One More Dance Before the Dance ...
So with A DANCE WITH DRAGONS NOW TWO DAYS AWAY(!), AND NOW ONE(!) I went back and read my last ADWD post, which presents various predictions, questions, and also explodes a couple of secrets and prophecies. However, it's now been roughly three weeks since I finished my reread, and about two weeks since I finished watching the HBO series. If anything, my anticipation for the next book has been growing daily, meaning I haven't stopped thinking about the series. In other words, I've had a little more time to ruminate upon this series, to turn over various possibilities in my mind. So I have a few more bold predictions for you before the next book is officially released, along with a tidbit or two that I forgot to mention last time.
Once again, if you don't want to read spoilers or potential spoilers, STOP READING NOW.
1) The Fake Arya: I've been holding onto this theory for a while and simply forgot to post it last time. I suspect the Fake Arya is in fact Jeyne Poole, Sansa's best friend in the first book of the series. The last time we see Jeyne, she's in Sansa's room shortly before Eddard's execution and is sobbing uncontrollably. IIRC, when Jeyne is removed from Sansa's room, it's Petyr Baelish who takes care of it. We never see Jeyne die. Now you can argue that Petyr could have just killed her, but that's not Littlefinger's style if there is an opportunity to make use of another pawn. In this case, Jeyne Poole has been coerced into pretending to be Arya. The Bastard of Bolton can then marry her, and claim to the North that he's married the one remaining Stark, which will help secure the Bolton rule over the North. This puts Petyr in good standing with the the Iron Throne, of course ...but this all comes back to his plans within plans. Once Sansa is revealed as Eddard Stark's daughter when she marries Harry the Heir, she can also expose the false Arya, by revealing her true identity. So if there are any divided loyalties among the North about whom to follow, this will turn the tide in favor of Baelish and Sansa, as the the betrayals of the Boltons will become exposed. Oh, Littlefinger. Is there no scheme too devious for you?
2) The Dragons: Over the last few days, I've been getting a terrible feeling that one of the dragons is going to die in ADWD. Obviously they're going to play a pivotal role in the next book. The title tells us as much. But I think the vast majority of Martin's readers (myself included until now) have just been operating under the assumption that all three dragons will be there to help throw back the Others ...just like we assumed that all the direwolves would be around for a long, long time ...and then Lady died before we reached page 200 in AGOT. We're all assuming Dany will come to Westeros with three dragons, because that's what Aegon the Conqueror did. But then again, we all assumed that the Stallion Who Mounts the World would be born to fulfill the prophecy of combining the khalasars. The point is that things rarely go according to plan in Martin's world. If we all expect there to be three dragons present to fight the others, that means there is a good chance there will only be two.
So let's take a look at all the interested parties (that we know of) in either Dany or her dragons going into ADWD (or later on ADWD when the narrative catches up with AFFC): Dany herself, Victarrion Greyjoy, Euron Greyjoy, possibly Asha Greyjoy too, Maester Marwyn, Quentyn Martell, Ilyrio Mopatis (he was the one who gave her the eggs after all, and sent the ships for her at the end of ACOK). The rulers of the other cities near Mereen (where Dany currently is) will also be keenly interested in the dragons. There is also the banished Jorah Mormont and Daario Naharis, either one of which may well be on their way to betraying Dany in this book (or both of them). And we also have Tyrion and Varys. Both of them fled over the Narrow Sea. So there is a chance that either one of their storylines could also intersect with Dany's at some point (yes, Arya is across the Narrow Sea too, but she has her own thing going on with becoming a coldblooded killer. I'll be shocked if her storyline intersects with Dany in this book). But anyway, if you take all these different people, just about all of them with different objectives ...even if you subtract a presence or two for various reasons, this is a recipe for a bloodbath. And in this tug of war for the dragons, is it so unreasonable to believe that one of them actually gets killed? Not at all.
Fallout: Should this happen, I believe this is the straw that breaks the camel's back. For Dany, this means that all these actions have caused "waked the dragon." Her wrath will no know no bounds, and she'll finally turn her full attention toward Westeros, but she'l be crossing the sea as an avenging angel, when what Westeros really needs is a savior. It will be up to Maester Marwyn to steer her in the right direction. This also impacts who will ride the dragons if there are suddenly two instead of three. Dany clearly gets one. I'd put my money on Jon Snow to ride the other. I had mentioned Bran being another guess, since he's the Winged Wolf. I think it's still possible he can inhabit a dragon, but he would do so as a warg. Bran's ability to slip inside the skins of other creatures could represent a legitimate means to regain control of the dragons if they're enslaved by the dragon horn.
