Oscar Predictions And Analysis
Editor's Note: This is a work in progress, seeing as how this is going to take a lot of time and time is something that I really don't have a lot of. So, over the next few hours, this entry is going to be getting edited a lot. Thanks.
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In this article I'm going to explain who I believe is going to win, who I think should win, who I think could (Or should) have been nominated and explain why. Also, I'm going to place - in order - how I would vote for each category. Granted, I know that you don't rank the nominees when you actually vote for them, but I'm doing things a bit differently here. Enjoy.
Best Picture
For me, this is not a hard vote at all. Brokeback Mountain is clearly the runaway winner in this category. Granted, the only nominee that I have yet to see is Capote, however, I doubt that it has the gravitas to overthrow Ang Lee's film. Crash and Munich were excellent choices in this category as well. However, Crash really engages the viewer through its actors and story. The cinematography, editing, etc. do not really hold me into the film itself. (I know that you may say, "Well, they have categories for that. To me, Best Picture is the best WHOLE movie. All elements of the film are to be taken into account here) The flipside of the category is Munich, where a lot of it's technical aspects were good, but some of the performances were a bit spotty. As for Good Night, and Good Luck, I have a hard time seeing it win Best Picture this year. This film reminds me a lot of The Aviator last year, where you look at the film and say, "This is an excellent picture." All the elements of the film are well crafted and guided throughout. However, like The Aviator last year, there is another movie it's competing against which is just too much to overcome.
Who Will Win: Brokeback Mountain
Who Should Win: Brokeback Mountain
My Voting: Brokeback Mountain, Munich, Good Night, and Good Luck, Crash, Capote
Other Nomination Consideration: A History of Violence, because Cronenberg's bloody poem is a film that resonates almost as deeply as Brokeback Mountain.
Best Director
Again, much like Best Picture, this is an easy category to choose. Ang Lee deserves this award for Brokeback Mountain, and if that isn't enough, his past achievements when he's been overlooked (Nominated for Sense and Sensibility and Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon) should also merit him this award. As for Clooney, Haggis, and Miller, this was a fine year for them and their reward for their craftsmanship is the nomination. In the future, I predict that Clooney and Haggis will be making a definite return to this category. As for Spielberg, my hero went out of his way this year. He crafted a film that was, well, un-Spielberg like. Spielberg's two best movies (Prior to this) were arguably Schindler's List and Saving Private Ryan. What they have in common is that they are adult fares. There's not really a deeply warm ending to either film and Munich goes back to that. As I said for Best Picture, I feel that Spielberg's efforts were ordinarily be rewarded for this film, but this year he faces too tough of a challenge in Lee.
Who Will Win: Ang Lee - Brokeback Mountain
Who Should Win: Ang Lee - Brokeback Mountain
My Voting: Ang Lee - Brokeback Mountain, Steven Spielberg - Munich, Paul Haggis - Crash, George Clooney - Good Night, and Good Luck, and Bennett Miller - Capote.
Other Nomination Consideration: David Cronenberg - A History of Violence. Cronenberg's energy and suspense trigger anyone to pay attention to this drama/thriller.
Best Actor
This is the second most intriguing category of the year. From what I understand and have read, Philip Seymour Hoffman is dead-on with his portrayal of Capote. The Academy tends to reward exact portrayals of this nature (See Ray of last year) and I have a hard time believing that they will not follow suit this year. Also, lots of the Academy members remember Capote from personal encounters. However, he would not get my vote. Not this year. Again, referring back to last year's Oscars, Heath Ledger's role in Brokeback Mountain was truly captivating, like Eastwood's in Million Dollar Baby. This role was no ordinary tough-as-nails guy. Ledger showed his confliction, insecurity, and love without being domineering. The real surprise - though a pleasant one - was Terrence Howard for Hustle and Flow. David Straitham, though talented, just does not seem to have the engaging capabilities that Ledger (Or Hoffman) have. As for Phoenix, Walk the Line was an exercise to show a love story, but all we see is his spot-on impersonation of Johnny Cash.
