The Body Count
I don't have anything particularly profound to say about the characters JKR has recently moved back and forth across the "will/won't survive" line for Book VII. This is because all I really think we can say is that the characters in question are secondary, along the lines of Neville, Luna, Weasleys-older-than-Ron, Hagrid, Lupin, Tonks, and maybe McGonagall-- important enough that we'll care about what happens to them, but not so important that their destiny has to have been long since fixed in JKR's mind (which I take to be the case with Harry, Ginny, Ron, Hermione, Voldemort, and probably Snape). I can't see anything that would make any of the secondary characters drastically more likely than the others to have been newly sentenced or reprieved.
I was, however, interested to see both peachespig's recent thread on "which deaths do we care about," as well as the USA Today forecasts by melissa_tlc and Emerson as to the likelihoods of various character deaths. My own oddsmaking runs as follows:
Harry: 2% chance of death (Emerson says 30%, Melissa 20%)
From my perspective, it looks like M&E are being way pessimistic here ("we pray she's not that cruel," says Melissa). I agree that it's a tangible possibility that we could lose Harry, but everything I see in the way JKR is writing the series tells me that she's not writing a tragedy. She wants to scare us, and she wants the story to make sense in a realistic way. But still-- the story is most itself when things are turning out right on the central points (hence OotP being the most uncharacteristic of all the HP books), and I can't see it not ending basically happily (though it will certainly have some bittersweetness to it). And furthermore... everytime JKR talks about whether Harry will die, it comes across like she has to keep it an open question for the sake of the suspense, but she doesn't really mean for us to expect to lose him.
Ginny: 3%
Not much more likely than Harry. Her fate is too closely tied to his; and the beginnings of their romance in HBP would have a hard time making sense if she were to end up dead.
Ron: 5% (Emerson 10%, Melissa 12%)
Hermione: 6% (Emerson 10%, Melissa 6%)
I can more easily see Ron and/or Hermione dying than Harry and/or Ginny, but not by much. As with H/G, their storyline seems pretty definitely to point to a Future.
Arthur, Molly, Fred, George, Lupin, Tonks, Hagrid, McGonagall, Neville, Luna: 35% each (Emerson says 0% for McGonagall, Melissa 40%)
Here the question is mostly "how many of them will die?" By listing 10 of them and giving them 35% each, I'm implicitly expecting to lose about three or four of them. I don't see too much to distinguish one from the others; they're all in the "important, but secondary" category. None of them would destroy the story by dying. Lupin and Tonks might be a little bit more likely to live, to fulfill their end-of-HBP romance; but I don't see that as being nearly as certain as the much more central H/G. (So maybe drop them to 25% or so.) As I remarked on peachespig's thread, I see Molly as the one from this group whose loss would hurt Harry the most; but I don't see her as being more likely than the others to survive.
In particular, I must respectfully disagre with Emerson's "wouldn't accomplish anything" rationale for 0% on Minerva. Cedric was far less significant to the plot than the new Headmistress, and his death played a definite role in the story. And furthermore, part of JKR's point about Voldemort is that he will kill even if it doesn't mean anything. Lots of people are going to end up dead in this book, and not all of them will be characters to whom we're attached. (Though, sadly, some will.)
Percy: 45%
Percy, on the other hand, is certainly distinct from the mass of good, supporting characters. Will he have the chance to reconcile with his family? I hope so; but then again, I hoped so with Sirius and Snape before OotP too. I could quite easily see him dying, either unreconciled or (more hopefully) repentant at the last minute, leaving Fred, George, and Ginny to come to terms with his memory after he's gone.
Snape: 60% (Emerson says 30%, Melissa 50%)
Flip a coin, more or less-- I think he's slightly more likely to die than live, but it could really go either way. JKR certainly has some plot twist remaining with him, and I think he'll turn away from Voldemort before the end, perhaps providing the key for Harry's final victory. But I don't, at this point, expect him to live to see the post-Voldemort world.
(What I'd really like to know is: Is his life-debt to James still significant? I can't see his counteracting Quirrell's curse in PS/SS as having ended it. But there's been no mention of it since.)
Draco: 75%
I expect Draco to be dead early in Book 7. I can't see Voldemort tolerating a Death Eater who can't pull the trigger. But I expect his death will serve a purpose-- Harry knows that Draco was turning from the Dark Side when the Death Eaters barged in, and (though Ron will have a hard time seeing it) Draco will live alongside Cedric in Harry's memory, as a reminder of how cruel Voldemort is.