Mind you, I'm not saying a dragon WILL die in this book. I'm just warning you all not to be surprised if it happens.
The Iron Throne: Recently I've also been asking myself who will be sitting on the Iron Throne when it's all said and done. I think the answer is Jon Snow ...or perhaps at this point he will be Jon Targaryen, or [Insert Name] Targaryen, if Rhaegar and Lyanna had picked out another name for Jon that Ned decided needed to be hidden in order to protect his true identity. Jon had the chance to become Jon Stark and he declined. So he needs to accept his Targaryen name and lineage in order to continue the line of this house. We've already learned that Dany can no longer bear children, so the Targaryen line could not even continue from the female side. It's Jon or nothing. Now Jon is the Lord Commander of the Wall, meaning he's supposed to remove himself from the affairs of the Seven Kingdoms. But I suspect that come the end of the seventh book, there will no longer be a need for the Wall. The Others will be overthrown once and for all, meaning the Night's Watch can be dissolved. I'll once again point to Dany's vision in the House of Warlocks in the second book, when she sees a vision of a blue flower growing from an ice wall. As I said in the other post about ADWD, I believe this will be one of the last (or the last) images in the final book, as I expect this flower is in fact growing from the Wall, a signal that this is the beginning of the end of the Wall, along with the first hints of spring. If so, it lends to my theory that the Night's Watch can be dissolved. If this happens, Jon might be the best possible ruler for the Seven Kingdoms. First, we'll see the bastard sitting on the Iron Throne, something that is totally unthinkable. Second, Jon may not be Eddard's son in blood, but he's Eddard's son in his beliefs. He's not motivated by power, riches, or vengeance. He does what's right, and he understands the meaning of honor. As Lord Commander of the Wall, he also understands what it is to be a leader and to put the needs of the realm first.
So given all this, I think Jon will be sitting the Iron Throne come the end ...of course this begs the question of who will be his wife and what happens to Dany if she can't conceive. I see two possibilities here. One is somehow Martin will work things out in a plausible manner that Dany will be able to conceive at some point. Should this happen, she and Jon will rule as king and queen. But Dany suddenly being able to conceive does seem like it would hurt the resonance of how she came to be Mother of Dragons. So if she can't ...
I think Dany will die, and go down as one of the great legends of Westeros for bringing back the dragons and helping save Westeros from the Others. She can't sit the Iron Throne if she can't continue the Targaryen line. But even without her, any dragons that survive should accept Jon thanks to his Targaryen blood. So we'll have to see what happens on this front, but I'm now leaning toward Dany's death. Ah, but who might be Jon's queen if it isn't Dany? I think Arianne makes the most sense. It will heal the old wounds that Dorne has been nursing, and with the wars over, Dorne will probably be in the best shape of the Seven Kingdoms given their location and their current situation. Jon will need the strength of Dorne to consolidate his rule, so this will be a political marriage. However, it also affords Arianne a chance to make amends for screwing everything up in book four. And as Doran's original plan seemed to be to have Arianne ruling as queen of Westeros beside Viserys, this would bring things full circle. And the circle becomes even fuller since Elia was supposed to be queen as well when Rhaegar came into the throne. If all this happens, when the dust has finally settled I believe Dorne's desire for justice will finally be satisfied. It would also put Quentyn in control of Dorne come the end of the series, which was Doran's original plan.
If this feels like I'm going against the prevailing and popular belief concerning Jon and Dany getting together, I am. Oh, they still might get together and they might even fall in love, but we have to look at the facts. Dany can't conceive and I do believe that come the end of the series the Targaryens will once again be sitting on the Iron Throne. Having a barren queen does not promote stability to the line or the realm. If Dany is ruling and she's not married to Jon, once she dies that's the end of the Targaryen line on the Iron Throne. The only other alternative I can see is Dany marrying Jon, and Jon fathers the official heir upon another woman with Dany's blessing, and that idea leaves a bitter taste in my mouth. So if you believe either of these characters will be ruling Westeros in the end, having them together doesn't make much sense.