Who Will Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman - Capote
Who Should Win: Heath Ledger - Brokeback Mountain
My Voting: Ledger, Hoffman, Straitham, Howard, Phoenix
Other Nomination Consideration: Eric Bana - Munich. This was a year of confliction for leading men. One of the more intriguing cases was demonstrated by Bana.
Best Actress
To be honest, this is the category I know the least about. I've seen one of the five performances. Honestly, Reese Witherspoon did a fantastic job, shedding her comedic shell to tackle June Cash. Handicapping off what I know, Dench and Theron won't win because they both have past wins and/or nominations. Plus, the buzz around those two is pretty quiet. As much as I love Keira Knightley, I have a difficult time seeing her take the statue home because Witherspoon and Huffman have so thoroughly dominated the awards' season. I will have to say that Huffman probably deserves it because Witherspoon's performance, though good, didn't astonish me at all. Huffman's transformation is a favorite among voters as well.
Who Will Win: Felicity Huffman - Transamerica
Other Nomination Consideration: Maria Bello - A History of Violence. I know that one could make the argument that she was a supporting character, but I would say that she was just as pivotal as her husband. The terrified, but intrigued, wife of a mysterious man makes you empathize with her character completely.
(I'm not going to show my voting or say who should win because I know that I haven't seen even a majority of the category. - However, I'm a gambling man, so that's why I make a prediction as to who will win)
Best Supporting Actor
The most stacked category of the year. The sheer collection of talent in this category is almost mind-boggling. You know it's a tough year when I say this: Paul Giamatti's role was the least deserving of a nomination. There, I said it. Clooney's nomination, though grateful to the man himself seems a bit too low key. William Hurt, though incredibly repugnant in A History of Violence, won't win because of previous wins and the fact that he's only in the movie for around 10 minutes. This leaves two of the juiciest roles of the year: Matt Dillon in Crash and Jake Gyllenhaal for Brokeback Mountain. As much as I think that Dillon made career leaps in this film, I don't think that he'll be able to overcome the juggernaut that is Brokeback Mountain.
Who Will Win: Jake Gyllenhaal - Brokeback Mountain
Who Should Win: Jake Gyllenhaal - Brokeback Mountain
My Voting: Gyllenhaal, Dillon, Hurt, Clooney, Giamatti
Other Nomination Consideration: Mickey Rourke - Sin City. I remember when this movie first came out and some smart-ass critics said, "Who knew he could act." Well, fellas, he can. Did you not see Barfly? Rourke brought the right amount of brute to this man, equipped with a sly sense of wit. People would argue though that he was just playing himself.
Best Supporting Actress
This is another category where I have a difficult time making an accurate call. However, I will because the two roles that seem to have generated the greatest respect and amount of awards have been Rachel Weisz and Michelle Williams. McDormand has an Oscar win already, so I doubt that she'll garner a second award for her mantle. Catherine Keener is quickly becoming the most underappreciated actress in Hollywood. However, I have yet to hear anything that could trump Williams or Weisz. Amy Adams has won some auxiliary awards, but when the real meat awards were being presented (Golden Globes, SAG), Weisz and Williams were the ones still being called. In the end, it will come down to those two. Weisz, the mysteriously murdered activist, who did a phenomenal job (I would also like to give a shout-out to Mr. Fiennes as this point. High chill scene factor when he learns of his wife's death). I'm inclined to give it to Williams though. When watching the film, the part where she sees Ledger and Gyllenhaal kissing outside her house is devastating.
Who Will Win: Rachel Weisz - The Constant Gardener
Who Should Win: Michelle Williams - Brokeback Mountain
My Voting: Williams, Weisz, Keener, Adams, McDormand
Other Nomination Consideration: Dakota Fanning - War of the Worlds. I know that I'm literally out of my mind for saying this out loud. However, for someone who is 11 years old to hold their own in a major motion picture and provide the proper and believable amount of friction against Cruise was something bright to see.
