Inflation of rouble in 2014
Hello, the valute speculants!
Have a merry Christmas, and a happy New year. Here is free gift for you.
Hope, with the graphic below you can stabilise the price of rouble. Please, use it wisely and carefully.
The figure is from Mizugadro, http://mizugadro.mydns.jp/t/index.php/File:2014specula.png
The abscissa t has sense of time, measured in days since the beginning of the project, 2014.10.27.
Ordinate y represents the price of 100 roubles, measured in the USA cents.
The thick scratched line represents the experimental data by https://www.mataf.net/en/currency/converter-USD-RUB
Other curves correspond to the approximations with elementary functions.
Linear approximation
The black straight line shows the linear approximation,
y = Linear(t) = 227.515−0.581475 t
The mean deviation for this approximation is 10.5245 ; the mean square deviation is 13.1945
Bell approximation
The blue curve shows the Bell function,
y = Bell(t) = 1 / ( 10.000838453 exp(−0.00635126 t) + 0.00351499 exp(0.00635126 t) )
The mean deviation for this approximation is 4.90078 ; the mean square deviation is 6.91678
Quadratic approximation
The black curve shows the quadratic function
y = Quadratic(t) = 232.974−0.926709 t − 0.00375255 t2
The mean deviation for this approximation is 3.79905; the mean square deviation is 5.52048
Ellipse approximation
The red arc shows the elliptic function
y = Ellipse(t) = 1.23211 sqrt( (96.9365 − t )( 375.163 + t ) )
The mean deviation for this approximation is 3.48095 ; the mean square deviation is 5.15039
Warning!
This is my first experience to deal with economical data. There may be errors. I should greatly appreciate, if one indicates them.
If you find no errors, these approximations can be used to stabilise, en fin, the Russian rouble, which shows strong jumps in the last months.
I think, if the price of 100 roubles is significantly higher, than all the approximations suggest, then it can be considered as indication to sell the roubles.
If the price of hundred roubles is significantly lower, than the lowest curve suggest, this can be considered as indication that the time is to buy roubles.
That is close to the maximum I understand in the economics. But I still believe, I understand some about the functions.
However, even the holomorphic functions at the picture cannot quatantee the stability: amy moment Putin, Kadyrov and Mabuilina can release some 10^23 rubles to the market, and the price of rouble will drop faster, than all the approximations in the figure indicate.
I still hole, that the with the figure above the valute speculants can do the job, that fail to do the administration of the Russian central bank. I mean, to stabilise the rouble, to prevent the sudden jumps, providing the stable sink. I believe, this job is very important to make the last years of existence of the RF relatively peaceful. (I mean, in compare to the French revolution and the Russian catastrfe of year 1917.) I think, this heavy and important job will be well payed by the "invisible hand of the market". Be careful, not deal with knives and impostors. Good luck!
Have a merry Christmas, and a happy New year. Here is free gift for you.
Hope, with the graphic below you can stabilise the price of rouble. Please, use it wisely and carefully.
The figure is from Mizugadro, http://mizugadro.mydns.jp/t/index.php/File:2014specula.png
The abscissa t has sense of time, measured in days since the beginning of the project, 2014.10.27.
Ordinate y represents the price of 100 roubles, measured in the USA cents.
The thick scratched line represents the experimental data by https://www.mataf.net/en/currency/converter-USD-RUB
Other curves correspond to the approximations with elementary functions.
Linear approximation
The black straight line shows the linear approximation,
y = Linear(t) = 227.515−0.581475 t
The mean deviation for this approximation is 10.5245 ; the mean square deviation is 13.1945
Bell approximation
The blue curve shows the Bell function,
y = Bell(t) = 1 / ( 10.000838453 exp(−0.00635126 t) + 0.00351499 exp(0.00635126 t) )
The mean deviation for this approximation is 4.90078 ; the mean square deviation is 6.91678
Quadratic approximation
The black curve shows the quadratic function
y = Quadratic(t) = 232.974−0.926709 t − 0.00375255 t2
The mean deviation for this approximation is 3.79905; the mean square deviation is 5.52048
Ellipse approximation
The red arc shows the elliptic function
y = Ellipse(t) = 1.23211 sqrt( (96.9365 − t )( 375.163 + t ) )
The mean deviation for this approximation is 3.48095 ; the mean square deviation is 5.15039
Warning!
This is my first experience to deal with economical data. There may be errors. I should greatly appreciate, if one indicates them.
If you find no errors, these approximations can be used to stabilise, en fin, the Russian rouble, which shows strong jumps in the last months.
I think, if the price of 100 roubles is significantly higher, than all the approximations suggest, then it can be considered as indication to sell the roubles.
If the price of hundred roubles is significantly lower, than the lowest curve suggest, this can be considered as indication that the time is to buy roubles.
That is close to the maximum I understand in the economics. But I still believe, I understand some about the functions.
However, even the holomorphic functions at the picture cannot quatantee the stability: amy moment Putin, Kadyrov and Mabuilina can release some 10^23 rubles to the market, and the price of rouble will drop faster, than all the approximations in the figure indicate.
I still hole, that the with the figure above the valute speculants can do the job, that fail to do the administration of the Russian central bank. I mean, to stabilise the rouble, to prevent the sudden jumps, providing the stable sink. I believe, this job is very important to make the last years of existence of the RF relatively peaceful. (I mean, in compare to the French revolution and the Russian catastrfe of year 1917.) I think, this heavy and important job will be well payed by the "invisible hand of the market". Be careful, not deal with knives and impostors. Good luck!