Dorne's importance has been gradually mounting as the storyline has progressed, so obviously I'm of the opinion that this trend is going to continue. The idea of Jon and Dany together come the end might put a smile on everyone's faces, but this series is not about making us smile. It's about cold and brutal truths. More characters we don't want to die will die, and after all the plots and sub-plots have been resolved, whatever characters are still alive are going to have make the best of the situation when they look upon a realm that is in tatters. Half the realm already is in tatters, and winter is just starting to set come the end of the fourth book. Things are going to get much worse.
The Great Houses: With the idea of things getting worse, I've also been considering the idea of which Great Houses will be extinguished. I think it's a little unrealistic to believe they're all going to pull through. I've mentioned the Freys being extinguished, but what I'm really talking about are the major families, the Starks, the Lannisters, etc. I think the Arryns are goners. Harry the Heir may be the heir, but I don't believe he carries the Arryn name. He's just the one with the closest blood ties to this house. Robert Arryn is so sickly we're all just waiting for him to die, and that'll be the end of House Arryn. I think House Baratheon may come to an end as well. I expect Stannis to die, and his daughter isn't exactly in stellar health either. She can easily be removed from the picture (or maybe Stannis can even be convinced to give her to the flames--how tragic would that be). I don't think Martin has mentioned any other living Baratheons, and extinguishing this line would allow the Targaryens to have a firmer hold on the Iron Throne come the end of the series. I expect the Targaryens to live on through Jon, the Starks to live on through Rickon, and as I've said before I expect Tyrion will be the Lord of Casterly Rock come the end of the series. I've detailed my thoughts on the Martells above. I expect the Tullys will scrape by, though it might be that Edmure dies and Brynden becomes the Lord of Riverrun and all these years later he finally takes a wife to preserve the line (assuming Roslin whelps a girl). That leaves the Greyjoys and the Tyrells. I think the Greyjoys will live on through Asha, but I expect the rest of the men in the family will die. I'll say the Tyrells will survive as well, but like the Lannisters I expect their house will be severely weakened come the end. Like the Lannisters, this is a scheming and grasping family that has some comeuppance coming its way. Not all of the children strike me as bad, but the sins of Mace Tyrell shall visit tragedy upon his kin. And while they're not one of the elite families, I'm also kind of hoping that House Bolton is extinguished.
The Secret PoV Character: Three of the four new pov characters are more or less open knowledge at this point (Quentyn, Barristan Selmy, and Melisandre) but Martin has remained tight-lipped regarding the fourth one. I've theorized in other places who this final character might be, but after giving it further thought I've narrowed it down to these four candidates:
1) Rickon Stark
2) Osha
3) Jorah Mormont
4) Maester Marwyn
After focusing on King's Landing, I think it stands to reason that this final pov character will be in the North or across the Narrow Sea. That's what we've been waiting for all this time, so while characters like Bryden Tully, Sandor Clegane, or Jeyne Westerling seem like interesting possibilities, I'm going to assume that Martin is going to give the people more of what they want in this final pov character. Rickon is a Stark, which makes him an excellent choice. He'll also be close to what Bran's age was at the beginning of A Game of Thrones. If he doesn't dip into Rickon's head, he could just as easily dip into Osha's head. Everyone talks about how we've been waiting eleven years to find out what's up with Tyrion, Dany, and Jon, but we've been waiting thirteen years to find out what's up with Theon, the Bastard of Bolton, Rickon, and Osha. I wouldn't be opposed to receiving Rickon or Osha's perspective to find out more about what's going on in the North. As to Jorah, going into his pov after he's been cut adrift from Dany could be really interesting, and might make for a nice counterpoint to Barristan's pov, since he's the protector that Dany kept on. And my last choice is receiving Maester Marwyn's pov after the narrative in ADWD catches up with AFFC. It could be interesting to learn more about the maesters since we learned they were responsible for the death of the dragons. I consider this one the most unlikely though, since I'd imagine we can just as easily learn a lot of this through Samwell's pov in The Winds of Winter.