The rest of the awards I'm just going to go with who should win...
The Best of the Rest...
Best Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen: A very juicy category, with a lot of nominees. This is where I feel that Clooney will be rewarded for his work on Good Night, and Good Luck. Haggis is very deserving as well, but for a person to step out of their element (Clooney being an actor) and write this is always a positive for Academy members.
Best Screenplay Adapted for the Screen: Brokeback Mountain. The movie has spawned the catch phrase of the year ("I wish I knew how to quit you!") and crafts a mesmerizing and aching love story. Easy choice here.
Best Cinematography: My favorite technical category. My choice for the year's best - Jarhead - isn't even nominated. Again, I'm going to go with Brokeback Mountain for pulling off the sweeping landscapes of Wyoming, and being able to draw it in close for the drama that exists within the city.
Best Editing: Munich for the degree of difficulty of piecing together one of the most unusual endings in recent memory. Talk about mindbending.
Best Art Direction: Memoirs of a Geisha. This movie was probably the most disappointing film of the year for me. A technical marvel, but it felts so shallow. The Art Direction and Costumes though were truly remarkable in scale and scope.
Best Costume Design: Memoirs of a Geisha. This was an easy choice.
Best Musical Score: Brokeback Mountain for it's haunting melody that plays subtly throughout the film.
Best Song: As excited as I am to see the performance of Hustle and Flow's "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp," I think that Crash will take this one.
Best Make Up: The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch, and the Wardrobe. In this category, Narnia trumps the competition.
Best Sound: King Kong
Best Sound Effects Editing: King Kong
Best Special Effects: King Kong
For Those Of You Keeping Tally At Home...
Brokeback Mountain - 6
King Kong - 3
Memoirs of a Geisha - 2
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe - 1
Capote - 1
The Constant Gardener - 1
Crash - 1
Good Night, and Good Luck - 1
Munich - 1
Transamerica - 1
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In this article I'm going to explain who I believe is going to win, who I think should win, who I think could (Or should) have been nominated and explain why. Also, I'm going to place - in order - how I would vote for each category. Granted, I know that you don't rank the nominees when you actually vote for them, but I'm doing things a bit differently here. Enjoy.
Best Picture
For me, this is not a hard vote at all. Brokeback Mountain is clearly the runaway winner in this category. Granted, the only nominee that I have yet to see is Capote, however, I doubt that it has the gravitas to overthrow Ang Lee's film. Crash and Munich were excellent choices in this category as well. However, Crash really engages the viewer through its actors and story. The cinematography, editing, etc. do not really hold me into the film itself. (I know that you may say, "Well, they have categories for that. To me, Best Picture is the best WHOLE movie. All elements of the film are to be taken into account here) The flipside of the category is Munich, where a lot of it's technical aspects were good, but some of the performances were a bit spotty. As for Good Night, and Good Luck, I have a hard time seeing it win Best Picture this year. This film reminds me a lot of The Aviator last year, where you look at the film and say, "This is an excellent picture." All the elements of the film are well crafted and guided throughout. However, like The Aviator last year, there is another movie it's competing against which is just too much to overcome.
Who Will Win: Brokeback Mountain
Who Should Win: Brokeback Mountain
My Voting: Brokeback Mountain, Munich, Good Night, and Good Luck, Crash, Capote
Other Nomination Consideration: A History of Violence, because Cronenberg's bloody poem is a film that resonates almost as deeply as Brokeback Mountain.