This could go either way, of course; but I think his death is significantly more likely than his survival.
Pettigrew: 85%
Can't see him living. The only question is how he'll repay the debt to Harry.
Voldemort: 99.9% (E&M both round it off to 100%)
Techically it's possible that he could live; but does anyone seriously expect it?
Alternative predictions from readers welcome....
I was, however, interested to see both peachespig's recent thread on "which deaths do we care about," as well as the USA Today forecasts by melissa_tlc and Emerson as to the likelihoods of various character deaths. My own oddsmaking runs as follows:
Harry: 2% chance of death (Emerson says 30%, Melissa 20%)
From my perspective, it looks like M&E are being way pessimistic here ("we pray she's not that cruel," says Melissa). I agree that it's a tangible possibility that we could lose Harry, but everything I see in the way JKR is writing the series tells me that she's not writing a tragedy. She wants to scare us, and she wants the story to make sense in a realistic way. But still-- the story is most itself when things are turning out right on the central points (hence OotP being the most uncharacteristic of all the HP books), and I can't see it not ending basically happily (though it will certainly have some bittersweetness to it). And furthermore... everytime JKR talks about whether Harry will die, it comes across like she has to keep it an open question for the sake of the suspense, but she doesn't really mean for us to expect to lose him.
Ginny: 3%
Not much more likely than Harry. Her fate is too closely tied to his; and the beginnings of their romance in HBP would have a hard time making sense if she were to end up dead.
Ron: 5% (Emerson 10%, Melissa 12%)
Hermione: 6% (Emerson 10%, Melissa 6%)
I can more easily see Ron and/or Hermione dying than Harry and/or Ginny, but not by much. As with H/G, their storyline seems pretty definitely to point to a Future.
Arthur, Molly, Fred, George, Lupin, Tonks, Hagrid, McGonagall, Neville, Luna: 35% each (Emerson says 0% for McGonagall, Melissa 40%)
Here the question is mostly "how many of them will die?" By listing 10 of them and giving them 35% each, I'm implicitly expecting to lose about three or four of them. I don't see too much to distinguish one from the others; they're all in the "important, but secondary" category. None of them would destroy the story by dying. Lupin and Tonks might be a little bit more likely to live, to fulfill their end-of-HBP romance; but I don't see that as being nearly as certain as the much more central H/G. (So maybe drop them to 25% or so.) As I remarked on peachespig's thread, I see Molly as the one from this group whose loss would hurt Harry the most; but I don't see her as being more likely than the others to survive.
In particular, I must respectfully disagre with Emerson's "wouldn't accomplish anything" rationale for 0% on Minerva. Cedric was far less significant to the plot than the new Headmistress, and his death played a definite role in the story. And furthermore, part of JKR's point about Voldemort is that he will kill even if it doesn't mean anything. Lots of people are going to end up dead in this book, and not all of them will be characters to whom we're attached. (Though, sadly, some will.)
Percy: 45%
Percy, on the other hand, is certainly distinct from the mass of good, supporting characters. Will he have the chance to reconcile with his family? I hope so; but then again, I hoped so with Sirius and Snape before OotP too. I could quite easily see him dying, either unreconciled or (more hopefully) repentant at the last minute, leaving Fred, George, and Ginny to come to terms with his memory after he's gone.
Snape: 60% (Emerson says 30%, Melissa 50%)
Flip a coin, more or less-- I think he's slightly more likely to die than live, but it could really go either way. JKR certainly has some plot twist remaining with him, and I think he'll turn away from Voldemort before the end, perhaps providing the key for Harry's final victory. But I don't, at this point, expect him to live to see the post-Voldemort world.
(What I'd really like to know is: Is his life-debt to James still significant? I can't see his counteracting Quirrell's curse in PS/SS as having ended it. But there's been no mention of it since.)
Draco: 75%
I expect Draco to be dead early in Book 7. I can't see Voldemort tolerating a Death Eater who can't pull the trigger. But I expect his death will serve a purpose-- Harry knows that Draco was turning from the Dark Side when the Death Eaters barged in, and (though Ron will have a hard time seeing it) Draco will live alongside Cedric in Harry's memory, as a reminder of how cruel Voldemort is.
This could go either way, of course; but I think his death is significantly more likely than his survival.
Pettigrew: 85%
Can't see him living. The only question is how he'll repay the debt to Harry.
Voldemort: 99.9% (E&M both round it off to 100%)
Techically it's possible that he could live; but does anyone seriously expect it?
Alternative predictions from readers welcome....