So that's it. And this really is my last post about ASOIAF until the next book comes out ...we're almost there! And if I should completely whiff on all my bold predictions, I don't much care. I just want to be massively entertained when I read this book, and all the reviews lead me to believe I will be ...and I do think at least some of my predictions in this and my previous post are right. I've spent too much time theorizing about this world not to knock at least a few of these theories out of the park.
Onward to the Dance!
Once again, if you don't want to read spoilers or potential spoilers, STOP READING NOW.
1) The Fake Arya: I've been holding onto this theory for a while and simply forgot to post it last time. I suspect the Fake Arya is in fact Jeyne Poole, Sansa's best friend in the first book of the series. The last time we see Jeyne, she's in Sansa's room shortly before Eddard's execution and is sobbing uncontrollably. IIRC, when Jeyne is removed from Sansa's room, it's Petyr Baelish who takes care of it. We never see Jeyne die. Now you can argue that Petyr could have just killed her, but that's not Littlefinger's style if there is an opportunity to make use of another pawn. In this case, Jeyne Poole has been coerced into pretending to be Arya. The Bastard of Bolton can then marry her, and claim to the North that he's married the one remaining Stark, which will help secure the Bolton rule over the North. This puts Petyr in good standing with the the Iron Throne, of course ...but this all comes back to his plans within plans. Once Sansa is revealed as Eddard Stark's daughter when she marries Harry the Heir, she can also expose the false Arya, by revealing her true identity. So if there are any divided loyalties among the North about whom to follow, this will turn the tide in favor of Baelish and Sansa, as the the betrayals of the Boltons will become exposed. Oh, Littlefinger. Is there no scheme too devious for you?
2) The Dragons: Over the last few days, I've been getting a terrible feeling that one of the dragons is going to die in ADWD. Obviously they're going to play a pivotal role in the next book. The title tells us as much. But I think the vast majority of Martin's readers (myself included until now) have just been operating under the assumption that all three dragons will be there to help throw back the Others ...just like we assumed that all the direwolves would be around for a long, long time ...and then Lady died before we reached page 200 in AGOT. We're all assuming Dany will come to Westeros with three dragons, because that's what Aegon the Conqueror did. But then again, we all assumed that the Stallion Who Mounts the World would be born to fulfill the prophecy of combining the khalasars. The point is that things rarely go according to plan in Martin's world. If we all expect there to be three dragons present to fight the others, that means there is a good chance there will only be two.
So let's take a look at all the interested parties (that we know of) in either Dany or her dragons going into ADWD (or later on ADWD when the narrative catches up with AFFC): Dany herself, Victarrion Greyjoy, Euron Greyjoy, possibly Asha Greyjoy too, Maester Marwyn, Quentyn Martell, Ilyrio Mopatis (he was the one who gave her the eggs after all, and sent the ships for her at the end of ACOK). The rulers of the other cities near Mereen (where Dany currently is) will also be keenly interested in the dragons. There is also the banished Jorah Mormont and Daario Naharis, either one of which may well be on their way to betraying Dany in this book (or both of them). And we also have Tyrion and Varys. Both of them fled over the Narrow Sea. So there is a chance that either one of their storylines could also intersect with Dany's at some point (yes, Arya is across the Narrow Sea too, but she has her own thing going on with becoming a coldblooded killer. I'll be shocked if her storyline intersects with Dany in this book). But anyway, if you take all these different people, just about all of them with different objectives ...even if you subtract a presence or two for various reasons, this is a recipe for a bloodbath. And in this tug of war for the dragons, is it so unreasonable to believe that one of them actually gets killed? Not at all.
Fallout: Should this happen, I believe this is the straw that breaks the camel's back. For Dany, this means that all these actions have caused "waked the dragon." Her wrath will no know no bounds, and she'll finally turn her full attention toward Westeros, but she'l be crossing the sea as an avenging angel, when what Westeros really needs is a savior. It will be up to Maester Marwyn to steer her in the right direction. This also impacts who will ride the dragons if there are suddenly two instead of three. Dany clearly gets one. I'd put my money on Jon Snow to ride the other. I had mentioned Bran being another guess, since he's the Winged Wolf. I think it's still possible he can inhabit a dragon, but he would do so as a warg. Bran's ability to slip inside the skins of other creatures could represent a legitimate means to regain control of the dragons if they're enslaved by the dragon horn.
