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rather than impose further controls on inflows, china is expected to improve enforcement of existing measures and to continue encouraging capital outflows, both of government investment vehicles and more recently of retail investors through ugg bailey button triplet the revived qualified domestic institutional investment (qdii) program. based on the pace of reserve growth, hot money (short-term portfolio inflows) again began flooding into china even as domestic monetary conditions have led to an appreciation of domestic real womens boots assets,cheap ugg, especially property. chinas quasi dollar peg suggests inflows will persist. china never lifted pre-existing capital controls.
although most asian countries are expected to keep intervening amid some currency appreciation, several countries may impose restrictions on foreign currency transactions. given buoyant equity markets, attractive carry trades and the u.s. dollar weakness, policy measures will not contain the impact of capital inflows on asian currencies, meaning that some appreciation from the least trade-dependent countries is to be expected. taiwan is the country where capital controls or new restrictions are most likely to be implemented.
the philippines will keep on engaging in competitive devaluation due to its dependence on remittances to drive economic growth. with capital controls already in place and a need for foreign capital to finance its current account deficit and build foreign reserves, the vietnamese central bank may instead devalue and restrict currency transactions to manage its currency.despite a flood of portfolio investments into many of the regions asset markets since early 2009, asia still needs foreign capital to stimulate investment and finance its current accounts. therefore, facing a sluggish export recovery and a pegged chinese renminbi, most countries have opted to contain currency appreciation via verbal and actual interventions to avoid losing competitiveness. intervention in the foreign exchange market has led to record reserve growth of over us$70 billion in q3 alone in emerging asia ex-china.
developed asia-pacific economies, only japan, australia and new zealand have resorted to verbal intervention so far. australia views currency strength as a reflection of its economy’s resilience and is unlikely to officially intervene, especially after the failed intervention in october 2008. monetary tightening could spark more inflows. japan will continue to rely on verbal intervention to dampen yen sheepskin boot appreciation, albeit less frequently than the previous pro-export administration, as a stronger yen will help rebalance the economy toward domestic demand. meanwhile, new zealand officials are more apprehensive that the kiwi’s strength may abbreviate the economy’s rebalancing away from debt-fueled domestic demand.
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