Best Director
Again, much like Best Picture, this is an easy category to choose. Ang Lee deserves this award for Brokeback Mountain, and if that isn't enough, his past achievements when he's been overlooked (Nominated for Sense and Sensibility and Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon) should also merit him this award. As for Clooney, Haggis, and Miller, this was a fine year for them and their reward for their craftsmanship is the nomination. In the future, I predict that Clooney and Haggis will be making a definite return to this category. As for Spielberg, my hero went out of his way this year. He crafted a film that was, well, un-Spielberg like. Spielberg's two best movies (Prior to this) were arguably Schindler's List and Saving Private Ryan. What they have in common is that they are adult fares. There's not really a deeply warm ending to either film and Munich goes back to that. As I said for Best Picture, I feel that Spielberg's efforts were ordinarily be rewarded for this film, but this year he faces too tough of a challenge in Lee.
Who Will Win: Ang Lee - Brokeback Mountain
Who Should Win: Ang Lee - Brokeback Mountain
My Voting: Ang Lee - Brokeback Mountain, Steven Spielberg - Munich, Paul Haggis - Crash, George Clooney - Good Night, and Good Luck, and Bennett Miller - Capote.
Other Nomination Consideration: David Cronenberg - A History of Violence. Cronenberg's energy and suspense trigger anyone to pay attention to this drama/thriller.
Best Actor
This is the second most intriguing category of the year. From what I understand and have read, Philip Seymour Hoffman is dead-on with his portrayal of Capote. The Academy tends to reward exact portrayals of this nature (See Ray of last year) and I have a hard time believing that they will not follow suit this year. Also, lots of the Academy members remember Capote from personal encounters. However, he would not get my vote. Not this year. Again, referring back to last year's Oscars, Heath Ledger's role in Brokeback Mountain was truly captivating, like Eastwood's in Million Dollar Baby. This role was no ordinary tough-as-nails guy. Ledger showed his confliction, insecurity, and love without being domineering. The real surprise - though a pleasant one - was Terrence Howard for Hustle and Flow. David Straitham, though talented, just does not seem to have the engaging capabilities that Ledger (Or Hoffman) have. As for Phoenix, Walk the Line was an exercise to show a love story, but all we see is his spot-on impersonation of Johnny Cash.
Who Will Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman - Capote
Who Should Win: Heath Ledger - Brokeback Mountain
My Voting: Ledger, Hoffman, Straitham, Howard, Phoenix
Other Nomination Consideration: Eric Bana - Munich. This was a year of confliction for leading men. One of the more intriguing cases was demonstrated by Bana.
Best Actress
To be honest, this is the category I know the least about. I've seen one of the five performances. Honestly, Reese Witherspoon did a fantastic job, shedding her comedic shell to tackle June Cash. Handicapping off what I know, Dench and Theron won't win because they both have past wins and/or nominations. Plus, the buzz around those two is pretty quiet. As much as I love Keira Knightley, I have a difficult time seeing her take the statue home because Witherspoon and Huffman have so thoroughly dominated the awards' season. I will have to say that Huffman probably deserves it because Witherspoon's performance, though good, didn't astonish me at all. Huffman's transformation is a favorite among voters as well.
Who Will Win: Felicity Huffman - Transamerica
Other Nomination Consideration: Maria Bello - A History of Violence. I know that one could make the argument that she was a supporting character, but I would say that she was just as pivotal as her husband. The terrified, but intrigued, wife of a mysterious man makes you empathize with her character completely.
(I'm not going to show my voting or say who should win because I know that I haven't seen even a majority of the category. - However, I'm a gambling man, so that's why I make a prediction as to who will win)
Best Supporting Actor
The most stacked category of the year. The sheer collection of talent in this category is almost mind-boggling. You know it's a tough year when I say this: Paul Giamatti's role was the least deserving of a nomination. There, I said it. Clooney's nomination, though grateful to the man himself seems a bit too low key. William Hurt, though incredibly repugnant in A History of Violence, won't win because of previous wins and the fact that he's only in the movie for around 10 minutes. This leaves two of the juiciest roles of the year: Matt Dillon in Crash and Jake Gyllenhaal for Brokeback Mountain. As much as I think that Dillon made career leaps in this film, I don't think that he'll be able to overcome the juggernaut that is Brokeback Mountain.