Mind you, I'm not saying a dragon WILL die in this book. I'm just warning you all not to be surprised if it happens.
The Iron Throne: Recently I've also been asking myself who will be sitting on the Iron Throne when it's all said and done. I think the answer is Jon Snow ...or perhaps at this point he will be Jon Targaryen, or [Insert Name] Targaryen, if Rhaegar and Lyanna had picked out another name for Jon that Ned decided needed to be hidden in order to protect his true identity. Jon had the chance to become Jon Stark and he declined. So he needs to accept his Targaryen name and lineage in order to continue the line of this house. We've already learned that Dany can no longer bear children, so the Targaryen line could not even continue from the female side. It's Jon or nothing. Now Jon is the Lord Commander of the Wall, meaning he's supposed to remove himself from the affairs of the Seven Kingdoms. But I suspect that come the end of the seventh book, there will no longer be a need for the Wall. The Others will be overthrown once and for all, meaning the Night's Watch can be dissolved. I'll once again point to Dany's vision in the House of Warlocks in the second book, when she sees a vision of a blue flower growing from an ice wall. As I said in the other post about ADWD, I believe this will be one of the last (or the last) images in the final book, as I expect this flower is in fact growing from the Wall, a signal that this is the beginning of the end of the Wall, along with the first hints of spring. If so, it lends to my theory that the Night's Watch can be dissolved. If this happens, Jon might be the best possible ruler for the Seven Kingdoms. First, we'll see the bastard sitting on the Iron Throne, something that is totally unthinkable. Second, Jon may not be Eddard's son in blood, but he's Eddard's son in his beliefs. He's not motivated by power, riches, or vengeance. He does what's right, and he understands the meaning of honor. As Lord Commander of the Wall, he also understands what it is to be a leader and to put the needs of the realm first.
So given all this, I think Jon will be sitting the Iron Throne come the end ...of course this begs the question of who will be his wife and what happens to Dany if she can't conceive. I see two possibilities here. One is somehow Martin will work things out in a plausible manner that Dany will be able to conceive at some point. Should this happen, she and Jon will rule as king and queen. But Dany suddenly being able to conceive does seem like it would hurt the resonance of how she came to be Mother of Dragons. So if she can't ...
I think Dany will die, and go down as one of the great legends of Westeros for bringing back the dragons and helping save Westeros from the Others. She can't sit the Iron Throne if she can't continue the Targaryen line. But even without her, any dragons that survive should accept Jon thanks to his Targaryen blood. So we'll have to see what happens on this front, but I'm now leaning toward Dany's death. Ah, but who might be Jon's queen if it isn't Dany? I think Arianne makes the most sense. It will heal the old wounds that Dorne has been nursing, and with the wars over, Dorne will probably be in the best shape of the Seven Kingdoms given their location and their current situation. Jon will need the strength of Dorne to consolidate his rule, so this will be a political marriage. However, it also affords Arianne a chance to make amends for screwing everything up in book four. And as Doran's original plan seemed to be to have Arianne ruling as queen of Westeros beside Viserys, this would bring things full circle. And the circle becomes even fuller since Elia was supposed to be queen as well when Rhaegar came into the throne. If all this happens, when the dust has finally settled I believe Dorne's desire for justice will finally be satisfied. It would also put Quentyn in control of Dorne come the end of the series, which was Doran's original plan.
If this feels like I'm going against the prevailing and popular belief concerning Jon and Dany getting together, I am. Oh, they still might get together and they might even fall in love, but we have to look at the facts. Dany can't conceive and I do believe that come the end of the series the Targaryens will once again be sitting on the Iron Throne. Having a barren queen does not promote stability to the line or the realm. If Dany is ruling and she's not married to Jon, once she dies that's the end of the Targaryen line on the Iron Throne. The only other alternative I can see is Dany marrying Jon, and Jon fathers the official heir upon another woman with Dany's blessing, and that idea leaves a bitter taste in my mouth. So if you believe either of these characters will be ruling Westeros in the end, having them together doesn't make much sense.
