Next Year in Tibet! (20 Nissan 5768)
"Raise no more devils than you can lay."
- Dutch Proverb
In the latest news in the China/Tibet/Sudan/Zimbabwe/Olympics crisis, China's press says they have agreed to talk to envoys from the Dalai Lama, whom have in response agreed to talk to them. This is a total reversal on their stance two weeks ago, that he was a "devil in monk's robes" who was essentially responsible for everything bad that ever happened in Tibet, including the riots on April 20 where 19 Han Chinese died. But it's a good reversal, because their previous stance was bullshit.
As to the above quote, I learned it from the movie Ghost Rider, which is apparently a movie the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) needs to see, if only for the really funny scene with Nicholas Cage facing off against the ridiculously obvious bad cop/good cop interrogation. No, seriously, governments are notoriously terrible at learning this lesson, China being the most current example. After decades of nationalistic and anti-Buddhist, anti-Tibetan, and plain old anti-History government propaganda, they now have to face both the rioting world and the rioting Chinese public, who unfortunately are setting off each other. I'm just going to guess that the CCP actually fears its own 1.3 billion citizens more, as they can topple the party government more easily than the President of France. So, you know, weeks and weeks of non-stop news coverage showing a few Tibetans killing some Han Chinese in Lhasa and then blaming it on a monk who does nothing but preach non-violence and is amazingly popular everywhere other than China was probably not a good long-term strategy, either for Tibet or for China, but especially for themselves.
My prediction is that as in the past, the preconditions set will be outrageous, and both parties will walk away. China generally asks for things like having the Dalai Lama declare that not only was Tibet always part of China, but various northern regions were never even part of the Tibet part of China, and were always in fact China, and that the majority of people who live there are Tibetans or other ethnic minorities is a big coincidence. This includes the Amdo province, where he was born (and which, at the time, had been handed to China as a gift from a warlord, but historically was Tibet), so essentially he'd be saying, "I was born in China. The history books are wrong."
It's lose-lose for everyone. If China makes any kind of deal with the Dalai Lama, they'll piss off their own people. If they don't, they'll piss off the world, and they know the clock is ticking. Not just for the Olympics, but for the Dalai Lama. When he dies, political and spiritual leadership will probably pass to the 17th Karmapa (either one), who unlike the Dalai Lama is young, enthusiastic, and perhaps not so committed to saying everyone should be non-violent all the time.
As for the Dalai Lama, he will never get all of his demands, meaning that someone will feel shorted no matter what he agrees to, if he gets to agree to anything.
The situation is similar to negotiations between Israel and Hamas.
Hamas: "We want you to acknowledge we are Palestine, give us most of your land, and continue sending us free food, fuel, and electricity."
Israel: "We want you to stop shooting at us and acknowledge that our country exists."
Hamas: "Israel does not exist!"
Israel: "No more free electricity for you then. And it totally does; look out your window."
Hamas: "Then we'll tell the UN you've created a humanitarian crisis because we'll starve to death!"
Israel: "True. Fuck. Well, we'll send some tanks in to try and grab your missiles so that you can't continuously fire them at us."
Hamas: "You're invading our territory!"
Israel: "We're defending ourselves!"
Hamas: "Rabble! Rabble rabble!"
Israel: "Rabble rabble rabble!"
And etc. Here's to ... well, anything better than either of these situations.
- Dutch Proverb
In the latest news in the China/Tibet/Sudan/Zimbabwe/Olympics crisis, China's press says they have agreed to talk to envoys from the Dalai Lama, whom have in response agreed to talk to them. This is a total reversal on their stance two weeks ago, that he was a "devil in monk's robes" who was essentially responsible for everything bad that ever happened in Tibet, including the riots on April 20 where 19 Han Chinese died. But it's a good reversal, because their previous stance was bullshit.
As to the above quote, I learned it from the movie Ghost Rider, which is apparently a movie the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) needs to see, if only for the really funny scene with Nicholas Cage facing off against the ridiculously obvious bad cop/good cop interrogation. No, seriously, governments are notoriously terrible at learning this lesson, China being the most current example. After decades of nationalistic and anti-Buddhist, anti-Tibetan, and plain old anti-History government propaganda, they now have to face both the rioting world and the rioting Chinese public, who unfortunately are setting off each other. I'm just going to guess that the CCP actually fears its own 1.3 billion citizens more, as they can topple the party government more easily than the President of France. So, you know, weeks and weeks of non-stop news coverage showing a few Tibetans killing some Han Chinese in Lhasa and then blaming it on a monk who does nothing but preach non-violence and is amazingly popular everywhere other than China was probably not a good long-term strategy, either for Tibet or for China, but especially for themselves.
My prediction is that as in the past, the preconditions set will be outrageous, and both parties will walk away. China generally asks for things like having the Dalai Lama declare that not only was Tibet always part of China, but various northern regions were never even part of the Tibet part of China, and were always in fact China, and that the majority of people who live there are Tibetans or other ethnic minorities is a big coincidence. This includes the Amdo province, where he was born (and which, at the time, had been handed to China as a gift from a warlord, but historically was Tibet), so essentially he'd be saying, "I was born in China. The history books are wrong."
It's lose-lose for everyone. If China makes any kind of deal with the Dalai Lama, they'll piss off their own people. If they don't, they'll piss off the world, and they know the clock is ticking. Not just for the Olympics, but for the Dalai Lama. When he dies, political and spiritual leadership will probably pass to the 17th Karmapa (either one), who unlike the Dalai Lama is young, enthusiastic, and perhaps not so committed to saying everyone should be non-violent all the time.
As for the Dalai Lama, he will never get all of his demands, meaning that someone will feel shorted no matter what he agrees to, if he gets to agree to anything.
The situation is similar to negotiations between Israel and Hamas.
Hamas: "We want you to acknowledge we are Palestine, give us most of your land, and continue sending us free food, fuel, and electricity."
Israel: "We want you to stop shooting at us and acknowledge that our country exists."
Hamas: "Israel does not exist!"
Israel: "No more free electricity for you then. And it totally does; look out your window."
Hamas: "Then we'll tell the UN you've created a humanitarian crisis because we'll starve to death!"
Israel: "True. Fuck. Well, we'll send some tanks in to try and grab your missiles so that you can't continuously fire them at us."
Hamas: "You're invading our territory!"
Israel: "We're defending ourselves!"
Hamas: "Rabble! Rabble rabble!"
Israel: "Rabble rabble rabble!"
And etc. Here's to ... well, anything better than either of these situations.