Who Will Win: Jake Gyllenhaal - Brokeback Mountain
Who Should Win: Jake Gyllenhaal - Brokeback Mountain
My Voting: Gyllenhaal, Dillon, Hurt, Clooney, Giamatti
Other Nomination Consideration: Mickey Rourke - Sin City. I remember when this movie first came out and some smart-ass critics said, "Who knew he could act." Well, fellas, he can. Did you not see Barfly? Rourke brought the right amount of brute to this man, equipped with a sly sense of wit. People would argue though that he was just playing himself.
Best Supporting Actress
This is another category where I have a difficult time making an accurate call. However, I will because the two roles that seem to have generated the greatest respect and amount of awards have been Rachel Weisz and Michelle Williams. McDormand has an Oscar win already, so I doubt that she'll garner a second award for her mantle. Catherine Keener is quickly becoming the most underappreciated actress in Hollywood. However, I have yet to hear anything that could trump Williams or Weisz. Amy Adams has won some auxiliary awards, but when the real meat awards were being presented (Golden Globes, SAG), Weisz and Williams were the ones still being called. In the end, it will come down to those two. Weisz, the mysteriously murdered activist, who did a phenomenal job (I would also like to give a shout-out to Mr. Fiennes as this point. High chill scene factor when he learns of his wife's death). I'm inclined to give it to Williams though. When watching the film, the part where she sees Ledger and Gyllenhaal kissing outside her house is devastating.
Who Will Win: Rachel Weisz - The Constant Gardener
Who Should Win: Michelle Williams - Brokeback Mountain
My Voting: Williams, Weisz, Keener, Adams, McDormand
Other Nomination Consideration: Dakota Fanning - War of the Worlds. I know that I'm literally out of my mind for saying this out loud. However, for someone who is 11 years old to hold their own in a major motion picture and provide the proper and believable amount of friction against Cruise was something bright to see.
The rest of the awards I'm just going to go with who should win...
The Best of the Rest...
Best Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen: A very juicy category, with a lot of nominees. This is where I feel that Clooney will be rewarded for his work on Good Night, and Good Luck. Haggis is very deserving as well, but for a person to step out of their element (Clooney being an actor) and write this is always a positive for Academy members.
Best Screenplay Adapted for the Screen: Brokeback Mountain. The movie has spawned the catch phrase of the year ("I wish I knew how to quit you!") and crafts a mesmerizing and aching love story. Easy choice here.
Best Cinematography: My favorite technical category. My choice for the year's best - Jarhead - isn't even nominated. Again, I'm going to go with Brokeback Mountain for pulling off the sweeping landscapes of Wyoming, and being able to draw it in close for the drama that exists within the city.
Best Editing: Munich for the degree of difficulty of piecing together one of the most unusual endings in recent memory. Talk about mindbending.
Best Art Direction: Memoirs of a Geisha. This movie was probably the most disappointing film of the year for me. A technical marvel, but it felts so shallow. The Art Direction and Costumes though were truly remarkable in scale and scope.
Best Costume Design: Memoirs of a Geisha. This was an easy choice.
Best Musical Score: Brokeback Mountain for it's haunting melody that plays subtly throughout the film.
Best Song: As excited as I am to see the performance of Hustle and Flow's "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp," I think that Crash will take this one.
Best Make Up: The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch, and the Wardrobe. In this category, Narnia trumps the competition.
Best Sound: King Kong
Best Sound Effects Editing: King Kong
Best Special Effects: King Kong
For Those Of You Keeping Tally At Home...
Brokeback Mountain - 6
King Kong - 3
Memoirs of a Geisha - 2
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe - 1
Capote - 1
The Constant Gardener - 1
Crash - 1
Good Night, and Good Luck - 1
Munich - 1
Transamerica - 1