Dorne's importance has been gradually mounting as the storyline has progressed, so obviously I'm of the opinion that this trend is going to continue. The idea of Jon and Dany together come the end might put a smile on everyone's faces, but this series is not about making us smile. It's about cold and brutal truths. More characters we don't want to die will die, and after all the plots and sub-plots have been resolved, whatever characters are still alive are going to have make the best of the situation when they look upon a realm that is in tatters. Half the realm already is in tatters, and winter is just starting to set come the end of the fourth book. Things are going to get much worse.
The Great Houses: With the idea of things getting worse, I've also been considering the idea of which Great Houses will be extinguished. I think it's a little unrealistic to believe they're all going to pull through. I've mentioned the Freys being extinguished, but what I'm really talking about are the major families, the Starks, the Lannisters, etc. I think the Arryns are goners. Harry the Heir may be the heir, but I don't believe he carries the Arryn name. He's just the one with the closest blood ties to this house. Robert Arryn is so sickly we're all just waiting for him to die, and that'll be the end of House Arryn. I think House Baratheon may come to an end as well. I expect Stannis to die, and his daughter isn't exactly in stellar health either. She can easily be removed from the picture (or maybe Stannis can even be convinced to give her to the flames--how tragic would that be). I don't think Martin has mentioned any other living Baratheons, and extinguishing this line would allow the Targaryens to have a firmer hold on the Iron Throne come the end of the series. I expect the Targaryens to live on through Jon, the Starks to live on through Rickon, and as I've said before I expect Tyrion will be the Lord of Casterly Rock come the end of the series. I've detailed my thoughts on the Martells above. I expect the Tullys will scrape by, though it might be that Edmure dies and Brynden becomes the Lord of Riverrun and all these years later he finally takes a wife to preserve the line (assuming Roslin whelps a girl). That leaves the Greyjoys and the Tyrells. I think the Greyjoys will live on through Asha, but I expect the rest of the men in the family will die. I'll say the Tyrells will survive as well, but like the Lannisters I expect their house will be severely weakened come the end. Like the Lannisters, this is a scheming and grasping family that has some comeuppance coming its way. Not all of the children strike me as bad, but the sins of Mace Tyrell shall visit tragedy upon his kin. And while they're not one of the elite families, I'm also kind of hoping that House Bolton is extinguished.
The Secret PoV Character: Three of the four new pov characters are more or less open knowledge at this point (Quentyn, Barristan Selmy, and Melisandre) but Martin has remained tight-lipped regarding the fourth one. I've theorized in other places who this final character might be, but after giving it further thought I've narrowed it down to these four candidates:
1) Rickon Stark
2) Osha
3) Jorah Mormont
4) Maester Marwyn
After focusing on King's Landing, I think it stands to reason that this final pov character will be in the North or across the Narrow Sea. That's what we've been waiting for all this time, so while characters like Bryden Tully, Sandor Clegane, or Jeyne Westerling seem like interesting possibilities, I'm going to assume that Martin is going to give the people more of what they want in this final pov character. Rickon is a Stark, which makes him an excellent choice. He'll also be close to what Bran's age was at the beginning of A Game of Thrones. If he doesn't dip into Rickon's head, he could just as easily dip into Osha's head. Everyone talks about how we've been waiting eleven years to find out what's up with Tyrion, Dany, and Jon, but we've been waiting thirteen years to find out what's up with Theon, the Bastard of Bolton, Rickon, and Osha. I wouldn't be opposed to receiving Rickon or Osha's perspective to find out more about what's going on in the North. As to Jorah, going into his pov after he's been cut adrift from Dany could be really interesting, and might make for a nice counterpoint to Barristan's pov, since he's the protector that Dany kept on. And my last choice is receiving Maester Marwyn's pov after the narrative in ADWD catches up with AFFC. It could be interesting to learn more about the maesters since we learned they were responsible for the death of the dragons. I consider this one the most unlikely though, since I'd imagine we can just as easily learn a lot of this through Samwell's pov in The Winds of Winter.
So that's it. And this really is my last post about ASOIAF until the next book comes out ...we're almost there! And if I should completely whiff on all my bold predictions, I don't much care. I just want to be massively entertained when I read this book, and all the reviews lead me to believe I will be ...and I do think at least some of my predictions in this and my previous post are right. I've spent too much time theorizing about this world not to knock at least a few of these theories out of the park.
Onward to the Dance!