valois, & Sheenboro.
I am also working on several interesting corollaries . . . such as the Press-Release to Vote-Density Corollary.
Tomorrow's topic:
The mnf's impact on the PRV&ST
In a bored moment (or two) today I began thinking about the nature of minority governments. My boredom was quickly replaced when my blackberry began vibrating wildly. In the short span of 5 minutes, no less than 10 federal press releases swamped my inbox. A short time later, another half dozen came flying in. By the end of the day there were 30 press released in my inbox.
This refreshed a theory I developed in the dying days of Paul Martin's minority government: Like Colombo can spot a murderer through body language, a minority government's tell is it's press releases . . .
I call my theory the Press Release Volume & Significance Theory (PRV&ST)
Volume
Despite publicly indicating that they don't want the House to fall & that the last thing they want is an election, the volume of Press Releases indicates otherwise.
Proof: I subscribe to federal government Press Releases via Canada Newswire & Marketwire (nerdy, I know). In a typical week under a majority government, one might see 2-3 Releases. Under a minority government, this rises to 4-5/week. However, under a minority government bracing itself for an election, the number increases to 40-50 Releases/DAY . . .
Significance
Another indicator is the significance of the Releases.
Proof: Under a majority, Press Releases only come out for high-value (multi-million dollar) or high-profile (trade missions, response to a international leader's death, etc) items. Under a minority, press releases are issued for smaller items -- a $500,000 routine transfer of Gas Tax revenue to a medium sized municipality. Under a minority bracing for an election, items as small as $30,000 transfers of Gas Tax revenues to rural municipalities warrant a Release.
Example:
One of the 16 Press Releases I've received between 7:02 & 11:42am this morning:
"/R E P E A T -- Infrastructure Canada - Media Advisory/
ELMIRA, ON, Feb. 18 /CNW Telbec/ - Harold Albrecht, Member of Parliament
for Kitchener-Conestoga, on behalf of the Honourable Lawrence Cannon, Minister
of Transport, Infrastructure and Communities, and William L. Strauss, Mayor of
Woolwich, will make an important announcement on infrastructure.
<<
Date: February 19, 2008
Time: 11:30 a.m.
Location: Council Chambers
69 Arthur Street
Elmira, Ontario"
That's right -- they are REPEATING a funding announcement for an event in Elmira, featuring both the local MP & the Mayor of . . . . . . the township of Woolwich!!
Other notable announcements will take place today in the following centres: Boucherville, Drummondville, Saint-Maxime-du-Mont-Louis, LaSalle, St. Catharines, La Pocatiere, Almonte, Shawinigan, Saint-Félix-de-Valois, & Sheenboro.
I am also working on several interesting corollaries . . . such as the Press-Release to Vote-Density Corollary.
Tomorrow's topic:
The mnf's impact on the PRV&ST